NFL Week 7: Best Games, Key Matchups, Fantasy Tips, Best Bets and Predictions

An NFC North showdown for first place in the division and the NFC headlines this week’s schedule. Plus, a rematch of a pair of Super Bowls.

Jefferson had 18 catches for 333 yards and two touchdowns against the Lions last season. / Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images

Jump to a matchup

1. Detroit Lions (4–1) at Minnesota Vikings (5–0)
2. Houston Texans (5–1) at Green Bay Packers (4–2)
3. Seattle Seahawks (3–3) at Atlanta Falcons (4–2)
4. Kansas City Chiefs (5–0) at San Francisco 49ers (3–3)
5. Baltimore Ravens (4–2) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4–2)

Week 7 in the NFL might make up for the many one-sided games that took place last week. 

There are a handful of toss-ups, including a Super Bowl rematch, a first-place showdown in the NFC North, and a few intriguing interconference games.  

The San Francisco 49ers have shaken off a slow start to the season and are getting closer to full strength as they get ready to host the Kansas City Chiefs, the team that defeated the 49ers in two Super Bowls the past five seasons. 

But 49ers vs. Chiefs might not be the best game on the Week 7 schedule—just don’t tell Taylor Swift fans that. The Detroit Lions travel to Minneapolis to face the Minnesota Vikings with first place on the line in the division and the conference. The undefeated Vikings, who are coming off a bye week, aren’t new to facing top competition after beating the 49ers, Houston Texans, and Green Bay Packers earlier this season. This will be the Lions’ first game without edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson, who sustained a season-ending leg injury last week. 

The battle between the Texans and Packers could be as good as the two games mentioned above. The Texans lead the AFC South and recently welcomed back Joe Mixon, who ran for 102 yards against the New England Patriots after missing the prior three games. The Packers are chasing the Lions and Vikings in the division, but they could have the most complete roster in the NFC, with Jordan Love leading a high-scoring offense, and a defense that has generated a league-high 17 takeaways. 

We’ll also keep tabs on the intriguing Monday night clash between the Baltimore Ravens and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and the matchup between the Seattle Seahawks and Atlanta Falcons. Here’s everything you need to know about the five best games of Week 7, including Gilberto Manzano’s key matchups, Matt Verderame’s key stats, Michael Fabiano’s who to start and who to sit in fantasy, Jennifer Piacenti’s best bets and Conor Orr’s prediction for each game.  

Start ’em/Sit ’em | MMQB Staff Picks | NFL Betting Picks

SUNDAY

Detroit Lions (4–1) at Minnesota Vikings (5–0)

When/TV: 1 p.m. ET, Fox

Spread: Vikings -1.5 (over/under 49.5)

Matchup to watch: Lions WR Jameson Williams vs. S Camryn Bynum. Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores is known for his aggressive blitz calls, but that could backfire against the speedy Williams. It will be up to Bynum to help his cornerbacks in case Williams breaks free downfield. Williams is averaging 22.8 yards per reception and has three receiving touchdowns. —Manzano

Key stat: Which team can handle the blitz? Minnesota ranks second in blitz percentage while Detroit is sixth. And, now, without Aidan Hutchinson for the remainder of the season, that number might increase for the Lions. —Verderame

Start ’em/sit ’em: Williams has been mostly consistent for fantasy managers, scoring 14-plus points in four of his five games. He’s scored 33.7 points in his past two games, and he’s done that despite seeing just six targets. I’d keep him in lineups in what could be a shootout against a defense allowing the most points per game to wideouts. —Fabiano

Best bet: Justin Jefferson over 92.5 receiving yards (-115). Jefferson is averaging 90 receiving yards per game this season, and the Lions have allowed an average of 211 yards per game to opposing wideouts. Jefferson will get at least half of those. —Piacenti

SI’s pick: Lions. The Vikings can’t finish the season undefeated, and this is a weak reasoning for copping out and not picking them against the Lions but it’s the reason I’m using nonetheless. I think, at least for one week, Detroit will still be buoyed by the throttling of Dallas and will be able to maintain possession against an excellent Vikings defense, edging them in a close one. —Orr

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Mixon returned last week from an ankle injury to rush for 102 yards. / Brian Fluharty-Imagn Images

Houston Texans (5–1) at Green Bay Packers (4–2)

When/TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS

Spread: Packers -2.5 (over/under 47.5)

Matchup to watch: Texans RB Joe Mixon vs. Packers’ defensive front. Mixon quickly picked up last week where he left off in Week 2, when he sustained an ankle injury against the Bears that sidelined him for three consecutive games. The Texans’ offense has been at their best with Mixon on the field, including in last week’s 41–21 victory when he rushed for 102 yards. The Green Bay defense is allowing 110 rushing yards per game, which is the eighth-best in the NFL. —Manzano

Key stat: The Texans are allowing 4.9 net yards per pass attempt, fourth-best in the league. However, this will be arguably their biggest test of the season facing Jordan Love and his hoard of pass catchers at Lambeau Field. —Verderame

Start ’em/sit ’em: Tucker Kraft is tough to sit, but I’d temper expectations when he faces the Texans. Their defense has allowed just one tight end to beat them for more than 7.2 points, including Dalton Kincaid and Cole Kmet, and only two teams have allowed fewer points per game to tight ends. The position has averaged just 21.5 receiving yards against them, too. —Fabiano

Best bet: Josh Jacobs under 63.5 rushing yards  (-115). The Texans have been stingy vs. running backs this season, allowing just 3.83 yards per carry and 78 rushing yards per game. Jacobs may be the bell cow, but fellow RB Emanuel Wilson, who is averaging seven carries per game,  and a game script that should be a shootout should keep Jacobs from going over this mark on the ground. —Piacenti

SI’s pick: Packers. I thought Houston looked great against New England a week ago, but it also flashed some vulnerabilities. Had New England possessed more talent, there would have been a few windows for them in the first half to get back into the game. Green Bay is going to be a much tougher opponent, and won’t be bulled over by Joe Mixon and Dameon Pierce. Meanwhile, Green Bay will be able to score at a much greater clip. This Packers team is also going to score with Houston more easily. —Orr

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Cousins is still searching for consistency after his recovery from a torn Achilles. / Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

Seattle Seahawks (3–3) at Atlanta Falcons (4–2)

When/TV: 1 p.m. ET, Fox

Spread: Falcons -3 (over/under 51.5)

Matchup to watch: Seahawks WR DK Metcalf vs. Falcons CB A.J. Terrell. It’s no coincidence that Seattle has dropped its past three games while Metcalf has failed to make an impact on the field. Metcalf is going to need a monster game in Atlanta to help his team get back on track. But that won’t be easy against Terrell, who has plenty of safety help with Justin Simmons and Jessie Bates III. —Manzano

Key stat: The Seahawks are allowing 5.0 yards per carry this season, with only three teams giving up more. Look for the Falcons to test Seattle’s run defense with a heavy dose of Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier. —Verderame

Start ’em/sit ’em: Kirk Cousins was a disappointment last week, scoring only 12.5 points despite a great matchup in Carolina. Still, he’s worth a look against the Seahawks. Their defense has allowed three different quarterbacks to beat them for 22-plus points, including Daniel Jones. What’s more, all three of those signal-callers beat Seattle for 22-plus points in each of their past three games. —Fabiano

Best bet: Allgeier over 37.5 rushing yards (-115). The Seahawks have been generous to running backs this season, allowing an average of 144.7 rushing yards per game and 5.0 yards per carry. The Falcons will continue to use both their runners. Allgeier has averaged 5.5 yards per carry this season and has had no fewer than six carries in a game since Week 1. Allgeier, who had 105 yards against Carolina last week, easily surpasses this mark. The Seahawks have allowed 38-plus yards to seven runners this season. —Piacenti 

SI’s pick: In the MMQB staff picks, I am lone-wolfing a Seahawks team this week I have a lot of belief in. I know we’re all high on the Falcons after their win over the Panthers last week but their performance doesn’t change the fact that Cousins needs to perform more consistently against top-tier defenses. I like Mike Macdonald’s chances against a quarterback who cannot alter the math at the line and be a part of the running game. —Orr

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Reid, Nagy and Mahomes are trying to get the Chiefs offense rolling this season after back-to-back Super Bowl championships. / Denny Medley-Imagn Images

Kansas City Chiefs (5–0) at San Francisco 49ers (3–3)

When/TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, Fox

Spread: 49ers -1.5 (over/under 47.5)

Matchup to watch: Chiefs TE Travis Kelce vs. 49ers LB Fred Warner. The Chiefs’ offense has leaned on Kelce after a wave of injuries sidelined a handful of playmakers. Kelce stepped up with a combined 159 receiving yards and 16 receptions during wins against the Chargers and Saints. But now Kelce is facing Warner, possibly the best linebacker in the game. —Manzano

Key stat: The 49ers have not beaten the Chiefs in the Patrick Mahomes era, going 0–4, including two Super Bowl defeats. This might be a tough spot for them as well, considering Kansas City is 10–3 straight-up and 11–1–1 against the spread as an underdog with Mahomes under center. —Verderame

Start ’em/sit ’em: Brandon Aiyuk might have gotten paid a fortune, but you’d never know it by his totals. He’s been held to single digits in all but one game, and he’s near the bottom of the league among receivers in catch rate. The Chiefs, fresh off a bye, have also allowed the fourth-fewest PPR points per game to perimeter receivers. At best, Aiyuk is a risk-reward flex. —Fabiano

Best bet: George Kittle anytime TD (+150). The Chiefs have allowed the most receiving yards (82 per game) and two receiving touchdowns to tight ends this season. Kittle leads the San Francisco 49ers with five touchdowns this season, and he’s Brock Purdy’s first read 24% of the time—second only to Deebo Samuel. This payout is almost too good to be true. —Piacenti

SI’s pick: I took the 49ers because, like the Vikings, the Chiefs have to lose at some point. While Kyle Shanahan has struggled to master the Mahomes experience—and, I mean, who hasn’t?—Kansas City nearly lost a game to a similarly built team in Baltimore. Purdy is playing like a top-five quarterback this year and it doesn’t seem to matter who is in the 49ers’ backfield. The 49ers just keep grinding out the tough yards. —Orr

MONDAY

Mayfield leads the NFL with 15 touchdown passes. / Matthew Hinton-Imagn Images

Baltimore Ravens (4–2) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4–2)

When/TV: 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN

Spread: Ravens -3.5 (over/under 48.5)

Matchup to watch: Buccaneers RB Bucky Irving vs. Ravens LB Roquan Smith. Perhaps the best way to contain the Ravens’ explosive offense is by keeping them on the sideline for long stretches. The Buccaneers might have finally found a consistent rushing attack to control time of possession. Irving has impressed as a rookie (58 carries, 328 yards), but Tampa Bay also has Sean Tucker (14 carries, 136 yards in Week 6) and Rachaad White. —Manzano 

Key stat: Only the Jacksonville Jaguars have allowed more passing yardage than the Ravens through six weeks. Conversely, Tampa Bay has thrown for 230.3 yards per game, 11th-best in football. —Verderame

Start ’em/sit ’em: Zay Flowers has been on a hot streak, scoring 19 or more fantasy points in two consecutive games while seeing a combined 21 targets.  He should remain in lineups this week against a Buccaneers defense that’s given up six touchdowns and the seventh-most points per game to wideouts. This should be a high-scoring affair, so keep Flowers in your lineups. —Fabiano

Best bet: Bucs +3.5 (-114). The Ravens should be favored, but not by this much. Baker Mayfield leads the league with 15 passing touchdowns and an impressive 71% completion rate, and he’s facing a Ravens defense allowing the most passing yards and 11 passing touchdowns this season. Mayfield continues to be disrespected, even at home. Take the 3.5 points. —Piacenti 

SI’s pick: Baltimore is white hot right now, but Tampa Bay is outscoring nearly everyone in its path. When a team such as Baltimore brings in the advantage of a multi-faceted secondary with some veteran players, I still tend to side with the tandem of veteran quarterback and veteran wide receivers to find a way around the challenges and score just enough to win the game. —Orr

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