Packers at Dolphins: Three Reasons to Worry

The Green Bay Packers are facing a must-win game on Christmas at Miami. Here are three reasons why the Packers will lose.

GREEN BAY, Wis. – The Green Bay Packers, coming off back-to-back victories over the worst teams in the NFC, will have to step up their game to beat the Miami Dolphins on Sunday.

“We’ve played a couple of teams we should have beat,” quarterback Aaron Rodgers said after knocking off the Rams on Monday night. “I think we can beat anybody. We can also lose to anybody. But when you win a couple in a row, it starts to give you some confidence. Now we’re playing against some better football teams down the stretch that we can go to Miami and win.”

With three consecutive losses, the Dolphins are 8-6. If Green Bay has momentum, Miami has none. Still, Miami is an incredibly formidable opponent. Here are three reasons why Green Bay’s playoff flame – burning bright after Detroit and Seattle were crushed on Saturday – will be all but extinguished on Sunday.

1. No Place Like Home

The Dolphins are 8-6. They are ninth in points scored, 26th in points allowed and 13th in scoring differential. Focusing on the defense, they are 23rd in yards allowed and 29th in opponent passer rating.

That’s mediocre, at best, and terrible, at worst.

Looking deeper shows the true challenge that’s ahead of the Packers. Miami is 5-1 at home. Focusing on what’s happened at Hard Rock Stadium, the Dolphins are only 12th in points scored but second in points allowed and sixth in scoring differential. That bad defense actually is really good, ranking seventh in yards allowed and 12th in opponent passer rating.

“I haven’t really studied home or away,” offensive coordinator Adam Stenavich said. “It could just be opponents they play, things like that. But typically, when you’re on the road as an offense communication, all those things work towards the defense’s advantage when the offense isn’t able to communicate as well as they would at home. I have noticed that they’re a very good defense, so we’re just preparing for that.”

Critically, the Dolphins are fourth in takeaways at home and 31st on the road.

“You try to come up with the best plan as possible,” coach Matt LaFleur said. “They’ve got a lot of great players. They’ve got some guys up front that can certainly wreck a game, they’ve got guys in the back end who can cover and they do a good job of complementing one another on the defensive side of the ball. We’re going to have a great game plan. It’s going to come down, like it always does, to how well you execute.”

2. King of the Hill

With Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, the Dolphins have a track team on the perimeter. Every passing play has the potential to go the distance. Miami is second in the NFL with 93 completions of 16-plus yards, first with 12 receptions of 40-plus yards and first with 7.85 yards per passing attempt. Miami has seven touchdown passes of 40-plus yards, three more than any other team.

Hill is the most dangerous man in the NFL. Since entering the NFL in 2016, he has 25 touchdown receptions of 40-plus yards. That’s more than the next two players, Tyler Lockett (13) and DeSean Jackson (among others with 11), combined. If that’s not enough, he has more 25-yard touchdown receptions than 24 teams, including Green Bay (21). This year, Hill and Davante Adams are tied for No. 1 with four.

“He’s a great player,” nickel defender Keisean Nixon said. “I’ve been in the division with him, so it’s not my first time seeing him.”

This season, Hill is first with six receptions of 40-plus yards, tied with Minnesota’s Justin Jefferson for No. 1. Waddle is tied for third with five. He leads the NFL with 18.0 yards per reception.

“This team truly lives on the explosion play, and we’ve got to keep the ball inside and in front of us,” defensive coordinator Joe Barry said. “We’ve got to tackle better than we’ve tackled all year long. I think all those things go into eliminating the explosion play.”

Taking away the big play hasn’t been a strength. Green Bay has allowed 10 receptions of 40-plus yards – second-most in the NFL – but no touchdowns.

“They’re good players just like we’ve got good players,” Nixon said. “They’ve got All-Pro players, we’ve got All-Pro players. We’ve got great players, too, just like them. It’s going to be a clash of titans.”

Of note, Hill is fifth in the NFL with 43 receptions from the slot, so he’ll see plenty of Nixon.

3. The Standings

Good teams beat good teams. Seems kind of simple. The Packers are 1-5 against teams with winning records, including 0-4 on the road against the Vikings, Commanders, Bills and Eagles.

Can the Packers, playing their 15th game of the season, finally put together a complete game?

The Dolphins haven’t been world-beaters against good teams, either. They beat Baltimore in Week 2 and Buffalo in Week 3 but have lost their last five against teams with winning records. That includes their current three-game skid against the 49ers, Chargers and Bills.

But the Dolphins are at home, where their dominance has been noted. And they’ve got two extra days of rest, an advantage that can’t be overstated.

“There’s one team on our schedule. Nothing matters beyond that,” Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel said. “I don’t care about scenarios. I don’t care. The point is, is that you have to win a game to get in the playoffs. I know that much. We have to win. But you don’t want to get in the playoffs trying to pull yourself out of a slump.

"This game is the most important because it’s next but it’s also we need to strain to win a football game, and we need to be playing our best football in January, which has been the objective the whole time. We’re solely focused on the Green Bay Packers, their tremendous franchise and their Hall of Fame quarterback, etc.”

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We’ll see about Christmas but Christmas Eve was perfect for the #Packers.https://t.co/CJYDOr6e3B

— Bill Huber (@BillHuberNFL) December 25, 2022

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