Packers at Eagles: Three Reasons for Hope

It’s easy to see why the Green Bay Packers are touchdown underdogs for Sunday night’s game at the Philadelphia Eagles. Here’s why the Packers can earn an upset victory.

GREEN BAY, Wis. – In 2016, the Green Bay Packers had won only four games with six games remaining when they played at the Philadelphia Eagles under the primetime lights. The Packers earned an upset victory, kicking off the run-the-table sweep to get into the playoffs.

In 2022, the Packers are in a similar position with four wins, six games to go and a primetime game against the Eagles. Here are three reasons to believe the Packers, at least for one night, can earn some repeat history.

1. Jones vs. Weak Run Defense

Green Bay and Philadelphia field two of the worst run defenses in the NFL. Last week, both teams rose up to stop top running backs. The Packers were excellent against the Titans’ Derrick Henry while the Eagles stepped up in the second half to stop the Colts’ Jonathan Taylor.

However, in the previous five games, the Eagles allowed games of 124, 134, 144, 168 and 152 rushing yards. Overall, they are 24th with 4.65 yards allowed per carry. In five of their 10 games, they allowed at least 5.15 yards per carry. Considering the big names on their defensive front, that’s incredibly porous.

Green Bay’s Aaron Jones is having a great year. He’s seventh with 778 rushing yards and ninth with a 5.44-yard average. He’s gone over 100 yards four times, with the Packers winning three.

“There’s no more room for error, but we’ve done it to ourselves,” Jones said. “We know that. … You can’t look at the past. You’ve got to look to the future. If you look at the past, you’re just going to sit there and dwell on it. You’ve got to move on, move forward. But also, with the past, you want to take those moments that are correctable, how we can get better, and apply that to every game moving forward.”

Here’s the noteworthy number. Among all backs with at least 70 carries, Jones has broken a tackle on 25.2 percent of his attempts, according to Sports Info Solutions. That’s the third-highest rate in the NFL. The Eagles have missed the third-most tackles, according to SportRadar. With a few extra days of rest, Jones could be in line for a big game.

2. Mistake-Free Rodgers

With a bunch of veteran pass rushers and a tandem of excellent cornerbacks, Philadelphia’s pass defense has been fabulous. It’s tied for first with 13 interceptions. Safety Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, who was acquired from the Saints in a trade at the end of camp, leads the NFL with six interceptions. Cornerbacks Darius Slay and James Bradberry have three apiece.

Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers has made more mistakes than usual but he’s one of the best ever at avoiding interceptions. If he can play keepaway from the Eagles’ big-play defensive backs – a big night by the aforementioned Aaron Jones would help – it would make Philadelphia’s offense take the long road to the end zone.

Back to Slay. He spent his first seven seasons with the Detroit Lions and has played 13 games against Rodgers. In a superb career, Slay has intercepted Tom Brady and Drew Brees but not Rodgers. Doing that would complete his three-man Mount Rushmore.

“He’s the only one I’m missing,” Slay said on Friday. “I hope he blesses me with one, but it’s going to be too hard. I know how he is, but if I do, he’s going on my Mount Rushmore. …

“It’s hard,” he added. “That’s what I’m trying to tell you, I know how hard it is. It’s so damn hard. I know he’s just not going to throw it to me. He gave me a game jersey, so I might just put the game jersey in place of that (pick-ball on his Mount Rushmore) in case I don’t get it. It’s hard to get them. He won’t just throw it to me. I wish he would. Some people just throw it to me. He doesn’t want to throw it to me. We’ll see, though.”

3. Handling Hurts

Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts has accounted for 23 touchdowns this season. He’s not quite the dual threat that is Bills quarterback Josh Allen but he’s not far off the pace.

Among quarterbacks, Hurts is fifth with 438 rushing yards and first with eight rushing touchdowns. At 6-foot-1 and 223 pounds, he is a powerful man. According to Pro Football Focus, he’s third among quarterbacks with 24 missed tackles.

Green Bay has done well against running quarterbacks. According to Pro Football Reference, the Packers have allowed 112 rushing yards to quarterbacks. That’s third-best in the NFL. They’ve yielded only 2.8 yards per carry. Allen got loose a couple times in the game at Buffalo a few weeks ago but they’ve done well against the likes of Chicago’s Justin Fields and Washington’s Taylor Heinicke.

“I think Jalen does an unbelievable job,” Packers coach Matt LaFleur said. “I think it does present some challenges to defenders in terms of there’s times where it looks like he’s going to run out of bounds and then he’ll shoot up the sideline.

“Quarterbacks get a lot of leeway in terms of they’re going to be more aggressive to call penalties if you hit a quarterback versus running backs, receivers, tight ends, whoever it may be. I think (where) Jalen does a really good job is he’ll lower his shoulder or he’ll make you miss. He’s very similar, I would say, in a lot of respects to how Josh Allen runs.”

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When the #Packers need to make a play, who will get open? That's been the question all year, and it will be the question on Sunday night against two of the NFL's four corners who are allowing 50 percent completion rates or better.
Your 3 reasons to worry.https://t.co/Lzm8dpacpf

— Bill Huber (@BillHuberNFL) November 26, 2022

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