Packers vs. Cowboys: Three Reasons for Worry

The Green Bay Packers (3-6) haven’t lost six in a row since dropping seven straight three decades ago. Here’s why their skid will continue on Sunday against the Dallas Cowboys (6-2).

GREEN BAY, Wis. – The last time the Green Bay Packers lost six in a row, Lindy Infante was the coach, Don Majkowski and Anthony Dilweg were the quarterbacks, and Aaron Rodgers and Matt LaFleur were in grade school.

The Packers – with Rodgers at quarterback and former coach Mike McCarthy on the other sideline – will try to avoid a sixth consecutive loss when the host the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday.

The Cowboys are one of the top teams in the NFL. They’re 6-2 and coming off their bye. They are explosive on offense, having scored 49 points against Chicago in the last game before their bye. They are a powerhouse on defense, having allowed less than 20 points in six of eight games. They are third in turnovers and a threat on special teams.

There are plenty of reasons to worry. Here are three.

1. Dallas’ Rushing Attack

With Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard, the Cowboys have gotten the thunder-and-lightning combo that the Packers expected to get with AJ Dillon and Aaron Jones.

Elliott is no longer an elite back but he remains physical and effective. He’s rushed for 443 yards and averaged 4.1 yards per pop. If he were a boxer, he’d be landing all the body blows. Pollard is the real problem. If he were the boxer, he’d be the one landing one of those one-punch knockouts. He’s rushed for 506 yards on a 6.2-yard clip. Among all running backs with at least 80 carries, he is No. 1 in average. Pollard has nine runs of 15-plus yards. That’s as many as Jones and Dillon combined despite getting 124 fewer carries.

Green Bay’s run defense ranks 26th with 136.6 yards allowed per game and 24th with 4.76 yards allowed per carry. It allowed 117 rushing yards to Detroit last week. That’s not good. But it was Green Bay’s second-best day of the season.

With De’Vondre Campbell and Rashan Gary out with knee injuries, handling Elliott and Pollard and dealing with the Cowboys’ line will be a major challenge. It’s going to come down to attitude. With the Packers’ season going nowhere fast, will the defensive front have the willpower to hang in there for 60 minutes against a healthy, rested, physical offense?

2. Studs on Defense

When Green Bay’s defense was rolling during the seasons surrounding the Super Bowl win in 2010, Charles Woodson was the driving force. Then-defensive coordinator Dom Capers could line up Woodson at corner or in the slot. He could have him lock down the No. 1 receiver or blitz off the edge. He created turnovers, sacked quarterbacks and scored touchdowns.

Cowboys linebacker Micah Parsons is the front-seven version of Woodson.

“I don’t know if there’s anybody,” doing what Parsons is doing, Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers said. “I think Dan (Quinn, Dallas’ defensive coordinator) does a great job of using him, getting a lot of different personnel packages. He’s on the line of scrimmage in some of them. He’s off the ball. Drops in coverage. He’s got a lot of things that you just can’t coach.”

As a rookie last year, Parsons had 13 sacks and 84 tackles. Of the 14 players with more than 10 sacks, Parsons was No. 1 with 84 tackles. Through eight games this season, Parsons has eight sacks. Among edge defenders, he is fourth in PFF’s pass-rush win rate and sixth in PFF’s pass-rush productivity, which measures sacks, hits and hurries per pass-rushing opportunity. He rushes almost equally between left tackle and right tackle, so he’ll test the health of left tackle David Bakhtiari and the experience of right tackle Yosh Nijman.

With Parsons, up-and-coming Dorance Armstrong and veterans Demarcus Lawrence and Dante Fowler, the Cowboys lead the NFL in sack percentage and pressure percentage. With all that pressure, Dallas’ secondary can hunt. Cornerback Trevon Diggs is a game-changer. After leading the NFL with 11 interceptions last season, Diggs has three picks and is second with 12 passes defensed this season.

The Cowboys are yielding 8.4 yards per completion, third-best in the NFL. On the other side of the ball, the Packers are 23rd with 9.6 yards per completion.

3. Special on Special Teams

By Football Outsiders’ DVOA, the Cowboys rank second in special teams while the Packers are 30th.

The big disparity comes with the returners. Dallas rookie KaVontae Turpin is quite a story. He finished his college career at TCU in 2018 as the school’s career leader with six return touchdowns. He’s played in the Indoor Football League and the European League of Football. He got back on NFL radars by winning UFSL MVP honors.

Turpin is one of those dynamite-in-small-packages type of players. He’s hardly imposing at 5-foot-9 and 153 pounds. But he is incredibly explosive with a 24.2-yard average on kickoff returns (long of 63) and a 14.7-yard average on punt returns (long of 52). He had a touchdown in each phase in the preseason.

“He’s got tremendous speed, and he can make you miss and he can go the distance,” special teams coordinator Rich Bisaccia said. “He scored touchdowns in the other league [the USFL]. He hit a big touchdown in the preseason for Dallas and it’s kind of the reason they kept him. He has tremendous speed, makes good decisions, has great hand-eye coordination, catches the ball real easy. So, he’s a threat.”

He'll test Green Bay’s special teams. After a hot start, punter Pat O’Donnell’s hit a rough patch. And there’s going to be change on kickoffs, with Ramiz Ahmed making his NFL debut.

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— Bill Huber (@BillHuberNFL) November 12, 2022

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