Playoff Impact of Packers’ Game at Vikings

From a seeding perspective, there is a lot on the line for the Green Bay Packers with their final games against the Minnesota Vikings and Chicago Bears.
Green Bay Packers wide receiver Bo Melton (80) catches a pass for a touchdown against the Minnesota Vikings last year.
Green Bay Packers wide receiver Bo Melton (80) catches a pass for a touchdown against the Minnesota Vikings last year. / Brad Rempel-Imagn Images
In this story:

GREEN BAY, Wis. – The Green Bay Packers have clinched their spot in the NFL playoffs, but they have no chance to win the division or get a first-round home playoff game.

Nonetheless, Sunday’s game against the Minnesota Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium is of critical importance for any potential run to the Super Bowl.

If the season were to end today, the Packers would be the No. 6 seed. That would mean their wild-card round matchup would be at the third-seeded Los Angeles Rams, who are 10-6 after edging Arizona 13-9 for their fifth consecutive win. A loss to the Vikings, however, could mean a much more difficult playoff path.

Here’s what’s at stake with this week’s game at Minnesota and next week’s home game against the Chicago Bears.

Packers Win Both Games

If Green Bay beats Minnesota and Chicago and Minnesota loses to Green Bay and at Detroit, the Packers and Vikings would finish tied for second in the NFC North at 13-4. The Packers would win the tiebreaker and move into the fifth seed based on common games; Green Bay beat the Rams while the Vikings did not.

According to Playoff Status, there is a 66 percent chance that Green Bay will earn the No. 5 seed if they win their final two games.

Packers Lose to Vikings

The Packers hold a one-game lead over the Washington Commanders in the race for the No. 6 seed.

If the Packers lose one of their final two games and the Commanders sweep their final two games (home against the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday night and at the Dallas Cowboys), Green Bay and Washington would finish with 12-5 records.

Washington would win the tiebreaker based on better conference record, meaning the Commanders would move up to the sixth seed and Green Bay would fall to the seventh seed.

According to Playoff Status, there is a 64 percent chance the Packers would finish as the sixth seed with a split and an 81 percent chance they’d fall to the seventh seed if they lose both games.

Why It Matters

The seventh seed will open the playoffs at the No. 2 seed. If the No. 7 wins, it would play at the No. 1 seed in the divisional round.

Talk about a gauntlet.

Based on the current standings, the No. 7 seed would open at the Philadelphia Eagles, whose 10-game winning streak was snapped last week after Jalen Hurts suffered a concussion at Washington. An upset of the Eagles would mean a trip to Detroit to face the well-rested Lions, who have been the best team in the NFL all season.

The No. 5 and No. 6 seeds at least would have a more favorable wild-card matchup against the winners of the weaker NFC South and NFC West before potentially having to face the NFC powers.

The lowest remaining seed from wild-card weekend will play at the No. 1 seed in the divisional round.

“We’re going to fight to definitely win out the rest of these games,” quarterback Jordan Love said. “Our situation, we know we’re going to be on the road and go play somebody. Obviously, we’re going try to win out these last games. We’ve got two NFC North teams, so it’s going to be plenty of motivation there to try and finish it out the right way.”

In the four years of the 14-team playoff format, the No. 7 has never swept the No. 2 and No. 1. In fact, the No. 7 seed all-time is 1-7 against the No. 2; that win was by the Packers last year at Dallas.

The Vikings are fighting for the No. 1 seed and would get it if they beat the Packers and Lions.

“It's fun to be able to play big -time football, to be able to play meaningful games towards the end of the season,” Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold said. “But what we're looking at it as just going 1-0. That's our whole mindset. This entire season it's been our whole mindset, and we're just going to continue to have that throughout this whole week.”

NFC Playoff Standings

With remaining schedules.

Top Seven Qualify

1.. Detroit Lions: 13-2 (first place, NFC North)

at San Francisco 49ers, home vs. Minnesota Vikings

2. Philadelphia Eagles: 12-3 (first place, NFC East)

home vs. Dallas Cowboys, home vs. New York Giants

3. Los Angeles Rams: 10-6 (first place, NFC West)

home vs. Seattle Seahawks

4. Atlanta Falcons: 8-7 (second place, NFC South)

at Washington Commanders, home vs. Carolina Panthers

5. Minnesota Vikings: 13-2 (second place, NFC North)

home vs. Green Bay Packers, at Detroit Lions

6. Green Bay Packers: 11-4 (third place, NFC North)

at Minnesota Vikings, home vs. Chicago Bears

7. Washington Commanders: 10-5 (second place, NFC East)                                        

home vs. Atlanta Falcons, at Dallas Cowboys

In Contention

8. Seattle Seahawks: 8-7 (second place, NFC West)

at Chicago Bears, at Los Angeles Rams

9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 8-7 (first place, NFC South)

home vs. Carolina Panthers, home vs. New Orleans Saints

Eliminated

10. Dallas Cowboys: 7-8 (third place, NFC East)

11. Arizona Cardinals: 7-9 (third place, NFC West)

12. San Francisco 49ers: 6-9 (last place, NFC West)

13. New Orleans Saints: 5-10 (third place, NFC South)

14. Carolina Panthers: 4-11 (last place, NFC South)

15. Chicago Bears: 4-12 (last place, NFC North)

16. New York Giants: 2-13 (last place, NFC East)

Latest Green Bay Packers News 

Three reasons why Packers will lose to Vikings | Three reasons why Packers will beat Vikings | Packers elevate Minneapolis native | Josh Jacobs rewards linemen | Packers-Vikings final injury report | Time for excuses is over | A must-win game? | NFC North power rankings | Historic Packers-Vikings point spread | Packers-Vikings: Matchups


Published |Modified
Bill Huber
BILL HUBER

Bill Huber, who has covered the Green Bay Packers since 2008, is the publisher of Packers On SI, a Sports Illustrated channel. E-mail: packwriter2002@yahoo.com History: Huber took over Packer Central in August 2019. Twitter: https://twitter.com/BillHuberNFL Background: Huber graduated from the University of Wisconsin-Whitewater, where he played on the football team, in 1995. He worked in newspapers in Reedsburg, Wisconsin Dells and Shawano before working at The Green Bay News-Chronicle and Green Bay Press-Gazette from 1998 through 2008. With The News-Chronicle, he won several awards for his commentaries and page design. In 2008, he took over as editor of Packer Report Magazine, which was founded by Hall of Fame linebacker Ray Nitschke, and PackerReport.com. In 2019, he took over the new Sports Illustrated site Packer Central, which he has grown into one of the largest sites in the Sports Illustrated Media Group.