NFL Week 18: Playoff Scenarios, Key Matchups, Best Bets and Predictions

The Ravens will try to lock down the AFC North against the Browns, while the Vikings and Lions will meet to decide the NFC North and the conference’s top seed.

Jackson and Henry will try to lock down the AFC North title against the Browns on Saturday. / Sam Greene / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

We will all be waiting for Sunday Night Football when the Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings meet in Game 272, the final regular-season matchup of 2024 with plenty on the line. 

The winner will clinch the NFC North title and the NFC’s No. 1 seed. The loser will start the postseason on the road as the fifth seed. Multiple playoff teams will have to wait until the final game of Week 18 to find out where, when and who they’re playing on wild-card weekend. 

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers could be one of the teams waiting for the SNF results. But, first, they need to handle business against the New Orleans Saints to clinch the NFC South. A Tampa Bay loss would open the door for the Atlanta Falcons to steal the division with a victory over the Carolina Panthers.

Order Now. SIP February Sportsperson. Get Sports Illustrated's Sportsperson of the Year issue. dark

The AFC North is also up for grabs, with the Baltimore Ravens needing a win over the Cleveland Browns on Saturday to secure the division crown. The Pittsburgh Steelers could take the AFC North if Baltimore loses and they beat the Cincinnati Bengals in the second game of Saturday’s doubleheader.

Many playoff teams will be resting their starters in Week 18, but there’s still plenty that needs to be settled before the Lions host the Vikings. Here’s everything you need to know about the five best games of the week, including Gilberto Manzano’s key matchups, Matt Verderame’s key stats, Iain MacMillan’s best bets and Conor Orr’s prediction for each game.      

NFL Betting Picks | MMQB Staff Picks

SATURDAY

Cleveland Browns (3–13) at Baltimore Ravens (11–5)

When/TV: 4:30 p.m. ET, ESPN, ABC, ESPN+

Spread: Ravens -17.5 (over/under: 41.5)

Matchup to watch: Browns WR Jerry Jeudy vs. Ravens CB Marlon Humphrey. Baltimore’s secondary has drastically improved in the second half of the season largely because of Humphrey, who recorded his sixth interception of the season last week against the Houston Texans. Humphrey will have his hands full against Jeudy, who has a career-high 84 catches for 1,166 yards and four touchdowns this season. —Manzano

Key stat: Dorian Thompson-Robinson has thrown for one touchdown and 10 interceptions in his career, the worst ratio of any quarterback with at least five starts this century. Baltimore’s defense ranks 18th in EPA per dropback for the year but first since Week 11. —Verderame

Best bet: Ravens -17.5. DTR has no business being an NFL quarterback. He ranks dead last by a huge margin in adjusted EPA per play this season. As a result, there’s no way I can trust the Browns to cover the spread at any number, especially against the Ravens, who still need to win to lock up the AFC North. The Ravens enter Week 18 leading the NFL in net yards per play at +1.7 while the Browns are 20th at -0.9, a difference of 2.6 yards per play between the two teams. Don't be afraid of laying the big number with Baltimore. —MacMillan

SI’s pick: Ravens. Until Cleveland shows me a seriousness in actually trying to win games at this point, I have a hard time picking them to beat a real contender. This really isn’t a “break down the matchup” kind of scenario here. It’s that one team is putting a better product on the field. Period. —Orr

---

Cincinnati Bengals (8–8) at Pittsburgh Steelers (10–6)

When/TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN, ABC, ESPN+

Spread: Bengals -1.5 (over/under: 48.5)

Matchup to watch: Bengals RB Khalil Herbert vs. Steelers’ defensive front. Herbert stepped up after Chase Brown exited with an ankle injury in the fourth quarter last week against the Denver Broncos. If Brown isn’t cleared to play, it’s going to be on Herbert to provide Joe Burrow with a balanced attack. Burrow can certainly pick apart the Steelers, but more dropbacks means more opportunities for T.J. Watt to wreck the game Saturday. —Manzano 

Key stat: Pittsburgh’s offensive line has struggled to block this season, ranking 26th in sack rate at 8.8%. Meanwhile, the Bengals have been terrible defensively but can rush the passer. Cincinnati is 12th in pressure rate and Trey Hendrickson is tied for the league lead in sacks with 14. —Verderame

Best bet: Bengals -1.5. The Steelers have historically struggled late in the season and this year is no different. They enter the final week of the regular season ranked 23rd in net yards per play at -0.3 including dead last in that stat at -1.3 over their past three games.

The Bengals’ defense, however, has improved compared to their early-season numbers. Since Week 11, they’ve been 17th in opponent EPA per play, four spots above the Steelers’ defense, which is 21st. That’s good enough for me to lay the 1.5 points in a pivotal game Saturday night. —MacMillan

SI’s pick: I like the Bengals to continue rolling here. Cincinnati’s defense was an unheralded star of the team’s overtime victory over the Broncos last week and knows it needs this victory to even be considered for the postseason on long-shot odds. I think Joe Burrow was serious when he said he—and everyone else—was keeping an eye on who was playing like they’d want to return next year. —Orr

SUNDAY

Penix and the Falcons need a win over the Panthers on Sunday to have any chance at securing a playoff berth. / Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

Carolina Panthers (4–12) at Atlanta Falcons (8–8)

When/TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS

Spread: Falcons -7.5 (over/under: 48.5)

Matchup to watch: Falcons WR Drake London vs. Panthers’ secondary. London has already developed chemistry with rookie quarterback Michael Penix Jr., who will be making his third career start Sunday. London was Penix’s go-to target in last week’s loss to the Washington Commanders, connecting for seven catches and 106 yards. London has already set career highs in receptions (90), receiving yards (1,084) and receiving touchdowns (7). Carolina is allowing 219.4 passing yards per game. —Manzano 

Key stat: Which one of these young quarterbacks can take advantage of facing a bad third-down defense? Carolina allows an NFL-worst 49.3% conversion rate, while Atlanta sits 30th at 44.5%. —Verderame

Best bet: Panthers +7.5. The Falcons need to win this game, but at the end of the day, I have no interest in laying eight points in this spot. The Panthers’ offense has figured something out in recent weeks and should be able to move the ball well, especially considering how much Atlanta has struggled to figure out mobile quarterbacks. Bryce Young will move the ball with his arm and legs and will look more comfortable against the Falcons than he did in either start last year. —MacMillan

SI’s pick: I lone-wolfed the Carolina Panthers this week in our MMQB staff picks. As maligned as this Panthers defense has been, Ejiro Evero is a good coordinator and I wonder if he has a curveball up his sleeve for rookie Michael Penix Jr. The Falcons are coming off a gutting loss to the Commanders that has made them a long shot for the postseason and could be limping emotionally. —Orr

---

New Orleans Saints (5–11) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9–7)

When/TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX

Spread: Buccaneers -13.5 (over/under: 43.5)

Matchup to watch: Buccaneers WR Mike Evans vs. Saints’ secondary. Baker Mayfield will likely have many targets for Evans, who needs 75 receiving yards to reach 11 consecutive seasons with at least 1,000 yards. That would tie the NFL record, which currently belongs to the legendary Jerry Rice. But Mayfield can’t force balls to Evans, with Tampa Bay needing a win to secure the NFC South title. New Orleans allowed 242 passing yards to Las Vegas’s Aidan O’Connell last week. —Manzano 

Key stat: The Saints have been a sieve defensively throughout much of the year, constantly put in bad positions by a terrible offense. New Orleans has permitted a league-worst 2,113 yards after catch, while Baker Mayfield has thrown for 2,399 yards after catch, second only to Jared Goff. —Verderame

Best bet: Saints +13.5. This line was at Buccaneers -14 but has since moved down a point, which tells me some sharps like the Saints at that number. The big reason I’m backing New Orleans in this one is the possibility Derek Carr will suit up. He continues to insist he’s going to try to come back if he can and Darren Rizzi has said they’ll re-evaluate him this week. Carr ran some game-like situations in practice last week but, ultimately, it was determined he wasn’t ready to go. If he ends up getting the nod for the Saints’ final game of the season, we’re going to have a great ticket on Saints +13. If he doesn’t get the start, then we'll have to hope the Saints can cover an almost two-touchdown spread with Spencer Rattler at quarterback.  —MacMillan

SI’s pick: While Darren Rizzi has plenty to coach for at this point as an active candidate for New Orleans’s head job, the Buccaneers are coming off an absolute throttling this past week of the Panthers, the seventh time they have scored 30 or more points this season. Liam Cohen is dialed in and the Baker Mayfield–Mike Evans mind meld is as good as it's been. —Orr

---

The Vikings will need another big game from Darnold to have any chance at knocking off the Lions at Ford Field on Sunday. / Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images

Minnesota Vikings (14–2) at Detroit Lions (14–2)

When/TV: 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC, Peacock

Spread: Lions -2.5 (over/under: 56.5)

Matchup to watch: Lions TE Sam LaPorta vs. Vikings LB Blake Cashman. After a slow start to the season, LaPorta has stepped up in the past three weeks, recording a combined 17 catches for 218 yards and two touchdowns. Jared Goff tends to lean on LaPorta more during high-scoring games, giving opposing defenses a different look. Cashman, who had 1.5 sacks last week vs. the Green Bay Packers, will need to know LaPorta’s whereabouts on the field. LaPorta has 53 catches for 663 yards and seven touchdowns this season. —Manzano 

Key stat: This could be a game of huge passing plays. While the Vikings rank first in defensive EPA per play (-0.096), they’ve allowed 2,309 air yards, third-most in the NFL. However, Detroit has surrendered the second-most at 2,378 yards, only fewer than the Ravens. —Verderame

Best bet: Vikings +124. The Detroit Lions have shown everyone that their defense can only take some many injuries. The Packers, Buffalo Bills and San Francisco 49ers have put up 30-plus points against them in three of the past four weeks, and they can only get away with that for so long. It’s going to come back and bite them sooner than later and this is the game it’s going to cost them. The Vikings are one of the best-coached teams in the NFL and they can win games on both sides of the football. Their offense can run the ball and throw the ball, and their defense can cause a lot of issues for opposing offenses. They rank inside the top 10 in EPA per play on both sides of the football. This Lions team is going to be able to beat teams they can get into an offensive shootout with, but the Vikings aren’t one of them.  —MacMillan

SI’s pick: I am buying heavily into Minnesota’s defense and the fact that Detroit’s secondary is ripe for punctuation after looking vulnerable last week against the 49ers. Before Brock Purdy threw a handful of gutting picks, he put one of the best quarterback halves of the season on the board for a nothing-to-play-for offense missing its two best playmakers. —Orr

---

All best bet odds courtesy FanDuel.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call  1-800-GAMBLER.