Story Behind Shifting Packers-Lions Point Spread

On Sunday evening, the line for this week's game between the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions shifted by almost two full touchdowns.

GREEN BAY, Wis. – It’s been a wild few days at sportsbooks in setting a line for Sunday’s game between the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions.

The Packers are 2 1/2-point favorites at FanDuel, the result of Sunday’s intrigue and some early-week guesswork.

The Packers (13-3) were 11-point favorites over the Lions (2-13-1) on Wednesday and stayed there deep into Sunday afternoon. When the Arizona Cardinals completed their upset of the Dallas Cowboys, which put the Packers in position to wrap up the No. 1 seed in the NFC on Sunday night, the line moved big time.

Sportsbooks were so convinced that the Packers would knock off the Minnesota Vikings, who were being led by backup quarterback Sean Mannion, the line flipped and the Lions became a slight favorite at most sportsbooks under the belief that Packers coach Matt LaFleur would rest his key players for a meaningless Week 18 game.

When LaFleur on Sunday night said he was inclined to play Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams and other key starters, the line swung back in Green Bay’s direction. And it stayed there when LaFleur on Monday said that he indeed would use his top players.

“We are basically reacting to the updates we hear from LaFleur,” FanDuel’s John Sheeran said. “We didn’t expect the starters to play based on the clinching of the 1 seed but, obviously, the comments from the coach seemed to intimate that we should expect to see them for at least some of the game). As a result, we moved the line from +1 to -2.5.”

Similarly, at SI Sportsbook, the Packers have gone from double-digit favorites to 1 1/2-point underdogs to 2-point favorites. At Westgate SuperBook, the line went from Packers by 11 to Lions by 2 1/2 to Packers by 2.

It remains a fluid situation. Oddsmakers such as Sheeran will spend the week parsing LaFleur’s words in hopes of finding some insight into just how long Rodgers and Co. will play. On Monday, LaFleur suggested his top players might not play the entire game. But will it be just a few series? The first half? Some undefined point when LaFleur feels good about the standard of play? Clearly, the longer the front-line players are on the field, the better the chances that Green Bay can win going away.

Moreover, there’s intrigue in Detroit, too. Quarterback Jared Goff missed last week’s loss at Seattle with a knee injury. Will he be back, or will former Packers backup Tim Boyle make his fourth start? In 13 starts, Goff has thrown 17 touchdowns vs. eight interceptions. In Boyle’s three starts, he’s thrown three touchdowns vs. six interceptions. The identity of the Lions’ starter will impact the line, too, though not quite like the seven-point shift from Kirk Cousins to Mannion last week.

“I don’t want to speak in absolutes by any stretch,” LaFleur said when asked if key starters might play only part of the game. “But, yeah, I think going into the game you have to approach it like that, whether a guy plays a half or three quarters or whatever it may be. You’ve got to go into it with the mind-set that I’m going to play the whole game.”