NFL Power Rankings: Lions' Injuries Upend Super Bowl Expectations
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It’s Week 15 of the Power Rankings and we come to you with a heavy heart. As I’ve said a few places, the Detroit Lions, for the majority of this season, were the best team I’ve ever seen in person as a professional writing about the NFL. My timeframe stretches from 2010 until now which, while truncated, encompasses a good sample size of dynastic teams, electric flash-in-the-pan teams and other groups we thought would change the NFL (but did not).
Detroit was different in every conceivable way and appeared to be built with a depth that I saw as infallible at the start of the season. Only a sinister and cruel stretch of injuries could possibly upend this team.
While I don’t doubt Dan Campbell’s ability to lift the Lions and somehow make paper mache from the remaining pieces—this is still a roster most teams would beg for and an offensive line capable of grinding it out—the conversation in terms of the best suited teams to win a Super Bowl has changed overnight.
With that, let’s get into the rankings…
1. Buffalo Bills (11–3)
Last week’s ranking: No. 2
Last week’s result: beat Detroit, 48–42
This week: vs. New England
Joe Brady has been cooking the past two weeks, which is a good thing for Josh Allen but ultimately ensures that he will probably lose his second coordinator of the last three he’s worked with in Buffalo. Combine Brady’s incredible run looks, which bashed Detroit’s defensive line, along with some incredible performances from players like Ty Johnson making receiver-caliber catches early in a tone-setting first half and you have an unbeatable recipe. This is the multifaceted Bills team we’ve been waiting for, and boy do they look good.
2. Philadelphia Eagles (12–2)
Last week’s ranking: No. 6
Last week’s result: beat Pittsburgh, 27–13
This week: at Washington
I read a lot of good stuff Monday morning on the Eagles’ weaponization of empty sets against Pittsburgh, but I’ll add that backfield motion was also a critical piece of this puzzle. Some of these concepts looked familiar to the Super Bowl season under Doug Pederson. But in this particular game, they served to create space efficiently, or to freeze defenders and buy Jalen Hurts more time in the pocket indirectly. Down the stretch, Saquon Barkley will obviously matter, but the utilization of him as a decoy will matter nearly as much.
3. Detroit Lions (12–2)
Last week’s ranking: No. 1
Last week’s result: lost to Buffalo, 48–42
This week: at Chicago
It’s such a sad state of affairs that the Lions have simply been ravaged beyond repair in terms of injuries. This team was better coached, more prepared and more talented than any other in the NFL but has now lost a critical player at nearly every single position group. The David Montgomery/Alim McNiel tandem on Sunday against the Bills was a heartbreaker and, despite everything we love about the Lions and Dan Campbell, forces us to reconsider the Lions as a sure-fire Super Bowl team and even reconsider their ability to stay atop the NFC North.
4. Kansas City Chiefs (13–1)
Last week’s ranking: No. 3
Last week’s result: beat Cleveland, 21–7
This week: vs. Houston
Only 10 snaps for Carson Wentz on Sunday, but in those few drop backs you can see what a jazz musician Patrick Mahomes really is. Wentz began his time a little bit gun shy, but seemed to stick to the notes pretty clearly after a shaky start and was able to get the ball out on time. It’s interesting to pause the film when Wentz decides to take off or abandon the play and watch similar moments for Mahomes where, in some respects, the play is just beginning.
5. Minnesota Vikings (12–2)
Last week’s ranking: No. 4
Last week’s result: beat Chicago, 30–12
This week: at Seattle
A fitting tribute from Justin Jefferson, Cris Carter, Jake Reed and all manner of Vikings to the legend Randy Moss on Monday Night Football. Get well soon.
6. Green Bay Packers (10–4)
Last week’s ranking: No. 8
Last week’s result: beat Seattle, 30–13
This week: vs. New Orleans
Geno Smith was blitzed at one of the lower (17.4%) rates among quarterbacks before he exited the game on Sunday but when the Packers brought pressure, it mattered. The extra rusher on Smith’s backbreaking pick before the half that provided Green Bay with another field goal, and forced Smith into committing to a play that was bugged by an obvious miscommunication. Sam Howell was not blitzed at all…yet completed only 35.7% of his passes.
7. Pittsburgh Steelers (10–4)
Last week’s ranking: No. 5
Last week’s result: lost to Philadelphia, 27–13
This week: at Baltimore
It is decidedly un-Steelers like to be taken for a ride on a 10-plus minute drive to end a game service academy-style. However, I do think that this was the perfect time for something of this nature to happen to a veteran, riding-high team. We saw Baltimore not get their physicality matched until a postseason date with the Chiefs last year. Pittsburgh now knows what it feels like to be pushed around. My guess? They don’t love it.
8. Baltimore Ravens (9–5)
Last week’s ranking: No. 7
Last week’s result: beat New York Giants, 35–14
This week: vs. Pittsburgh
I’m not sure there’s much you can glean from this one save for the fact that Baltimore is clearly better than the Giants. This week, facing Pittsburgh for the second time in six weeks and with the Steelers coming off a gutting loss to the Eagles, is where we decide how to position Baltimore for the stretch run of the season.
9. Washington Commanders (9–5)
Last week’s ranking: No. 10
Last week’s result: beat New Orleans, 20–19
This week: vs. Philadelphia
This game didn’t really do much to change my thoughts on the Commanders. I think the ceiling is incredibly high for this team in the future, but they have run into some fortuitous scheduling and are lacking a true signature win. Imagine if we don’t get a Hail Mary, the Giants have a dependable field goal kicker and the Saints have Derek Carr (or a slightly better play call on the two-point conversion). We’re talking about a team that is lucky to be .500.
10. Los Angeles Rams (8–6)
Last week’s ranking: No. 12
Last week’s result: beat San Francisco, 12–6
This week: at New York Jets
This, I thought, was not only a defining moment for the Rams this season but a big confidence booster for Chris Shula, the team’s defensive coordinator. The lowest point total of the season comes against a 49ers team that had its signature play choked out by a good old fashioned edge-setting effort from this defense? I care that it was a rain game and we need to take that into account, but how do these back-to-back wins not put everyone on a different level emotionally?
11. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8–6)
Last week’s ranking: No. 11
Last week’s result: beat Los Angeles Chargers, 40–17
This week: at Dallas
How good is Lavonte David? At 34, he can run a delayed blitz better than almost any linebacker in the NFL, and it was clear that extra pressure was a critical part of the game plan against Justin Herbert on Sunday. Herbert was rushed by an extra man on almost 70% of his drop backs, which was the highest rate in the NFL on Sunday. David’s ability to press the line of scrimmage and feel out when he should apply the extra pressure is next level.
12. Houston Texans (9–5)
Last week’s ranking: No. 15
Last week’s result: beat Miami, 20–12
This week: at Kansas City
Going back through and watching all of Derek Stingley’s snaps against Tyreek Hill, one can’t help but believe this is a kind of baton-passing moment. I remember feeling this way while watching Darrelle Revis and Calvin Johnson during the 2010 season and, while I’m sure Hill will be a useful player for years to come, this was the kind of game that we use as a foundational example of why Stingley will finish the season as a top-10 player at the position and begin to rise into the top five.
13. Denver Broncos (9–5)
Last week’s ranking: No. 14
Last week’s result: vs. Indianapolis, 31–13
This week: at Los Angeles Chargers
Quinn Meinerz is such a fun watch. Against a team that could be dangerous on the interior, he had one of his best games of the year and almost never revealed himself to be uprooted. The guy has such a sturdy base and moves so fluidly, almost like a mobile tree stump. When he gets to the second level and puts his hands on a linebacker, it’s knockout time.
14. Los Angeles Chargers (8–6)
Last week’s ranking: No. 13
Last week’s result: lost to Tampa Bay, 40–17
This week: vs. Denver
I have been accused of being a silver linings guy and that’s a disposition I’m happy to have been saddled with. So I’ll say this after the Chargers were totally boat-raced by the Buccaneers: this isn’t indicative of some developing issue, it’s merely the point in which Los Angeles’s current level of talent and health has met the realities of their situation. I think we can all agree that this team has looked and felt different than the cardiac Chargers of the past, but Jim Harbaugh was saddled with one of the worst rosters—QB removed—in the NFL and is counting on a lot of young talent.
15. Seattle Seahawks (8–6)
Last week’s ranking: No. 9
Last week’s result: lost to Green Bay, 30–13
This week: vs. Minnesota
I’m not sure if this counts as insight, but when Mike Macdonald decided to punt late in this game and the crowd erupted with boos, it was the first time I can ever remember seeing a coach directly react to crowd noise. Macdonald muttered something like, “it’s fourth-and-five!” This is not to suggest the moment was too big for him or anything like that. If anything, he looked convinced he made the right call (and with Sam Howell back there, I’d agree). Still, just an interesting moment for a young head coach.
16. San Francisco 49ers (6–8)
Last week’s ranking: No. 19
Last week’s result: lost to Los Angeles Rams, 12–6
This week: at Miami
I think I’m throwing any Brock Purdy takes out the window from Thursday night. While I expected the 49ers to perform better against a gassed Rams team, they were completely unable to run the ball to the outside in bad weather conditions. The Rams did an excellent job of not biting on some of Shanahan’s signature smoke and mirrors, especially Byron Young. Most quarterbacks are going to be neutralized in this scenario.
17. Arizona Cardinals (7–7)
Last week’s ranking: No. 18
Last week’s result: beat New England, 30–17
This week: at Carolina
A good rebound game for the Cardinals offensive line, which looked strong and athletic when pulling out front of James Conner on Sunday. If I were Jerod Mayo, I’d be more curious why my signature unit was gashed on just 16 Conner carries on Sunday instead of issues with the play calling on offense.
18. Atlanta Falcons (7–7)
Last week’s ranking: No. 20
Last week’s result: beat Las Vegas, 15–9
This week: vs. New York Giants
I mean, golly, does this team make just about everything look so much more difficult than it has to be. I’m not sure how many of us thought we’d be watching a possible Desmond Ridder revenge drive in the waning moments of this game but here we were at 11:20 p.m. ET wondering if Atlanta could shut the door on the quarterback they jettisoned to a practice squad out West somewhere at season’s end last year.
19. Indianapolis Colts (6–8)
Last week’s ranking: No. 16
Last week’s result: lost to Denver, 31–13
This week: vs. Tennessee
I’m not sure if this has been published somewhere already and my apologies if someone has already noted this, but having gone back through all of Anthony Richardson’s play logs this season, Sunday’s game against the Denver Broncos was the heaviest usage of pre-snap motion I’ve seen. I wonder if this is a sign of him getting more comfortable with the way defenses are responding to the motion concepts.
Another disjointed point: Richardson is so chaotic at the goal line, I spent most of the time watching him backed up against his own end zone trying to calm heart palpitations. Twice he seemed to almost run back into peril. This wasn’t a bad Richardson game per se, but there is still much to iron out.
20. Miami Dolphins (6–8)
Last week’s ranking: No. 17
Last week’s result: lost to Houston, 20–12
This week: vs. San Francisco
The other side of the Derek Stingley coin for Miami: I was struck at Tua Tagovailoa on Sunday. In watching some of those same Stingley coverage snaps a second time and freeze-framing the all-22 videos at various points in the progression, one can see what Mike McDaniel was going for. There were plays that were clearly conflicting two defenders and provided open swaths of space, but with a late throw from Tagovailoa—or for some reason a throw at slower speed—the play was dead on arrival. I was surprised to see Tagovailoa at only a –0.9 completion percentage below expectation, as it felt worse to me.
21. Dallas Cowboys (6–8)
Last week’s ranking: No. 22
Last week’s result: beat Carolina, 30–14
This week: vs. Tampa Bay
In watching back Rico Dowdle’s biggest runs from Sunday, I was struck with how many of the 10-plus yard carries necessitated multiple backfield cuts to get himself into space. This wasn’t one of those games where his stats were propped up by one 60-yarder that was more a credit to good window dressing. Dowdle earned those yards and looked good doing it.
22. Cincinnati Bengals (6–8)
Last week’s ranking: No. 21
Last week’s result: beat Tennessee, 37–27
This week: vs. Cleveland
Before Sunday’s game against the Titans, only Tom Brady, Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck had five or more straight games with three-plus touchdowns. Joe Burrow has now joined that club. Of his two interceptions, the second one bothered me much less. Burrow looked to be hit as he was throwing, which seemed to affect the trajectory of a ball that probably would have elicited a big pass interference call if a little more on target.
23. New Orleans Saints (5–9)
Last week’s ranking: No. 24
Last week’s result: lost to Washington, 20–19
This week: at Green Bay
Full column on Darren Rizzi here. I am firmly in the camp that he deserves a full-time look at the head coaching position after his performance on Sunday. In a similar situation as Dan Campbell, Rizzi did a much better job of deploying late-game timeouts, and he gave an offense piloted by a quarterback who didn’t even start the game a chance at knocking off one of the better teams in the conference.
24. New York Jets (4–10)
Last week’s ranking: No. 29
Last week’s result: beat Jacksonville, 32–25
This week: vs. Los Angeles Rams
Aaron Rodgers had a day on Sunday. He had time to look out over a bad, incomplete Jaguars defense and manipulate it the way that he sees fit. He averaged well over three seconds per dropback with minimal pressure. It was an awful job by Jacksonville’s defense to not absolutely flood the backfield against a quarterback who got himself sacked out of field goal range a week ago. Still, it’s been neat to see Jets fans a little less disgruntled.
Adding to their intrigue: Rodgers by far leads the league in most dropped passes. Hope really is a powerful drug.
25. Chicago Bears (4–10)
Last week’s ranking: No. 23
Last week’s result: lost to Minnesota, 30–12
This week: vs. Detroit
A coach is going to come into Chicago, get Caleb Williams to play consistently on schedule, hone these fastballs and win Coach of the Year. There was a third-and-forever in the third quarter of this game where Williams was spinning, jumping, leaping, hurdling and eventually threw a jump ball into the end zone. It has to stop. As neat as it was for us to see in the preseason, it’s deleterious when a live game is happening.
Also, what is this?
https://x.com/BearsMarquee/status/1868864936216346728
26. Carolina Panthers (3–11)
Last week’s ranking: No. 25
Last week’s result: lost to Dallas, 30–14
This week: vs. Arizona
I think this is a game Bryce Young would like to have back. The Panthers did a nice job in the first half of minimizing the pass rush, and there were some big plays left on the field prior to the big Jalen Coker touchdown. It’s a different game if Young can somehow see what’s developing on the other side of the field here (and not put the ball on the ground as many times as he did).
https://x.com/ConorOrr/status/1868822795158958212
27. Jacksonville Jaguars (3–11)
Last week’s ranking: No. 28
Last week’s result: lost to New York Jets, 32–25
This week: at Las Vegas
I greatly enjoyed spicy Mac Jones on Sunday and am pleased to see his freak flag fly. Jones hit the Rizzler after a truly inspired and dangerous looking spin move against the Jets.
https://x.com/NFL/status/1868369248273469941
Jones also did this. Which is such a special moment. Imagine flexing on an opponent after losing six yards for absolutely no reason.
28. New England Patriots (3–11)
Last week’s ranking: No. 26
Last week’s result: lost to Arizona, 30–17
This week: at Buffalo
Albert Breer and I discussed Jerod Mayo on The MMQB podcast Monday. He is having a Joe Judge-ian end of his first season as head coach and, I would assume, needs to get a grip on the steering wheel. Calling out your coordinator—and then walking it back—is such a strange move before the start of the offseason. Who is going to call plays for you if you decide to move on knowing that you’re kind of a loose cannon up there?
For those who need a refresher on the Judge moment, click here.
29. Cleveland Browns (3–11)
Last week’s ranking: No. 27
Last week’s result: lost to Kansas City, 21–7
This week: at Cincinnati
I remember feeling similarly about the end of Joe Thomas’s career as I do about Nick Chubb and the Browns at this moment. Chubb suffered a broken foot on Sunday and, just before his 29th birthday, it’s hard not to have wanted more for him at this point. Injuries are what they are, but without Chubb and Myles Garrett, this is beyond a non-serious franchise.
30. Tennessee Titans (3–11)
Last week’s ranking: No. 31
Last week’s result: lost to Cincinnati, 37–27
This week: at Indianapolis
All three of Will Levis’s interceptions were bad on Sunday, and two of the three were difficult to excuse. I wasn’t sure about Brian Callahan to this point, but I think the Titans are in the unenviable position of “veteran QB or bust” this offseason as they try and legitimize the decision to move on from Mike Vrabel. A rookie is going to make…a lot of plays like that, and I have a hard time imagining that many of the top QB prospects atop this draft are going to play markedly better than Levis has to this point in 2024.
31. Las Vegas Raiders (2–12)
Last week’s ranking: No. 32
Last week’s result: lost to Atlanta, 15–9
This week: vs. Jacksonville
Getting a delay of game penalty on a fourth down amid a potential game-winning drive is simply unserious. Then, calling a passing play a country mile ahead of the sticks (and somehow picking it up) is equally absurd. In the Raiders’ defense, they were called for an absolutely weak roughing the passer call, but Antonio Pierce had to outshine the officiating crew in this one.
32. New York Giants (2–12)
Last week’s ranking: No. 30
Last week’s result: lost to Baltimore, 35–14
This week: at Atlanta
Tim Boyle gets a bad wrap, man. Every time he goes into a game his college stats resurface and we ask “why is this guy still in the NFL?” Well, I can’t answer that question, but I can say that I admire the hell out of him completing a few high-difficulty passes against Baltimore’s defense right when he came into the game. Kyle Hamilton came on a screamer for his first snap, and the Ravens also brought pressure on the second.
Side note: Is it just me or does it seem like Malik Nabers putting his hands to his head in apparent frustration after Boyle barely gets a pass off to Tyrone Tracy (and Tracy dropping it) is not helping? We all know he’s great. We all know that, when the time comes and he gets the ball on a regular basis, it’s going to be spectacular. But give this absolutely decimated offense five seconds to figure itself out.