Big, Historic Change in Packers-Vikings Point Spread

The Green Bay Packers (11-4) and Minnesota Vikings (13-2) will meet on Sunday at U.S. Bank Stadium. The Packers could be a rare favorite given the power of the opponent.

Jordan Love and the Green Bay Packers won at the Minnesota Vikings last year. / Dan Powers/USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin

GREEN BAY, Wis. – After the Minnesota Vikings beat the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday to improve to 13-2, they were 2-point favorites for this week’s game against the Green Bay Packers.

By Christmas morning, the Packers (11-4) had moved to a 1-point favorite. After shifting back in Minnesota’s direction, Green Bay was a 1-point favorite as of Friday night. The line was 1.5-point favorites at some sportsbooks, including at FanDuel, where 59 percent of the money is on Green Bay even though 52 percent of the bets are on Minnesota.

According to Ed Salmons, the vice president of risk management for SuperBook Sports, sharp money has pushed the line Green Bay’s way.

“Professional money is slowly moving the Packers to the favorite,” Salmons said.

“For the most part,” he added, “I think the Packers are much more thought of than the Vikings from our part of the world.”

Nonetheless, it’s wild to see the 13-win Vikings, playing at home against a team they beat earlier in the season, as an underdog. Indeed, if that line holds until the 3:25 p.m. kickoff, it would be unbelievably rare.

Dating to 1972, according to Stathead, only 11 times has a team that finished with 14-plus wins been an underdog. Most of those games – such as the juggernaut Packers’ memorable victory over the Lions in 2011 – came in the final week of the regular season, when key players got the day off.

In fact, only five times has a team that finished with at least 14 wins been an underdog in a game that was not the final game of the regular season.

Two of those games came this century, and they both came with an asterisk.

- In 2022, when the Eagles were 4.5-point underdogs without quarterback Jalen Hurts at Dallas.

- In 2005, with the AFC’s No.1 seed wrapped up, Peyton Manning played only one quarter for the Indianapolis Colts against the Seattle Seahawks.

Finally, for a true comparison, you have to go all the way back to Dec. 7, 1986. The Washington Redskins were 3.5-point favorites at home against the New York Giants. Both teams were 11-2.

“The Packers are a team everyone knows is as talented as anyone and are really close. They are just so young,” Salmons said.

Salmons came up with a fun historical nugget.

In 2010, the Packers as the No. 6 seed won their wild-card matchup and were road favorites against the No. 1 seed, the Atlanta Falcons, in the divisional round. The Packers won that game, won as road favorites at Chicago in the NFC Championship Game and won the Super Bowl.

If the Vikings, who are 7-1 at home, beat the Packers on Sunday, they’d have a chance to be the No. 1 seed. If the Packers win their wild-card game, they could play at Minnesota in the divisional round and could be the road favorite again.

This is a huge game for the Packers. If they lose, they would be in danger of falling to the No. 7 seed. That would mean a wild-card game at the No. 2 seed (the Philadelphia Eagles at the moment) and a potential divisional-round game at the No. 1 seed (the Detroit Lions at the moment).

That would be a brutal path.

“The Packers are going to win the first playoff game unless they have to go to Philly, who I still think they could beat,” Salmons said. “Detroit and that defense, which has been decimated, don’t want to see the Packers early.”

The Packers’ four losses have come against three teams ahead of them in the NFC standings: the Lions (twice), Eagles and Vikings.

However, one reason why the sharp money is on the Packers is because the Vikings’ strength of victory is only. 387. Five of the other six projected NFC playoff teams have a higher mark. The Lions’ 13 wins have come against opponents with 20 more wins than the Vikings’ opponents.

Green Bay’s strength of victory is .411.

“Obviously, we only have one more chance here this week,” quarterback Jordan Love said on Thursday. “So, as I’ve talked about before, we’ve got to be able to go win these games against the really good teams in the league and set ourselves up for the situation we’ll be in for the playoffs – on the road playing good teams. So, definitely a good test this week.”

The Packers are 11-4 with a good chance to finish at least 12-5. No third-place team has ever finished with 12 wins.

Whoever Green Bay plays in the wild-card round, it will be a battle-hardened group because it plays in the NFC North.

“I think we’ll find out when it comes to playoff time, but I believe that,” coach Matt LaFleur said. “I think that just all of us going against one another, it’s forced you to be at your best every week. I mean, you can’t afford a slip up just to keep up with everybody. I would say that it’s forced you to bring it every day.”

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