NFL Fact or Fiction: Vikings Need Home-Field Advantage More Than Lions

The NFC North and No. 1 seed are on the line in Detroit. Which team and coach needs the win more?

O’Connell and Campbell will face off on Sunday as the Lions and Vikings battle for the NFC North and No. 1 seed. / Matt Krohn-Imagn Images

Week 18 is always strange because you don’t know what teams have in mind for playoff seeding.

Do the Pittsburgh Steelers care about playing the Houston Texans or Baltimore Ravens in the wild-card round? They could be forced to show their hand if the Ravens start Week 18 with a win against the Cleveland Browns to clinch the AFC North. If that’s the case, Steelers coach Mike Tomlin will have the option of resting his starters or playing to win to face the Texans on wild-card weekend. 

But there’s not much to think about when it comes to the NFC North battle between the Minnesota Vikings (14–2) and Detroit Lions (14–2). The starters are definitely playing because the winner gets the division and the NFC’s No. 1 seed.

Let’s discuss the battle of the NFC North before sharing how the Ravens got the short end of the stick for Week 18. Here’s the final Fact or Fiction of the regular season.  

Vikings need home-field advantage more than Lions 

Manzano’s view: Fact

This is a tough one for multiple reasons. Both teams have two of the best home-field advantages in the NFL and both have been road warriors this season. 

The Lions posted an 8–0 record after defeating the San Francisco 49ers Monday night, the longest road winning streak in franchise history. The Vikings are 6–1 and still have one road game left this season, the massive winner-take-all Week 18 matchup in Detroit. 

If the Vikings win in Detroit, then maybe that’s our answer for this debate. Minnesota has a complete roster and depth at various positions to win in different ways. But regardless of the outcome of the NFC North showdown, the Lions get the edge because you can’t simulate postseason experience. 

Detroit lost in heartbreaking fashion in San Francisco during last season’s NFC title game. Coach Dan Campbell and his Lions players can now turn their mistakes from last year’s playoff run into learning lessons for this year’s quest to the Super Bowl. 

The Vikings recently played in a playoff game in the 2022 campaign, coach Kevin O’Connell’s first season, but that was a home loss against the New York Giants during the wild-card round. Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, T.J. Hockenson and many other key players have never experienced a road playoff game. Sam Darnold, the Vikings’ breakout quarterback, has never started a playoff game in his career. 

All this is nitpicking, but because I’m twisting my own arm, I’m siding with the well-seasoned Lions for this one.   

Dan Campbell was wrong to play his starters vs. 49ers

Manzano’s view: Fiction

ESPN analyst Troy Aikman couldn’t understand why Campbell played his starters against the 49ers, calling the Lions “a tired team” because they had their bye week way back in Week 5.

Initially, I agreed with Aikman’s take because the Lions also have a handful of injured players on the defensive side and some rest could have benefited them before the Sunday night battle with the Vikings. But the more I thought about it, the more I realized that the Lions had plenty to play for in Santa Clara despite that game not having any playoff implications. 

For starters, the Lions gained a positive psyche by beating the 49ers and getting some revenge for last season’s NFL title game. Yes, these 49ers aren’t the same team—the reigning NFC champions couldn’t overcome injuries and fatigue—but they still had plenty of star players on the field who were willing to test the Lions before the postseason. 

The Lions’ elite offense dropped 40 points against the 49ers and now appears ready to go against the Vikings’ stout defense. Also, it didn’t hurt that the Lions’ backup defenders filling in for starters gained more playing experience before the massive divisional showdown. It’s not like rest would have brought back edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson, defensive tackle Alim McNeill and running back David Montgomery. Hutchinson and Montgomery still have a chance of returning, but that’s not a possibility for another few weeks. 

Also, are we surprised that Campbell didn’t step off the gas pedal? He rarely takes the safe approach and his players love him for it. Campbell told his players they could rest once they clinched the No. 1 seed. Now that’s how you motivate as a coach. 

Amon-Ra St. Brown helped Detroit to a 40–34 win over the 49ers. / Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Kevin O’Connell should be a lock for Coach of the Year 

Manzano’s view: Fiction

If we’re going to label Vikings vs. Lions a winner-take-all game, then let’s put the NFL Coach of the Year award on the line, too. Hopefully, the Associated Press voters haven’t made up their minds and penciled in O’Connell, who is certainly deserving of the award.  

O’Connell appears to be the heavy front-runner partly because of his work with Darnold, who turned into a sleeper MVP candidate after many were quick to label him a draft bust for failed stints with the New York Jets and Carolina Panthers. But Jared Goff is also having a career year and it would be unfair to give all the credit to Campbell’s offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, possibly the most sought-after head-coach candidate in this year’s hiring cycle.  

Like O’Connell, Campbell has also led his team to 14 wins this regular season. It also says a lot about Campbell that his team managed to adjust after the devastating injury to Hutchinson in October.

Again, both O’Connell and Campbell are deserving of the award, but let’s wait to see what happens Sunday night before we name a winner. 

The NFL got it wrong with the Week 18 Saturday schedule

Manzano’s view: Fact 

The Ravens (11–5) can’t be happy about playing before the Steelers (10–6) on Saturday night. 

In a way, the league forced the Ravens, not the Steelers, to play their starters in the regular-season finale against the Browns because they need a win to secure the AFC North title. The Steelers should know the results of Ravens-Browns before they kick off against the Cincinnati Bengals for the second game of Saturday’s doubleheader. 

Tomlin could opt to rest his starters if the Ravens wrap up the division earlier in the day. That could be an advantage if a well-rested Pittsburgh team starts the postseason in Baltimore. There’s still the possibility of the Steelers playing to win even with a Ravens victory because the fifth seed would get the easier matchup against the struggling Texans, the winners of the AFC South. The Los Angeles Chargers (10–6) could jump to fifth with a win against the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday and a loss by the Steelers. But I don’t see Tomlin shying away from a wild-card matchup against a hated rival they've gotten the best of over the years.  

Don’t be surprised if the Steelers prioritize health and the Bengals gain an easy win to increase their odds of making the postseason. Perhaps this is the league’s way of trying to help Joe Burrow & Co. advance. O.K., now I’m going too far with this take, but the Ravens can’t be happy about the Saturday schedule. 

A better Week 18 Saturday schedule would have been Steelers vs. Bengals for the first game followed by Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs. Yes, the Chiefs will likely rest their starters after securing the AFC’s No. 1 seed, but the Broncos (9–7) are still playing for something because they need a win to hold off the Bengals (8–8) and Miami Dolphins (8–8) for the seventh and final seed in the AFC. And maybe the Kansas City backups make it interesting and provide plenty of drama.

But, oh well, the league already announced the schedule and the Ravens shouldn't be happy about playing first.