Examining Packers’ Roster Through Lock-O-Meter

Through our patent-pending Lock-O-Meter, we break down the chances of all 91 members of the Green Bay Packers landing a spot on the 53-man roster that will be selected on Aug. 27.

Green Bay Packers quarterback Sean Clifford (6) hands the ball to running back Emanuel Wilson at training camp on Aug. 14. / Tork Mason / USA TODAY NETWORK

GREEN BAY, Wis. – When NFL roster cuts are due on Aug. 27, the dream of making the Green Bay Packers’ roster will die for 38 players. Even allowing for the 69-man roster that coach Matt LaFleur talks about because of the 16-man practice squad, time is running out for about two-dozen players.

Using our patent-pending Lock-O-Meter 2024, which players have a roster spot locked up? Who is on either side of the roster bubble?

The new-and-improved Lock-O-Meter, which got some new batteries and a liberal dousing of WD-40 as part of its routine maintenance, places players into seven categories based on the likelihood of making the 53-man roster.

Here is where things stand ahead of a preseason game at the Denver Broncos on Sunday night and the preseason finale at Lambeau Field against the Baltimore Ravens on Saturday.

100 Percent Locks: 36

Quarterbacks: Jordan Love.

Running backs: Josh Jacobs.

Receivers: Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed, Christian Watson, Dontayvion Wicks.

Tight ends: Luke Musgrave, Tucker Kraft.

Offensive line: LT Rasheed Walker, LG Elgton Jenkins, C Josh Myers, RT Zach Tom, G/C Sean Rhyan, OL Jordan Morgan.

Defensive ends: Rashan Gary, Preston Smith, Lukas Van Ness, Kingsley Enagbare.

Defensive tackles: Kenny Clark, Devonte Wyatt, TJ Slaton, Karl Brooks, Colby Wooden.

Linebackers: Quay Walker, Isaiah McDuffie, Eric Wilson, Edgerrin Cooper, Ty’Ron Hopper.

Cornerbacks: Jaire Alexander, Eric Stokes, Keisean Nixon, Carrington Valentine.

Safeties: Xavier McKinney, Javon Bullard, Evan Williams.

Specialists: P Daniel Whelan.

No explanation is needed here. These are the starters, critical backups and top draft choices. Of note, this list includes nine defensive linemen. Will that be all the team carries into the season?

90.0 Percent to 99.9 Percent Locks: 3

Quarterbacks: None.

Running backs: MarShawn Lloyd.

Receivers: None.

Tight ends: None.

Offensive line: G/C Jacob Monk

Defensive ends: None.

Defensive tackles: None.

Linebackers: None.

Cornerbacks: None.

Safeties: Anthony Johnson.

Specialists: None.

With another good performance against the Broncos, you can put Monk in the 100 percent category. After a so-so start to camp, he’s really cranked things up. He might not have ideal size but he’s got the athleticism, strength and mentality. He has future-starter potential.

As a third-round pick, Lloyd obviously is in no danger of being released, but his injured hamstring means there’s at least a chance he’ll open the season on injured reserve.

Even with the addition of the impressive rookie tandem of Bullard and Williams, Johnson continues to get at least a smattering of first-team reps alongside Xavier McKinney.

65.0 Percent to 89.9 Percent Locks: 8

Quarterbacks: Sean Clifford.

Running backs: AJ Dillon.

Receivers: Grant DuBose, Bo Melton.

Tight ends: None.

Offensive line: None.

Defensive ends: None.

Defensive tackles: None.

Linebackers: None.

Cornerbacks: Corey Ballentine, Kalen King,

Safeties: Kitan Oladapo.

Specialists: LS Matt Orzech.

Dillon would seem to be in a good spot because of his proven prowess in the passing game. Not only is he a good pass protector but he ranked third among all running backs last season in YAC per catch. (Bet you didn’t know that.) However, the Packers aren’t financially tied to him if they were to move forward with Jacobs, Lloyd and Emanuel Wilson.

The receiver battle will be fascinating, with DuBose, Melton and Malik Heath worthy of a spot or two. DuBose, who parlayed a string of good practices into an excellent performance at Cleveland, and Melton, who had an impactful stretch run last year, are a tier ahead of Heath in the Lock-O-Meter.

Like at receiver, the cornerback depth has been impressive. Ballentine saved the Packers’ bacon last year and King has been a surprise standout as the third-to-last pick of the draft.

As a talented fifth-round pick, Oladapo’s place on the roster probably is safe, but making a play or two on defense or special teams in these next two games would be helpful. After missing the entire offseason and the start of training camp due to a broken toe sustained at the Scouting Combine, he really hasn’t done anything to earn a spot.

Orzech dispatched rookie Peter Bowden twice – the former Wisconsin standout needs to improve his snap speed – but hasn’t been automatic.

50.1 Percent to 64.4 Percent Locks: 5

Quarterbacks: Michael Pratt.

Running backs: None.

Receivers: None.

Tight ends: Ben Sims, Tyler Davis.

Offensive line: OT Andre Dillard.

Defensive ends: None.

Defensive tackles: None.

Linebackers: None.

Cornerbacks: None.

Safeties: None.

Specialists: K Anders Carlson.

Pratt seems to be nipping at the heels of Clifford in the backup battle. It will be interesting to see if the preseason reps reflect that reality after Clifford threw 19 passes to Pratt’s seven last week. It's easy to see their places in the Lock-O-Meter flip-flopping if Pratt lights up the Broncos.

At tight end, it’s possible Sims and Davis are playing for one spot. If the decision is based on offense, it will go to Sims. If the decision is based on special teams, it will go to Davis.

At kicker, the belief around the league is the Packers want Carlson to win the job. Thus, Greg Joseph will have to score a decisive knockout. So far, he has not. If Carlson (or Joseph) doesn’t finish the month with a bang, it will be interesting to see which kickers are released around the league on the 27th.

Dillard, who was worked over again and again by Rashan Gary to start training camp, has played better the last couple weeks. His experience could make him the swing tackle to start the season.

50 Percent Roster Locks: 5

Quarterbacks: None.

Running backs: Emanuel Wilson.

Receivers: Malik Heath.

Tight ends: None.

Offensive line: None.

Defensive ends: Brenton Cox.

Defensive tackles: None.

Linebackers: Kristian Welch.

Cornerbacks: Robert Rochell.

Safeties: None.

Specialists: None.

All five of the players listed here have performed well enough to earn a roster spot – and almost certainly will be on some 53-man roster this year. However, the numbers could work against them.

If Lloyd is healthy, do the Packers really need Wilson? Heath’s physicality was an asset last year but DuBose can block, as well, and is the more athletic receiver. Can the Packers get by with Wooden serving as a combo tackle/end to save a roster spot? Welch is a proven standout on special teams but plays a position bolstered by two Day 2 draft picks. Rochell can provide quality depth and play on special teams.

30.0 Percent to 49.9 Percent Locks: 10

Quarterbacks: None.

Running backs: None.

Receivers: Samori Toure.

Tight ends: Joel Wilson.

Offensive line: G Royce Newman, T Travis Glover, T Kadeem Telfort, T Caleb Jones.

Defensive ends: None.

Defensive tackles: Jonathan Ford.

Linebackers: Ralen Goforth.

Cornerbacks: None.

Safeties: Zayne Anderson.

Specialists: K Greg Joseph.

In the cases of Toure, Newman, Jones and Ford, it might be a matter of out with the old, in with the new. General manager Brian Gutekunst isn’t going to wait forever and might rather go with a young player with upside rather than an established player with a minimal ceiling.

For the totality of camp, Joseph has outkicked Carlson. He’s also got the stronger leg. But it didn’t help that he went 3-of-7 at Wednesday’s practice in Green Bay.

A sixth-round pick, Glover took some second-team reps at practice this week. Anderson was an asset on special teams last year, but the Packers added three safeties in the draft.

Wilson could be a wild card at tight end – he’s definitely closer to 30.0 percent than 49.9 percent – but he’s caught a lot of passes.

At this point, Goforth is the only hope for the Packers to extend their undrafted streak to 20 years.

0.0 Percent to 29.9 Percent Locks: 24

Quarterbacks: None.

Running backs: Jarveon Howard, Ellis Merriweather, Nate McCrary.

Receivers: Julian Hicks, Dimitri Stanley, Jalen Wayne.

Tight ends: Messiah Swinson.

Offensive line: Luke Tenuta, Lecitus Smith, Donovan Jennings.

Defensive ends: Deslin Alexandre, Brevin Allen, Keshawn Banks, Kenneth Odumegwu, Arron Mosby, Zach Morton.

Defensive tackles: James Ester, Spencer Waege.

Linebackers: Christian Young, Chris Russell.

Cornerbacks: LJ Davis, Gemon Green.

Safeties: Benny Sapp.

Specialists: K Alex Hale.

Like in the 100 percent locks group, no explanation is needed here. There are some good players on this list who will merit a spot on the practice squad.

The Packers’ undrafted class is usually the best group that limited money can buy, but they guaranteed $100,000 of Jennings’ base salary. However, he’s been unable to stay healthy to show what he can do.

Howard, who missed this week with an ankle injury, and Hicks had good preseason games. Sapp made his presence felt on special teams after being called up from the practice squad last year. Waege has shown some pass-rush ability.

The Packers will be given a practice-squad exemption for keeping Odumegwu, meaning they can carry 17 on the P-squad rather than 16.

More Green Bay Packers Training Camp News

In 10 days, the #Packers will have to cut their roster to 53 players. Here's an updated look at the big roster battles ahead of Sunday night's game at Denver and the practice and game next week against Baltimore. ⬇️https://t.co/aDsXEr5B5D

— Bill Huber (@BillHuberNFL) August 17, 2024

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