NFL MVP Watch 2024: Josh Allen Pulls Ahead in Narrow Race

The Bills’ signal-caller is closing in on the honor, while a running back pushes to be the first nonquarterback to take home the hardware since 2012.

Allen leads the MVP race, helping the Bills to a 13–3 record. / Tina MacIntyre-Yee/Democrat and Chronicle / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

With the end of the NFL regular season approaching, the MVP race has come into clear focus.

No player other than a quarterback has won MVP since 2012 when Adrian Peterson led the Minnesota Vikings to the playoffs with a 2,097-rushing yard season. 

Will another 2,000-yard running back take home the award, or do quarterbacks continue to hold onto the award with Josh Allen winning the honor?

5. Sam Darnold, QB, Minnesota Vikings

Darnold isn’t likely to win any hardware, but he deserves to be in the conversation. Minnesota is in position to earn the NFC’s top seed despite having low expectations from many entering the season, especially after rookie quarterback J.J. McCarthy was lost for the season this summer with a torn meniscus.

Darnold has been fantastic in almost every game this season, throwing for 4,153 yards and 35 touchdowns, helping the Vikings win 14 games, their best mark since going 15–1 in 1998. While Darnold has the help of wideouts Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, the seventh-year quarterback has been driving the offense, ranking 10th in EPA and sixth in success rate.

4. Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals will likely miss the playoffs because their defense is atrocious, but Burrow is enjoying the best statistical season of his career. After being hurt for much of the 2023 season with a wrist injury, the former Heisman Trophy winner and No. 1 pick has bounced back in epic fashion.

Burrow leads the NFL with 4,641 passing yards and 42 touchdown passes, helping receiver Ja’Marr Chase threaten to win the league’s receiving triple crown. If Cincinnati had a decent defense, Burrow would likely be MVP and an All-Pro.

However, because the team has struggled so much, Burrow’s candidacy is light on validity. No player has ever won the MVP award with his team losing eight games, and the last MVP of a team that didn’t reach the playoffs was O.J. Simpson with the Buffalo Bills … in 1973.

Burrow kept the Bengals’ narrow playoff hopes alive with an outstanding performance in Cincinnati’s OT win over the Broncos. / Albert Cesare/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

3. Saquon Barkley, RB, Philadelphia Eagles

Nobody was a better free-agent signing than Barkley, who went down the New Jersey Turnpike to turn in one of the best seasons we’ve witnessed from a running back. 

Barkley is still in play to break the all-time single-season rushing record of Eric Dickerson, who ran for 2,105 yards with the Los Angeles Rams in 1984. Barkley has 2,005 rushing yards and 15 total touchdowns, leading the way for Philadelphia to win the NFC East and earn the second seed in the NFC playoffs. 

Even if Barkley doesn’t play the Eagles’ meaningless Week 18 game against the New York Giants, he’s had one of the best seasons for a runner in history.

2. Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens

Jackson is having a truly special season—arguably his best despite already being a two-time MVP. With the Ravens fighting for the AFC North title, Jackson and running back Derrick Henry have been the engine for this contender with the defense playing a lesser role than it did a year ago. 

On the season, Jackson has thrown for 3,955 yards, closing in on the 4,000-yard threshold for the first time in his career. He’s also rushed for 852 yards and totaled 43 touchdowns, putting up video-game numbers.

If Jackson wins, it’s certainly justified. He’s been electrifying all year, carrying the team when Baltimore’s defense was a tire fire for the season’s first three months.

1. Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills

Allen is the favorite to win MVP in betting markets, and rightfully so. The Bills have been the AFC East champion for weeks, and that’s despite a slew of injuries to the defense and an offense that doesn’t have any superstar weapons after the departure of Stefon Diggs this offseason via trade. 

Allen doesn’t have the gaudy stats of Jackson and Burrow, but it’s impossible to ignore his overall impact. He has thrown for 3,731 yards and 28 touchdowns while rushing for another 531 yards and 12 scores. 

While Jackson and Burrow both dwarf Allen’s passing yards and aerial touchdowns, it’s Allen’s overarching influence along with his ability to elevate the talent around him that should earn him his first MVP.