NFL Week 5: Best Games, Key Matchups, Fantasy Tips, Best Bets and Predictions

Vikings QB Sam Darnold and Bills WR Stefon Diggs will have revenge on their minds, the Chiefs will be without several offensive starters and a big AFC North clash highlights this week’s schedule.

Diggs will face his old team on Sunday after four years with the Bills. / Thomas Shea-Imagn Images

Jump to a matchup

1. New York Jets (2–2) vs. Minnesota Vikings (4–0) at London
2. Baltimore Ravens (2–2) at Cincinnati Bengals (1–3)
3. Buffalo Bills (3–1) at Houston Texans (3–1)
4. Dallas Cowboys (2–2) at Pittsburgh Steelers (3–1)
5. New Orleans Saints (2–2) at Kansas City Chiefs (4–0)

Football fans in the United Kingdom will be treated to a game on Sunday that might feature the MVP front-runner in the NFL this season. 

No, Aaron Rodgers isn’t on track to win his fifth career MVP, but perhaps that changes if he leads the New York Jets to an upset win against Sam Darnold’s undefeated Minnesota Vikings when they clash at London’s Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. 

The Vikings have been regulars in our best games of the week story because they continue to beat the best teams in the NFL. Not many gave them credit for beating the New York Giants in Week 1, but they have defeated the San Francisco 49ers, Houston Texans and Green Bay Packers in the past three games. 

Darnold might want this week’s game the most because he spent the first three seasons of his career with the Jets, where he played poorly behind a dismal supporting cast. Stefon Diggs could also want revenge when his Houston Texans face his old team, the Buffalo Bills, on Sunday.

The New Orleans Saints started hot this season, but have cooled off with a two-game losing streak. Not many are picking them in Week 5 to beat the other undefeated team in the league, the Kansas City Chiefs. But the Saints might be arriving at Arrowhead Stadium at the right time because the Chiefs will be playing without Rashee Rice, Isiah Pacheco and Marquise “Hollywood” Brown. 

We will also be keeping tabs on the Dallas Cowboys vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers, and the Baltimore Ravens vs. Cincinnati Bengals. Here’s everything you need to know about the five best games of Week 5, including Gilberto Manzano’s key matchups, Matt Verderame’s key stats, Michael Fabiano’s who to start and who to sit in fantasy, Jennifer Piacenti’s best bets and Conor Orr’s prediction for each game.  

Start ’em/Sit ’em | MMQB Staff Picks | NFL Betting Picks

Sunday

Darnold leads the NFL with 11 touchdown passes. / Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images

New York Jets (2–2) vs. Minnesota Vikings (4–0) at London

When/TV: 9:30 a.m. ET, NFLN

Spread: Vikings -2.5 (over/under 40)

Matchup to watch: Jets WR Garrett Wilson vs. Vikings’ secondary. Wilson recently called out his offense for lacking creativity in how to get him the ball. Wilson hasn’t had a game with more than 60 yards receiving this season. Expect Rodgers to look his way often, but that could present issues against Minnesota’s advantageous defense. —Gilberto Manzano

Key stat: The Vikings have gotten plenty of chunk plays in the passing game, ranking second at 8.8 yards per attempt. However, the Jets’ defense has been stingy in this regard, tied for second-best at 5.6 YPA allowed. —Matt Verderame

Start ’em/sit ’em: Wilson has not met expectations after four weeks, averaging just 10.9 fantasy points. The good news is that Wilson has a great matchup across the pond this week against the Vikings. Their defense has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to enemy perimeter receivers, and Wilson is due to have a big fantasy performance. —Michael Fabiano

Best bet:  Jets +2.5. The Jets are in a better spot across the pond. The Vikings have allowed the most passing yards (1,188) and passing completions (109) with six passing touchdowns through the first four games. Rodgers should be able to feast. On the other side, the Jets have allowed just 663 passing yards and 66 completions and an average of just 5.58 yards per attempt to opposing passers. —Jennifer Piacenti

SI’s pick: I picked the Jets in an upset special. Here’s the thing about the London game. It’s still such an inexact science, Jets owner Woody Johnson lived there as a U.S. Ambassador and maybe, somehow, someway, there is some sort of small built-in advantage. I don’t think it’s an overreaction to say this is the defining game plan of the season for both of the Jets’ coordinators, but they have played well against great teams sans Rodgers (think: Chiefs and Eagles last year) and the Vikings are not going to be perfect forever. —Conor Orr

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Henry leads the NFL in rushing with 480 yards. / Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images

Baltimore Ravens (2–2) at Cincinnati Bengals (1–3)

When/TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS

Spread: Ravens -2.5 (over/under 49)

Matchup to watch: Ravens RB Derrick Henry vs. Bengals’ defensive front. Cincinnati has struggled to stop the run, allowing all of its opponents this season to crack 100 rushing yards, including 170 yards against the Patriots in Week 1. The Bengals are going to need to make quick improvements against Henry, who recorded 199 rushing yards against the Bills, or this AFC North matchup could be over by halftime. —Manzano

Key stat: The Bengals rank 31st in pressure rate at 12.8%. Meanwhile, the Ravens are allowing a sack rate of 3.5%, second-best in the league.  —Verderame

Start ’em/sit ’em: Mark Andrews has been bad this season, scoring fewer than four points in three of his four games, including two where he has been held to zero. His snaps are way down, and his targets are mostly nonexistent. This trend makes it difficult to continue to blindly start Andrews. —Fabiano

Best bet: Justice Hill over 13.5 rushing yards. The Bengals have allowed the ninth most rushing yards to opposing runners, an average of 4.48 yards per carry.  Hill has had at least four carries in each of his past three games,  exceeding this prop in all of them, and he’s averaging 5.4  yards per attempt. 

SI’s pick: Baltimore. I haven’t seen enough from the Bengals to be able to trust them whatsoever. I also wonder if the Ravens will continue to run their precision Henry attack at the spaces in the Bengals’ defensive line where D.J. Reader used to make that a no-fly zone. The Bengals are also 31st in Run Stop Win Rate. —Orr

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Buffalo Bills (3–1) at Houston Texans (3–1)

When/TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS

Spread: Bills -1 (over/under 47.5)

Matchup to watch: Diggs vs. Bills CB Rasul Douglas. Diggs will be fired up to face his former team, which could make him the focal point of the Texans’ offense. The Bills’ defense is coming off an ugly performance against the Ravens, but the unit has been better against the pass this season. Perhaps Diggs gets a few single matchups with Nico Collins on the opposite side. —Manzano

Key stat: This game might come down to which team can stop the other in the red zone. Buffalo and Houston are third and tied for fourth, respectively, in red-zone percentage at 73.3% and 72.7%. —Verderame

Start ’em/sit ’em: Revenge! Diggs is going to be super motivated to put up a great stat line against the team that traded him. While Collins remains the best fantasy receiver in Houston, Diggs is still putting up good numbers and ranks ninth among wideouts after four weeks. Suffice it to say, starting Diggs this week is a smart fantasy decision.  —Fabiano

Best bet: Diggs over 5.5 receptions. This prop is in plus-money and we are going to push our chips in on the revenge game narrative. Dell could still be out or limited in this game, and even with Collins as a target hog, Diggs already has 25 catches this year for an average of more than six per game. The Bills have allowed an average of exactly 5.5 catches per game to receivers in the slot, so we’ll bet on a motivated Diggs. —Piacenti 

SI’s pick: Texans. I am taking Diggs for no other reason than I think it’s time for the Bills to get hip-checked a little bit. This team always plays its best ball after periods of struggle and the Texans, while not on a losing streak, haven’t been playing their best football, either. Look for a low-scoring affair with DeMeco Ryans’s game plan for Josh Allen making the slightest of differences in this one. —Orr

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Prescott and the Cowboys will be without Parsons and Lawrence, who will miss time with injuries. / Robert Deutsch-Imagn Images

Dallas Cowboys (2–2) at Pittsburgh Steelers (3–1)

When/TV: 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC, Peacock

Spread: Steelers -2.5 (over/under 44)

Matchup to watch: Steelers WR George Pickens vs. Cowboys CB Trevon Diggs. Justin Fields will look to get the ball out quickly with the Steelers’ offensive line dealing with injuries. He’s had a strong connection with Pickens through four games. But if Diggs can take Pickens out of the flow of the offense, the Cowboys could steal this matchup in Pittsburgh. Diggs struggled against Malik Nabers last week. —Manzano

Key stat: The Steelers are allowing 3.7 yards per carry, a figure only bested by the Ravens. This could be a problem for Dallas, which sits 31st in rushing yards per carry at 3.5. —Verderame

Start ’em/sit ’em: Dak Prescott has not been great this year, scoring fewer than 17 points in three of his first four games. That trend could continue against the Steelers, who haven’t allowed a quarterback to beat them for more than 15 points this season. Pittsburgh has also allowed an average of fewer than 14 points per game to quarterbacks at home dating back to last year. —Fabiano

Best bet: Cowboys +2.5. I won’t bet on the Cowboys to win with their long list of injuries and against a tough defense, but I am willing to bet they will keep it close. I like Fields, but Prescott has more experience in prime time. —Piacenti

SI’s pick: Pittsburgh. Until I see a healthy, aggressive and reimagined Cowboys defense, I’m not going to treat this like the vaunted unit that we’ve all played up over the past two seasons. The goal for this one is for Fields to continue adding the high-percentage runs out of the backfield while eliminating the major, turnover-worthy plays that can cost the Steelers points. —Orr

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Mahomes is off to an uneven start with six touchdown passes and five interceptions. / Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Monday

New Orleans Saints (2–2) at Kansas City Chiefs (4–0)

When/TV: 8:15 p.m. ET, ABC, ESPN+

Spread: Chiefs -5.5 (over/under 43)

Matchup to watch: Saints RB Alvin Kamara vs. Chiefs DT Chris Jones. The Saints are going to need Kamara to establish the run to allow Derek Carr to take shots downfield to speedy wideouts Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed. Jones has once again been a consistent game-wrecker for opposing offenses. The Chargers had no answers for Jones last week. —Manzano

Key stat: The Saints have been fantastic on third down, ranking second with a 53.2% conversion rate. Kansas City has been solid defensively in this area at 14th, allowing 34.7% conversions on third down. —Verderame

Start ’em/sit ’em: Patrick Mahomes isn’t a reliable fantasy starter, averaging just 14.4 points in his first four games. He was mediocre in the second half of last year, too, so this isn’t a small sample size. And with Rice out, Mahomes is even less attractive in a bad matchup against the Saints. Their defense has allowed the fourth-fewest points to quarterbacks. —Fabiano

Best bet: Saints +5.5. The Chiefs will have Travis Kelce as the primary receiver while running out Kareem Hunt, a 29-year-old running back. The Chiefs may win this one, but the Saints will at least keep it close. Take the points for the underdogs, who have the healthier, more explosive offense in addition to a top defense. —Piacenti

SI’s pick: Respect to colleague Gilberto Manzano who is lone-wolfing the Saints pick this weekend. At some point, the Chiefs have to lose. They’re not going to go undefeated. However, I don’t have the fortitude to go with him on this journey. I think we will be pleasantly surprised by a Chiefs’ offense that can manufacture points despite their skill-position players continuing to get ravaged by injury. Look for more Kelce games to come. —Orr

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