NFL Week 12: Best Games, Key Matchups, Fantasy Tips, Best Bets and Predictions

All eyes will be on the “Harbaugh Bowl” when the Chargers host the Ravens at SoFi Stadium on Monday Night Football. Plus, the 49ers are looking to save their season against the Packers.

Jacobs ranks third in the NFL with 838 rushing yards. / Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images

Many might have said “yuck” while scrolling through the NFL Week 12 schedule. 

The week starts with the Cleveland Browns hosting the Pittsburgh Steelers in a Thursday-night game that has no business being in prime time. The slate also includes potential lopsided games, such as the Kansas City Chiefs vs. Carolina Panthers and the Houston Texans vs. Tennessee Titans. 

That’s the downside of having six teams enjoy bye weeks in the same week, but the upcoming schedule is not so bad if you focus on the last four games, starting with the two Sunday games slotted for 4:25 p.m. ET. The San Francisco 49ers will be looking to save their season against the Green Bay Packers, who are looking to keep pace with the Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings in the competitive NFC North race. 

The NFC West race is even tighter, with all four teams separated by one game. The Seattle Seahawks, who are coming off their upset win against the 49ers, will be looking to knock off the Arizona Cardinals from the top of the divisional standings. There could be many points scored in Seattle with two explosive offenses dueling in the other 4:25 p.m. ET matchup Sunday. 

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The Los Angeles Rams will have the luxury of knowing how the other teams in the NFC West did before kicking off against the Philadelphia Eagles for Sunday Night Football. But the Rams can’t get caught up with scoreboard watching because the Eagles have been one of the hottest teams in the NFL with a six-game winning streak, including last week’s victory against the Washington Commanders. 

All eyes will be on the “Harbaugh Bowl” when Jim’s Los Angeles Chargers host John’s Baltimore Ravens at SoFi Stadium for Monday Night Football. Both Harbaugh brothers have their respective teams in the AFC playoff picture. The Chargers are coming off a signature win against the Cincinnati Bengals. The Ravens will be looking to bounce back after their loss against the Pittsburgh Steelers. 

We’ll be keeping a close eye on these four games for our best games of Week 12. Here’s everything you need to know, including Gilberto Manzano’s key matchups, Matt Verderame’s key stats, Michael Fabiano’s who to start and who to sit in fantasy, Iain MacMillan’s best bets and Conor Orr’s prediction for each game.   

Start ’em/Sit ’em | MMQB Staff Picks | NFL Betting Picks

SUNDAY

San Francisco 49ers (5–5) at Green Bay Packers (7–3)

When/TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, Fox

Spread: Packers -1.5 (over/under: 47.5)

Matchup to watch: Packers RB Josh Jacobs vs. 49ers’ defensive front. San Francisco’s defense has quietly gone under the radar because of the team’s disappointing 5–5 record. But this unit is only allowing 302.2 yards per game, sixth-best in the NFL. It’s going to be critical for Jacobs to provide balance to the Jordan Love–led offense. Jacobs ranks third in the league with 838 rushing yards. —Manzano 

Key stat: These are two of the best offenses in the NFL. San Francisco is second in yards per play at 6.4, while Green Bay is right behind at 6.3. Defensively, which teams can get a big stop in the red zone? The Packers are 19th in that area, while the 49ers are 23rd. —Verderame

Start ’em/sit ’em: Brock Purdy is tough to sit, as he’s been solid over his past five games. In that time, he has scored 17-plus points in each game and 23-plus points three times. Next up is a date with the Packers, who have allowed just two quarterbacks to beat them for more than 16.4 points. Green Bay has also allowed the fifth-fewest points per game to quarterbacks at home. —Fabiano

Best bet: 49ers +105. I can’t quit betting on the 49ers. Despite their record, they’re still second in the NFL in net yards per play at +1.3, which tells me they’re much better than the box scores of their games indicate. I have some concerns about the Packers, mainly Love, who has been an average quarterback this season, ranking 15th in EPA+CPOE composite and 17th in success rate. I think that’ll lead to the 49ers bouncing back with a win. —MacMillan

SI’s pick: I like the Packers because, as I’ve said in the past, once this team starts scoring in the red zone—even like a mid-level NFL franchise—we’re going to see Green Bay’s points per game take off. This is a big day for Nick Sorensen and the 49ers’ defense, and we’ll see how they fare after a bit of a late-game collapse a week ago against a more dynamic offense. —Orr

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Arizona Cardinals (6–4) at Seattle Seahawks (5–5)

When/TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, Fox

Spread: Cardinals -1.5 (over/under: 47.5)

Matchup to watch: Seahawks WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba vs. Cardinals’ secondary. There’s a strong argument to be made that Smith-Njigba has surpassed DK Metcalf as Seattle’s No. 1 wide receiver. The second-year wideout known as “JSN” stepped up when Metcalf was sidelined for two games and bailed out the team in last week’s win over the 49ers. (Geno Smith told our Albert Breer after the game that JSN is becoming a future All-Pro.) The Cardinals’ defense, which is allowing 218.5 passing yards per game, will have its hands full against Smith-Njigba, who has 60 catches for 678 yards and three touchdowns this season. —Manzano   

Key stat: Look for the Cardinals to run early and often. Only the Ravens average more yards per carry than Arizona, which comes into the game at 5.2 YPC. Meanwhile, Seattle is 25th defensively in the metric at 4.8 YPC allowed. —Verderame

Start ’em/sit ’em: Geno Smith has been inconsistent, scoring fewer than 16 fantasy points in three of his past five games. He also has a tough matchup this week, facing a Cardinals defense that has allowed the fewest points per game to quarterbacks in the past four weeks. What’s more, only one quarterback has beaten Arizona for more than 14.7 points over its past six games. —Fabiano

Best bet: Cardinals -108. Early in the season I had some concerns with the Cardinals due to a defense that was underperforming. They have seemingly fixed that side of the football as they rank 11th in the NFL in opponent EPA per play since Week 7. Arizona went into its bye red-hot, ranking third in Net Yards per Play (+2.1) in their past three games and I think it’s time we start taking this team seriously. —MacMillan

SI’s pick: In my 100 bold predictions column from June, I predicted a long end-of-season win streak for the Cardinals and also picked them to win nine games. So, it’s safe to say I am thrilled this pick is materializing before my eyes. The Cardinals are both young and old. Finesse and fierce. A 10/10 watch rating on most weeks. I’m taking Arizona. —Orr

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The Rams' defense has been bad against perimeter receivers, allowing the fourth-most points per game to the position this season. So Smith could be a good fantasy play this week. / Eric Hartline-Imagn Images

Philadelphia Eagles (8–2) at Los Angeles Rams (5–5)

When/TV: 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC, Peacock

Spread: Eagles -3 (over/under: 48.5)

Matchup to watch: Rams WR Puka Nacua vs. Eagles CB Quinyon Mitchell. Nacua has found a rhythm after being plagued by injuries to start the season. He was unstoppable in last week’s win over the New England Patriots, recording seven catches for 123 yards and one touchdown. Last year’s rookie sensation will now go toe-to-toe with one of the top rookies from the 2024 class. Mitchell has quickly made an impact as a shutdown corner in Philadelphia. —Manzano 

Key stat: Can the Rams convert on third down? Los Angeles is a pedestrian 27th in third-down conversion rate at 33.9%, while Philadelphia has been excellent defensively at 34.7%, eighth-best in football. —Verderame

Start ’em/sit ’em: DeVonta Smith’s numbers have not been good over the past two weeks, as he’s scored a combined 10.3 points on just nine targets. Still, I’m sticking with him in what could be a high-scoring game against the Rams. Their defense has been bad against perimeter receivers, too, allowing the fourth-most points per game to the position this season. —Fabiano

Best bet: Under 48.5. Not only is this my favorite bet of Week 12, but this may just be my favorite bet of the NFL season so far. The Eagles and Rams have been extremely impressive defensively the past few weeks. Going back to Week 6, they rank first and third in the league in opponent EPA, as well as first and sixth in opponent success rate. It’s also worth noting that the Rams rank 25th in red zone offense, scoring touchdowns on just 50% of their trips, while the Eagles rank fifth in red zone defense (46.43%). Drives resulting in field goals instead of touchdowns is a great way for a game to end with 49 or fewer points. —MacMillan

SI’s pick: I’m changing my pick. In the staff picks this week, I went with the Eagles but I am flip-flopping. While the Patriots were in almost every second of their matchup with L.A. last week and Matthew Stafford’s four-touchdown game could be fool’s gold, the Eagles are not infallible. Sean McVay has been fascinated by the Vic Fangio scheme, he’s studied it and on Sunday, he’ll get the best of it. —Orr

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MONDAY

Baltimore Ravens (7–4) at Los Angeles Chargers (7–3)

When/TV: 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN, ABC

Spread: Ravens -3 (over/under: 48.5)

Matchup to watch: Chargers WR Ladd McConkey vs. Ravens’ secondary. McConkey has quickly emerged as Justin Herbert’s reliable slot receiver. Herbert leaned on McConkey during the chaotic back-and-forth battle against the Bengals, with the second-round rookie receiver grabbing six catches for 123 yards. Baltimore’s secondary has struggled most of the season, but had a strong performance against Pittsburgh last week. Herbert won’t have many options if the Ravens can contain McConkey. —Manzano 

Key stat: Look for the Ravens to dominate inside the Chargers’ 20-yard line. Baltimore converts at a league-best 77.8% in the red zone, while Los Angeles has been fantastic in these spots under defensive coordinator Jesse Minter, ranking second with just 40.9% of trips resulting in a touchdown against. —Verderame

Start ’em/sit ’em: Justin Herbert has been on fire over the past four weeks, scoring 19-plus points in every game including two with more than 24. He should be a top-10 fantasy quarterback this week, as he faces a Ravens defense that has allowed 17-plus fantasy points to quarterbacks seven times, including six with more than 20 points and two over 30 points. —Fabiano

Best bet: Chargers +3. There’s plenty to be said about the Ravens’ defense, which has already cost them more than one win this season, but what I’m focusing on in this game is penalties. The Ravens lead the NFL with 92 this season, 10 more than the next most penalized team. They also lead the NFL in penalty yards with 763. Now, they take on a Chargers team that has committed the fourth-fewest penalties. That’s something that can make all the difference in a game between two playoff teams such as the Ravens and the Chargers. —MacMillan

SI’s pick: I have Baltimore in staff picks but I don’t love either option in this game. The Ravens have struggled to throw the ball deep of late and they seem to be hitting that ultra frustrating midseason slump. Los Angeles has the vibes and the ascending talent that we still don’t have the book written on. The Chargers are the fun pick but I’ve already gotten too aggressive this week, so I’m sticking with John Harbaugh. —Orr

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