Packers Schedule: Either Brutal Or Not So Bad

There is the traditional way of looking at strength of schedule. And then there's the Vegas-based way. Those methods get contrasting projections for the Packers.

GREEN BAY, Wis. – With the Green Bay Packers facing a first-place schedule, the powerful NFC West and AFC North divisions, and getting the mighty Kansas City Chiefs for their 17th game, repeating as the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoffs will be a major challenge for Aaron Rodgers and Co.

Based on opponent wins and losses from 2020, the Packers will face the fourth-toughest schedule in the league this season. Their 17 opponents went a combined 147-124-1 last season. With the addition of the Chiefs in an expanded schedule, Green Bay will play a league-high 10 games against teams that reached the postseason last year. And that doesn’t include a matchup against the San Francisco 49ers, who routed the Packers in the NFC Championship Game in 2019 but crashed last season with Jimmy Garoppolo out and replaced by Nick Mullens and C.J. Beathard.

Only Pittsburgh (166 wins based on 2020 records), Baltimore (163) and Chicago (159) will face a tougher schedule than Green Bay (157).

At least by that traditional way of looking at strength of schedule. There’s another way that reflects how teams have evolved over the last several months.

Using average 2021 NFL win totals from sportsbooks instead of 2020 wins and losses, Sports Betting Dime’s Matt McEwan produced a strength of schedule that better reflects current realities. His reasoning:

For starters, free agency, the NFL Draft, and other player/coach movement are all capable of dramatically changing a team in just one offseason – see the 2017 Los Angeles Rams under Sean McVay or the 2020 Tampa Bay Buccaneers with Tom Brady.

Second, injuries/suspensions to star players, namely quarterbacks, can result in a good team suffering through a bad season – see the 2017 Green Bay Packers without Aaron Rodgers. If you’re going to tell me the Packers are a 7-9 team with Rodgers under center, I’m here to call you crazy.

Using McEwan’s method, the Packers surprisingly face only the 15th-toughest schedule in 2021. Their 17 games come against teams projected to go about 146-143 this season.

The Las Vegas Raiders are projected to face the toughest schedule and the San Francisco 49ers the easiest. The Detroit Lions not only have the toughest projected in the NFC North but the NFC overall.