These Running Backs Might Not Be on Packers’ Draft Board

With Josh Jacobs and AJ Dillon, the Green Bay Packers’ backfield seems to be in good hands. For now, anyway. Here’s a look at who fits and who might not fit in the 2024 NFL Draft.

Florida State RB Trey Benson / Alan Youngblood/Gainesville Sun / USA

 

GREEN BAY, Wis. – In free agency, the Green Bay Packers signed Josh Jacobs to a four-year contract and re-signed AJ Dillon. If the 2024 NFL Draft were only about 2024, they’d be set in the backfield.

Of course, this year’s draft isn’t only about this season. In 2020, with Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams atop the depth chart, general manager Brian Gutekunst used a second-round pick on Dillon. It’s possible – perhaps even likely – that Gutekunst will use an early pick on a running back in this year’s draft.

During the 19 drafts conducted by Gutekunst and his predecessor, the late Ted Thompson, the Packers drafted 13 running backs. That does not include Ty Montgomery, who was drafted as a receiver but made his mark in the backfield. That history helps narrow the field.

Height

The Packers don’t like short players at any position. Jones was the shortest running back at 5-foot-9 1/8. That Kentucky’s Ray Davis (5-foot-8 3/8) had a predraft visit with the team would suggest there’s a significant amount of wiggle room. Nonetheless, these players could be off the board:

- Michigan’s Blake Corum (5-foot-7 3/4).

- Southern Mississippi’s Frank Gore Jr. (5-foot-7 5/8).

- Troy’s Kimani Vidal (5-foot-7 7/8).

- Monmouth’s Jaden Shirden (5-foot-8).

- TCU’s Emani Bailey (5-foot-7 3/8).

Weight

Playing late-season games at Lambeau Field requires a certain style of back. Shifty scatbacks might be effective in September or on FieldTurf, but they aren’t especially useful on a cold January at Lambeau. That’s why the average weight of their 13 drafted running backs is 220.4 pounds. Four weighed 230–plus pounds; only two weighed less than 210 – Jones (209) and Johnathan Franklin (205).

Using a hypothetical cutoff of 200 pounds, these players might not be on the board:

- Oregon’s Bucky Irving (192 pounds).

- Louisville’s Jawhar Jordan (193 pounds).

- Monmouth’s James Shirden (187 pounds).

- Texas’ Keilan Robinson (191 pounds)

Hand Size

Big hands mean better ball security. That’s important all the time, of course, but it’s especially important when winter arrives in Green Bay.

The historic Scouting Combine average is just a shade over 9 1/4 inches. Only three of Green Bay’s drafted backs had hands of 9 1/4 inches or smaller. Last year’s seventh-round pick, Lew Nichols, had 9-inch hands. Devante Mays was the real outlier with 8 5/8-inch hands. Perhaps that was overlooked in the seventh round in 2017 because he was 230 pounds with 4.52 speed in the 40.

With 8 7/8-inch hands, Davis had a visit with the Packers. So, using a hypothetical cutoff of 8 3/4 inches, these players might not be on the board:

- Southern Mississippi’s Frank Gore Jr. (8 5/8).

- Marshall’s Rasheen Ali (8 5/8).

- Louisville’s Jawhar Jordan (8 1/2).

- USC’s Austin Jones (8 1/4).

RAS, 40 and Shuttle

The Packers are sticklers to testing numbers at most positions. Most, but not all. Running back is an exception.

The 40-yard dash does seem to matter. The historic Combine average is 4.59 seconds. All but beefy Eddy Lacy (4.64) beat that mark. Not that big-time speed has been enticing. Jones and Franklin were the fastest at 4.49 seconds.

The 20-yard shuttle is important at most positions. The historic Combine average is 4.29 seconds. Of the 10 drafted backs who ran the shuttle, five were faster and five were slower. Mays was the slowest at 4.53.

Relative Athletic Score is a formula that combines a player’s height, speed, 40 time and other testing results into one position-based score ranging from 0 (worst-prospect ever) to 10 (best prospect ever). It’s an especially useful tool for running backs. Just look at the physical differences between Jones and Dillon. Jones (9.35) and Dillon (9.20) posted elite scores. Six were better than 8.30 and eight were better than 7.60. 

That would suggest RAS - or whatever tool Green Bay uses - is important. However, Lacy (5.28) and Williams (5.14) were barely above average.

Using 40-yard times and below-average RAS, these players might not be on the board.

- Oregon’s Bucky Irving (2.23 RAS).

- Washington’s Dillon Johnson (4.68 in the 40 at 217 pounds).

- Missouri’s Cody Schrader (4.62 in the 40 at 202 pounds).

- Southern Mississippi’s Frank Gore Jr. (4.69 in the 40 at 198 pounds).

- Georgia’s Daijun Edwards (4.70 in the 40 at 213 pounds).

- Georgia’s Kendall Milton (4.62 at 225 pounds).

What About Josh Jacobs?

The Raiders used their first-round pick on Jacobs in 2019. At 5-foot-10 and 220 pounds, he ran his 40 in 4.64 seconds and finished with a RAS of 5.87. Had the Packers been in the market for a running back, you wonder if they would have crossed him off the list. His hands are an enormous 10 1/8 inches.

Best Running Back Fits For Packers

Who could fit for the Packers when looking solely at the measurables through the lens of Green Bay’s history? Most of the class is the answer. Really, of the top groups of backs, only Michigan’s Corum and Oregon’s Irving fall short.

Perhaps our premise will be faulty, but our belief is the Packers will be looking for an explosive back to complement the established, powerful duo of Jacobs and Dillon. If that’s the case, the best fits:

- Florida State’s Trey Benson: 4.39 40. 9.76 RAS.

- Tennessee’s Jaylen Wright: 4.38 40. 9.81 RAS.

- Purdue’s Tyrone Tracy: 4.48 40, 9.78 RAS.

- Clemson’s Will Shipley, Clemson: 4.45 40, 9.58 RAS.

- Louisville’s Isaac Guerendo: 4.33 40, 9.90 RAS.

And a couple others with speed but would push hand-size limits:

- USC’s MarShawn Lloyd, USC: 4.46 40, 8.62 RAS.

- Memphis’ Blake Watson: 4.40 40, 8.91 RAS.

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