Does Vegas Know Something About Jordan Love’s Availability?

The Green Bay Packers are underdogs for Sunday’s game at the Tennessee Titans. Why? DraftKings Sportsbook’s Johnny Avello pulled back the curtain.

Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love (10) drops to throw during the second half against the Philadelphia Eagles in Brazil. Will he be available for Sunday vs. the Titans? / Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

GREEN BAY, Wis. – Before hosting the Indianapolis Colts last week, Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love was listed as questionable on Friday’s injury report.

On Saturday, Love was downgraded to doubtful.

The betting line didn’t budge.

This week, the winless Tennessee Titans on Monday were 2.5-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook for Sunday’s game against the Packers in Nashville.

The line didn’t move on Wednesday, when Love returned to practice.

The line didn’t move on Thursday morning, when ESPN.com’s Adam Schefter said via a source: “I wouldn’t be surprised if he plays this week.”

The line didn’t move on midday Thursday, when Love practiced for a second consecutive day.

The line didn’t move on Friday morning, when NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport said: “He at least has a realistic chance of being out there against the Titans. … He’s got a shot.”

In other words, sportsbooks didn’t believe Love was going to play last week – the Colts’ favorite status baked into the cake no matter the developments. And sportsbooks don’t believe Love is going to play this week, either.

“I know that Love’s at practice and he’s wearing a brace and all that but, from what I’m reading, I think this is more of a decoy,” DraftKings’ Johnny Avello told Packers On SI on Friday. “I think they’ll use him against Minnesota next week. All games are important, don’t get me wrong, but that’s a division matchup. So, we’re holding right now that he’s most likely not going to play.”

The company line all week has been that Love has been limited participation at practice.

“Limited. Limited. That’s all you’re going to get from me,” coach Matt LaFleur said after Thursday’s practice.

How does a sportsbook such as DraftKings sift through all the noise?

“I read something this morning that was kind of interesting that said next week could be very promising,” Avello said. “So, if next week’s very promising, what does this week actually mean? That it’s not so promising.”

Presumably, the Packers will list Love as questionable on Friday’s injury report. That will have no impact on the line, either.

At some point, there will be some clarity on Love’s status. If the Packers do not elevate Sean Clifford from the practice squad on Saturday, that would send an unmistakable signal that Love will start. Or, the drama could go all the way up to the announcement of the inactives at 10:30 a.m. on Sunday.

“If it’s announced that he’s going to play, then we’re just going to take the game down and we’re going to make an adjustment and then the Packers will go to the favorite. We can do that quickly,” Avello said. “We can do that certainly on the fly. There’s no issues there.

“But we have to have a game up right now. Our clients want to see a game up. They want to be able to bet the game. Whether they’re going to bet or wait – we’ve already taken some money on the game – but I would think that more people are going to wait to see if he will be in or not be in before they unload on it.”

In the early line, posted when Love was healthy, the Packers were 4.5-point favorites at DraftKings, Avello said. Thus, in the sportsbook world, the presence of a healthy Love is worth seven points. If it’s clear Love is going to start, there will be a new line posted and the prop bets, such as Josh Jacobs’ rushing yardage, will be adjusted.

For now, there is consensus: The Titans are 2.5-point favorites at DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM.

As of Friday morning, only DraftKings had a Week 4 line posted. The Packers are 2.5-point favorites over the undefeated Vikings.

So, if you were to place your bets on Love’s return, the money seems to be on next week’s home game against Minnesota.

So, does Vegas know something solid on Love’s status?

“People think we know something. We’re not in the business of trying to pick winners. We’re in the business of trying to put up a fair betting line,” Avello said Because we work on the bigger issue, the juice, where people put up 11 to win 10 on either side they want to bet. So, all our stuff is data-driven, power ratings. That’s how we come up with the two teams, the equalizer being the point spread between the two teams.

“So, we know nothing. What we know is data. And that’s what the line is, that’s what it’s based on.”

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