Three Reasons Why Packers Will Lose to Giants on Monday Night

The Green Bay Packers have won three in a row and are 6.5-point favorites for Monday night’s game at the Giants. Here are three reasons to be on upset alert.

GREEN BAY, Wis. – To former Green Bay Packers coach Mike McCarthy, a key for any team was how it would handle success.

Coach Matt LaFleur’s Packers have tasted some success with three consecutive wins over the Chargers, Lions and Chiefs. Now that they’re squarely in the playoff race, how will they handle being 6.5-point favorites against the New York Giants on Monday night?

“We give everybody respect,” quarterback Joran Love said. “We don’t doubt anybody or take a game off or anything like that.”

Here are this week’s three reasons to worry.

1. Of Course, It’s Saquon Barkley

This is the big strength-vs.-weakness mismatch that could work against the Packers.

Giants running back Saquon Barkley is one of the best in the business. Coming off a season in which he rushed for a career-high 1,312 yards, Barkley has rushed for 697 yards in nine games this year. His 77.4 yards per game are better than his career average and has him on a pace to top 1,000 yards for the fourth time in six seasons.

“I can’t even sit here and lie to you and say that wouldn’t be a cool thing,” Barkley said. “That’d definitely be a cool thing to pretty much have played five years – technically, I guess, six – but five years and average 1,000 yards a year is not a bad start to the first half or whatever of your career.”

While the numbers this year aren’t dominant, context is important. Of 40 running backs with at least 100 carries, Barkley is 11th with 2.9 yards after contact per carry, according to Sports Info Solutions. He’s seventh in the league with 11 carries of 15-plus yards. He’s topped 5.0 yards per carry in three of his last four games.

“From my perspective, you see him do pretty much everything that he’s always done,” linebackers coach Kirk Olivadotti said.

“Saquon can do anything he wants on the football field,” he added. “He’s a phenomenal football player and a very good athlete, and he makes plays and they put him in position to make plays. He’s a big challenge because he can do everything. Everything he’s asked to do he can do and he can do it at a very high level. It’s one of the bigger challenges you’re going to face.”

Barkley will run into the teeth of a Packers defense that, well, has lacked teeth against the run for, seemingly, forever. Since Matt LaFleur took over as coach in 2019, the Packers are 31st with 4.7 yards allowed per carry.

This season, Green Bay is 26th with 4.47 yards allowed per carry. No team has allowed more 200-yard rushing games (three) and 140-yard rushing games (seven) than the Packers. That includes their last four games – the longest streak in the league this season.

“Explosive back. We found that out last year,” defensive line coach Jerry Montgomery said. “He broke the big wildcat run and had some explosive pass receptions. He’s an in-and-out runner, so you’ve really got to be gap sound and make sure guys are doing their job and then rally to the football. You’ve got to have all 11 guys.”

2. Turnover Titans

For a team that’s 4-8, you might not expect the Giants to be plus-5 in turnovers. But they boast the eighth-best turnover margin in the league.

Now, that is at least a little misleading. In their Week 11 victory over Washington, they had six takeaways and zero giveaways. In their Week 12 victory over New England, they had three takeaways and one giveaway. So, they’re plus-8 their last two games to flip the turnover table.

Still, in their last three games, the Giants have eight interceptions and three fumble recoveries for 11 takeaways. The Packers, who have five takeaways and zero giveaways during their three-game winning streak, will have to be wary.

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“They do a really good job of punching at the football, getting the ball out,” LaFleur said. “That is something that is emphasized there. You see It from multiple players on their defense. They get to the quarterback pretty well and when they do they do a good job of getting the ball out. They’ve made a lot of plays in the back end, as well.”

Indeed they have. The Giants have more interceptions the last three games than the Packers have all season (six). Nine players have interceptions. Linebacker Bobby Okereke, who ranks among the NFL leaders with 113 tackles, has four forced fumbles. Defensive end Kayvon Thibodeaux, who has 11 sacks, has two forced fumbles.

Teams that win the turnover battle this year are 121-45.

“They’ve gotten some picks and they do a really good job of punching the ball out,” offensive coordinator Adam Stenavich said. “So, we’ve got to really stress that; we’ve been doing it all year of stressing protecting the ball and how important that is. It’s going to be important this week. It always comes down to that.”

3. Bye-Week Blues

The bye is a big deal, especially late in the season.

The Giants enter the game with the momentum of two consecutive wins and the health that comes from their Week 13 bye.

This season, teams are 19-10 in the week immediately following their bye. Since the calendar turned to November, the record is a rather resounding 12-5. That includes 5-1 in December.

The Giants not only will have fresh legs but some fresh ideas to throw at Green Bay’s improving offense and its bend-but-don’t-break defense.

“You go back and you look and you just say, ‘All right, this is the stuff they’ve done in the past,” LaFleur said. “Whatever packages they may have had, different changeups they may have had, so you watch all those and have a plan for each one and say, ‘OK, if they’re going this direction, here’s our answer.’ Just kind of one of things to just be prepared for a multitude of different things.”

“The one thing you don’t want to do is put too much on the players’ plates and get them worried about everything. Just let them go out there and play fast and then you as a coach can get them right as the game goes on.”

Lions Lose; Packers Have Legit Chance to Win NFC North