Packer Central

Could Jordan Love Throw for 5,000 Yards?

Expectations are sky high for Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love entering the 2024 season-opening showdown against the Philadelphia Eagles.

Bill Huber

Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love (10) reacts after a touchdown against the Dallas Cowboys during the 2023 playoffs.
Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love (10) reacts after a touchdown against the Dallas Cowboys during the 2023 playoffs. / Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports
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GREEN BAY, Wis. – In its “Bold predictions for all 32 NFL teams in 2024,” Pro Football Focus predicted a 4,500-yard passing season for Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love.

The author, Trevor Sikkema, considered raising the bar.

“Making this ‘Jordan Love 5,000-yard passing season’ was tempting because that headline is slick,” he wrote.

Ultimately, Sikkema settled on 4,500 yards because the Packers are a good team and might be running out the clock in the fourth quarters of games. However, the talent of Love and perhaps “the most diverse group of pass catchers” in the NFL could have Love rising to meteoric heights in his second year as the starter.

“If he can hit the ground running to start 2024, he’ll eclipse 4,500 passing yards and perhaps even make a run at 5,000,” Sikkema concluded.

In Year 1 as Green Bay’s starter, Love in 17 games finished seventh in the NFL with 4,159 passing yards.

Love stumbled his way through most of the first half of last season – he was last in the league in completion percentage through nine games – before becoming a dominant player down the stretch.

In his final eight games, Love threw for 2,150 yards. That ranked No. 1 in the NFL. That’s an impressive feat. However, when projected over 17 games, that’s still only 4,569 yards. That’s a long way from 5,000.

Throwing for 5,000 yards would require Love to average 294.12 yards per game. He had only two such games last season. Even in his playoff dissection of the Cowboys, Love threw for just 272 yards because the scoreboard demanded he throw only 21 passes.

His growth – and the growth of his young pass-catchers – could change the math. The team’s big-play threat, Christian Watson, didn’t miss a single practice from the start of OTAs in May through the end of training camp last week due to injury after starting and finishing the regular season sidelined by hamstring injuries.

Four of Love’s premier targets, receivers Jayden Reed and Dontayvvion Wicks and tight ends Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft, are entering Year 2 in the NFL.

All of that experience should add up to more production.

However, in NFL history, there have been only 15 seasons of 5,000 passing yards. Even the advent of the 17-game season in 2021 hasn’t made a major impact. In those three seasons, only Justin Herbert and Tom Brady in 2021 and Patrick Mahomes in 2022 hit 5,000 yards.

Last year, the Dolphis’ Tua Tagovailoa led the NFL with 4,624 passing yards.

Love’s predecessor, Aaron Rodgers, ranks ninth all-time in passing yards. His 4,643 passing yards en route to winning his first NFL MVP in 2011 – one of the greatest seasons of quarterback play the game has ever seen – represents his only 4,500-yard season.

At FanDuel Sportsbook, Love’s over/under has been set at 3,825.5 yards. That seems incredibly low considering Love beat that total by more than 300 yards in his debut season. However, the ever-present chance of injury at a vulnerable position has to be baked into the cake.

Last season, Love finished seventh in passing yards, second with 32 touchdowns and 11th with a 96.0 passer rating.

His overriding goals in 2024 revolve around team success but, individually, he’s looking to raise the bar.

“Goals, stat-wise, just have better stats than last year,” Love said on Sunday. “You can’t control a lot of that [NFL MVP voting]. For me, at the end of the day, it just comes down to being consistent – trusting my fundamentals and going out there and being the best player I can be. I take it one game at a time but, definitely, you can’t control MVP and stuff like that. it just comes down to going out there and being the best version of you every day.”

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Bill Huber

BILL HUBER

Bill Huber, who has covered the Green Bay Packers since 2008, is the publisher of Packer Central, a Sports Illustrated channel. E-mail: packwriter2002@yahoo.com History: Huber took over Packer Central in August 2019. Twitter: https://twitter.com/BillHuberNFL Background: Huber graduated from the University of Wisconsin-Whitewater, where he played on the football team, in 1995. He worked in newspapers in Reedsburg, Wisconsin Dells and Shawano before working at The Green Bay News-Chronicle and Green Bay Press-Gazette from 1998 through 2008. With The News-Chronicle, he won several awards for his commentaries and page design. In 2008, he took over as editor of Packer Report Magazine, which was founded by Hall of Fame linebacker Ray Nitschke, and PackerReport.com. In 2019, he took over the new Sports Illustrated site Packer Central, which he has grown into one of the largest sites in the Sports Illustrated Media Group.