One Throw Jump-Started Rodgers’ Long-Shot Run to Potential Third MVP

There have been only five players to win at least three NFL MVPs. Aaron Rodgers could join the list. Here's why.

GREEN BAY, Wis. – With arguably the best season of his career – a season jump-started by one play early in training camp – Aaron Rodgers has put the Green Bay Packers in the championship mix and himself in the MVP hunt.

“There’s not many guys that have won three. So, that would definitely mean a lot,” he said after Wednesday’s practice.

Indeed, it’s a short list. Peyton Manning won five MVPs – four with Indianapolis and a fifth with Denver in 2013. Former Packers quarterback Brett Favre won an unprecedented three in a row in 1995, 1996 and 1997. Jim Brown, Johnny Unitas and Tom Brady are the other three-time MVPs.

Rodgers and Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes have separated themselves from the pack this season.

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Rodgers is No. 1 in the NFL passer rating, touchdown passes, touchdown-to-interception ratio and touchdown percentage. Rodgers has a 105-plus passer rating in 12 of 13 games, including eight in a row leading into Saturday night’s game against the Carolina Panthers. With a blast-from-the-past season, the Packers are 10-3 and leading the charge for the No. 1 seed.

Mahomes is No. 1 in passing yards, No. 2 in passer rating and touchdown-to-interception ratio, and No. 3 in touchdowns. The Chiefs, the defending Super Bowl champions, are 12-1.

That Mahomes is in the MVP race is no surprise. He was the MVP in 2018 and the Super Bowl MVP in 2019. At BetMGM, he was the preseason favorite at +400. Mahomes remains the favorite, his odds shortened all the way to -250. No matter the price, the bets have been on Mahomes with 27 percent of the money.

That Rodgers is front and center in the discussion is a major surprise. Coming off subpar seasons in 2018 and 2019, he started the year well back in the pack at +2500. Rodgers’ odds have shortened considerably, too, to +200. He’s collected just 6 percent of the money.

“You know, it’s nice to be back in the conversation,” Rodgers said. “Like I said the other day, it’s been a good year for State Farm reps. Pat’s such a phenomenal player. He’s had a great year, as well. It’d be something that’s usually on the preseason goal list and it’s nice to be in the conversation.”

Among the nine multiple-time MVPs, the longest gap between awards belongs to Brady and Brown at seven years. Brady won his second in 2010 and his third in 2017. Brown won his second in 1958 and his third in 1965. Rodgers, who won his second in 2014, would have a six-year gap.

Rodgers scoffed at the notion that the team’s first-round selection of Jordan Love gave him a motivational kick in the rear. Rather, as he’s done before, he pointed to Year 2 in coach Matt LaFleur’s system and something he saw watching some old film.

Everything came together early in training camp with one play that Rodgers singled out on Wednesday.

“I remember almost the throw that for me just kind of turned everything for me in training camp,” Rodgers said. “It was a read stop, about a 20-yard route, and I came up off a fake on one hitch and threw a laser to Marquez, I believe it was, on my left side. That to me gave me a lot of confidence that the things I was thinking about and working on and visualizing could come to fruition.

“Now, you never know once the live bullets start going how you’re going to play, but I think as far as training camp goes, that was an important day for me. And a lot of things changed for me as far as my balance, my rhythm, my timing going forward. It may be surprising to hear that one throw could do that but, a lot of times, it’s just something little, whether it’s in your personal life or professional life that can kind of take you on a new course trajectory. That throw that day was that for me this year, and gave me a lot of confidence moving forward that the work I was putting in and the things I was thinking about in training camp could really translate to the regular season.”

MVP Race at BetMGM

Highest Ticket Percentage

1. Derrick Henry 34%

2. Patrick Mahomes 20%

3. Aaron Rodgers 7%

4. Ben Roethlisberger 6%

5. Russell Wilson 5%

Highest Handle Percentage

1. Patrick Mahomes 27%

2. Derrick Henry 20%

3. Russell Wilson 15%

4. Aaron Rodgers 6%

5. Ben Roethlisberger 4%

Line Movement

Patrick Mahomes – Preseason: +400; Highest odds during season: +750; Current: -250.

Derrick Henry – Preseason: +5000; Highest odds during season: +10000; Current: +5000.

Aaron Rodgers – Preseason: +2500; Highest odds during season: consistently declined; Current: +200.