NFL Fact or Fiction: Teams Will Overspend for Unproven QBs

Building strong supporting casts and putting more pressure on the most important position in football to deliver when it matters most makes more sense than paying $55 million per year.

Tagovailoa’s extension shocked the NFL world. / Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports

News broke of Tua Tagovailoa agreeing to his massive four-year, $2124 million contract extension while I was in Costa Mesa, Calif., visiting with the Las Vegas Raiders for my NFL training camp tour. 

Many reporters couldn’t believe how much the Miami Dolphins agreed to pay Tagovailoa, which is understandable because there are a few lingering questions about the 2020 first-round pick, one being whether he can win in the postseason. 

But this shouldn’t be surprising, because regardless of what you think about Tagovailoa as a quarterback in crunch time, most can probably say without hesitation he’s a top-16 signal-caller in the league. And it’s been well documented that there aren’t 32 legitimate franchise quarterbacks. 

It’s all about supply and demand, but it might also be about the fear of having to search for another quality quarterback if the current one hits the open market. It’s tough to compete against Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen and Joe Burrow without a reliable quarterback. And those aforementioned four QBs are tough to find, which is why teams are willing to pay $53 million per year for quarterbacks who flash high potential despite not having postseason success. 

But teams such as the Detroit Lions and Tampa Bay Buccaneers just proved they can win playoff games with veteran castoffs who had plenty of pressure to earn another contract. Jared Goff and Baker Mayfield delivered and were compensated by their teams, respectively, this offseason. 

There are various ways to build a winning roster, but let’s examine why more teams are content with making it work with their respective promising quarterbacks who have had mixed results for this week’s “Fact or Fiction.” 

Overspending for unproven QBs has gotten out of hand 

Manzano’s views: Fact

Matthew Stafford awkwardly answering questions about his contract adjustment with the Los Angeles Rams, while the Green Bay Packers and Dolphins finalized massive extensions for their respective quarterbacks, summarized the current market for the position.

Based on career resume and performance last season, you’d think Stafford would be the one signing a multi-year contract with an annual average salary north of $53 million. But the top-of-the-market money went to Green Bay’s Jordan Love and Miami’s Tagovailoa—two quarerbacks with a combined one playoff win. 

For Stafford, he got extra guaranteed money this year and plenty of uncertainty about his future in Los Angeles past this season. He’s now 14th on the pecking order in terms of annual average salary for quarterbacks, according to OvertheCap.com. There weren’t 14 quarterbacks who played better than Stafford last season, and only Mahomes and Stafford have won a Super Bowl from that list. 

But Stafford is 36 and not a 20-something quarterback searching for a second career contract. And it’s tough to knock the Rams for maintaining flexibility and keeping their options open, something other teams fail to do when quarterback contract negotiations come up. 

Age should certainly factor in when deciding whether to pay a quarterback big money, but it’s gotten to the point where teams often overlook playoff victories and clutch performances to ensure they retain their promising young quarterback who plays at an above-average level. 

This type of thinking does make some sense because teams probably can’t compete against Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs without a franchise quarterback. But it’s probably time for more teams to seriously consider other options before backing up the Brinks truck for potential rather than results. 

Will the Packers and the Dolphins or even the Jacksonville Jaguars, who just paid Trevor Lawrence $55 million per year, be much better this season than, say, the Buccaneers and Mayfield, who’s making $33 million per year? It’s debatable, but the Buccaneers were pretty good last year and have a talented roster around Mayfield. 

The San Francisco 49ers built a star-studded roster around Brock Purdy, who might cash in next offseason, and still couldn’t get by the Chiefs, but the Niners at least took them to overtime in the Super Bowl. Only Jalen Hurts, Jared Goff, Burrow and Mahomes can say they have played in the Super Bowl from the 13 QBs making more than Stafford. 

Perhaps teams should focus more on building strong supporting casts and putting more pressure on quarterbacks to deliver when it matters most. Maybe the Dallas Cowboys do that with Dak Prescott or perhaps Prescott was just waiting for the market to reset before getting his massive pay day, too. It’s probably the latter with how quarterbacks have gotten paid the past month.

The Packers were right to pay Jordan Love $55 million per year

Manzano’s view: Fact

I know I just spent 450 words saying more teams should put extra thought into exploring other options and putting more pressure on their promising quarterbacks to win in crunch time rather than quickly handing over the lucrative contract extension and hoping for the best. 

But every situation is different. Love already proved his worth after being forced to be the backup for three seasons to start his career, followed by quickly jumping into a contract year for his first season as the starting quarterback. The Packers didn’t even pick up his fifth-year option that was worth around $20 million and instead handed him a one-year, $13.5 million extension with incentives as a way to protect themselves in case Love struggled as a starter last season.

That’s pressure, and Love thrived in an uncomfortable situation. Perhaps no quarterback had more pressure than Love last season because he needed to fill the massive void left by Aaron Rodgers. He also proved he can win in the postseason after upsetting the Cowboys in the wild-card round and pushing the 49ers in the divisional playoffs. 

As for the Packers, they’re known for thinking outside the box, with their philosophy of drafting quarterbacks in the first round while having star signal-callers in the back end of their primes. Green Bay has gone from Brett Favre to Rodgers to now Love, who just earned a four-year, $220 million extension. 

Sometimes it’s better to have a unique approach than following a trend. So, yes, teams need to put more thought into acquiring talented quarterbacks rather than going all in on their current one.  

Rams WR Puka Nacua won’t top his rookie numbers in Year 2

Nacua had a dominant rookie season with 105 catches for 1,486 yards and six touchdowns. / Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Manzano’s view: Fiction

Nacua is well aware that teams will put extra focus into stopping him this season after a dominant rookie year. 

He mentioned to me after my camp visit with the Rams last week that he appreciated veteran cornerbacks Tre’Davious White and Darious Williams putting time into watching his tape from last season to push him in practices. White and Williams won matchups against the Rams’ star wideout, but Nacua had a lot more success during the camp practice I watched.

And he’s only going to get better in Year 2. 

The New Orleans Saints will have an impactful rookie class 

Manzano’s view: Fact 

The Saints’ 2024 rookie class might make an immediate impact, one that could be felt for years to come based on what I saw from my camp visit last week. 

Taliese Fuaga, this year’s first-round pick, has quickly adjusted to his new position, going from right tackle to protecting Derek Carr’s blindside. Veteran center Erik McCoy had high praise for the rookie tackle. 

Cornerback Kool-Aid McKinstry, the team’s second-round pick, had a few impressive pass breakups and is well on his way to seeing plenty of snaps in his rookie season. 

Those two rookie standouts could help the Saints end their four-year postseason drought. And don’t overlook rookie quarterback Spencer Rattler from making an impact in the future. The fifth-round pick has already proven himself enough to be Carr’s backup, and he had an impressive showing during my visit with the team in Irvine, Calif.