Rodgers Blows Past Mahomes in MVP Race

The time to bet on Aaron Rodgers was long, long ago.

Bill Huber | Dec 28, 2020

GREEN BAY, Wis. – Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers has outplayed Patrick Mahomes since the calendar flipped to December. Finally, that reality has shown up in the MVP odds.

With Mahomes struggling to beat woeful Atlanta on Sunday and Rodgers throwing four touchdown passes on Sunday night against powerful Tennessee, Rodgers has surged to the front of the MVP race at sportsbooks.

At this time last week, despite Rodgers having the better stats, Mahomes was -344 to win MVP while Rodgers was +331, according to the MVP tracker at SportsBettingDime.com. After Sunday’s games, Rodgers jumped to the front at PointsBet at -180 with Mahomes on his heels at +140. Since the switch, money has poured in on Rodgers. That’s pushed the odds to -295 for Rodgers and +250 for Mahomes as of Monday afternoon.

“I think the performance in the snow on the national stage last night drove people to look into the numbers a bit more,” said Andrew Mannino, the senior sports content analyst at PointsBet. “When you see what Rodgers has done this year, he’s having a career year in a Hall of Fame career. It’s really incredible what he’s doing right now. What we’ve seen this morning has really proven that.”

The time to bet on Rodgers was long, long ago. Coming off a broken collarbone in 2017 and so-so seasons in 2018 and 2019, Rodgers was +2500 before the season at BetMGM – well behind Mahomes, who was the favorite at +400.

"Few thought Aaron Rodgers had another MVP season in him, but Rodgers is now a -225 favorite to win the award,” said Matt Cosgriff, the director of trading at BetMGM.

Rodgers leads the NFL in touchdown passes, touchdown percentage, interception percentage and passer rating. His 44 touchdown passes are tied for eighth-most in NFL history and one off his career high of 45 set during his MVP season of 2011. If Rodgers can throw four touchdown passes at Chicago next week, he’d tie Dan Marino for fifth-most of all-time.

Rodgers’ 119.4 passer rating is third-best in NFL history behind his 122.5 in 2011 and Peyton Manning’s 121.1 in 2004.

In the Super Bowl market, the teams guided by Mahomes and Rodgers have the shortest championship odds. At William Hill, the Chiefs remain the favorites at +160, followed by the Packers at +550, Saints at +700, Seahawks and Bills at +1000 and Buccaneers and Ravens at +1200. At PointsBet, the Chiefs are +200, followed by the Packers at +550, Saints at +800, Bills at +850, Ravens at +1000 and Seahawks and Buccaneers at +1200.

Published Dec 28, 2020

BILL HUBER

Bill Huber, who has covered the Green Bay Packers since 2008, is the publisher of Packers On SI, a Sports Illustrated channel. E-mail: packwriter2002@yahoo.com History: Huber took over Packer Central in August 2019. Twitter: https://twitter.com/BillHuberNFL Background: Huber graduated from the University of Wisconsin-Whitewater, where he played on the football team, in 1995. He worked in newspapers in Reedsburg, Wisconsin Dells and Shawano before working at The Green Bay News-Chronicle and Green Bay Press-Gazette from 1998 through 2008. With The News-Chronicle, he won several awards for his commentaries and page design. In 2008, he took over as editor of Packer Report Magazine, which was founded by Hall of Fame linebacker Ray Nitschke, and PackerReport.com. In 2019, he took over the new Sports Illustrated site Packer Central, which he has grown into one of the largest sites in the Sports Illustrated Media Group.