Packer Central

If Packers Upset Lions, Here’s Path to No. 1 Seed in NFL Playoffs

The Green Bay Packers have a chance to not just win the NFC North but earn the No. 1 seed. The path starts on Thursday night at the Detroit Lions.

Bill Huber

Green Bay Packers tight end Tucker Kraft celebrates a touchdown against the Detroit Lions last season.
Green Bay Packers tight end Tucker Kraft celebrates a touchdown against the Detroit Lions last season. / Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK
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GREEN BAY, Wis. – If the Green Bay Packers can defeat the Detroit Lions on Thursday night, the NFC North championship and No. 1 seed in the NFC playoffs will be within their grasp.

The Lions, with their 10 consecutive wins, have the best record in the NFC at 11-1. The Packers, who have three in a row since their bye, are two games back at 9-3. The Minnesota Vikings, who are on a five-game winning streak, are sandwiched in between at 10-2.

While Green Bay is in good shape to earn a playoff berth regardless of the outcome, a victory opens the door to some enticing possibilities.

“We ain’t ducking no smoke,” cornerback Keisean Nixon said on Tuesday. “We ain’t worried about their record or who they are. We’ve got our own destiny and our own goals as a team, and they’re in our way.”

NFC North Closing Schedules

Detroit Lions

vs. Green Bay Packers (9-3), vs. Buffalo Bills (10-2) at Chicago Bears (4-8), at San Francisco 49ers (5-7), vs. Minnesota Vikings (10-2).

Minnesota Vikings

vs. Atlanta Falcons (6-6), vs. Chicago Bears (4-8), at Seattle Seahawks (7-5), vs. Green Bay Packers (9-3), at Detroit Lions (11-1).

Green Bay Packers

at Detroit Lions (11-1), at Seattle Seahawks (7-5), vs. New Orleans Saints (4-8), at Minnesota Vikings (10-2), vs. Chicago Bears (4-8).

Clearly, this is a must-win game for the Packers. In fact, to win the division and have a chance to earn the No. 1 seed, they’ll probably have to sweep the rest of their games. That would include Week 17 at the Vikings.

For tiebreaker purposes, head-to-head is first, followed by division record. Through the first loop, Detroit is 3-0, Minnesota is 2-1 and Green Bay is 1-2. That gives the Lions a big advantage over Green Bay, necessitating the Lions having to lose three of their final five games.

The third tiebreaker is common games. If Green Bay and Minnesota wind up tied, the Packers beat the Rams and the Vikings lost to the Rams.

Path to NFC North Title

Here’s the realistic path for the Packers to win the NFC North, which would make the No. 1 seed a possibility.

Week 14: Packers beat Lions, Vikings beat Falcons. The key game: This is a must-win for the Packers. Standings: Lions 11-2, Vikings 11-2, Packers 10-3.

“We’re always chasing the best. We’re chasing greatness,” receiver Jayden Reed said. “We want to win the division so we’re going out there to play a hard-fought battle. That’s what it’s going to be, regardless, so we’re going out there to execute and do our job.”

Week 15: Packers beat Seahawks, Bills beat Lions, Vikings beat Bears. The key game: In what will be billed as a potential Super Bowl preview, the Bills need to beat the injury-plagued Lions. Standings: Vikings 12-2, Lions 11-3, Packers 11-3.

Week 16: Packers beat Saints, Seahawks beat Vikings, Lions beat Bears. The key game: Seattle beating Minnesota wouldn’t be a necessity because of the aforementioned common-games tiebreaker. It will be a short week for the Vikings, who will be coming off a Monday night game. Standings: Lions 12-3, Packers 12-3, Vikings 12-3.

Week 17: Packers beat Vikings, Lions beat 49ers. The key game: The Packers will need to sweep NFC North road games at Detroit and Minnesota. This will be a short week for Green Bay, which will be coming off a Monday night game. Standings: Lions 13-3, Packers 13-3, Vikings 12-4.

Week 18: Packers beat Bears, Vikings beat Lions. The key game: If the Lions win, they’d have the division tiebreaker over Green Bay. So, grab your Gjallarhorn and yell “Skol!” Standings: Packers 14-3, Lions 13-4, Vikings 13-4.

How About the No. 1 Seed?

You can’t be the No. 1 seed without being No. 1 in the division. With that taken care of, the Packers need to not just catch but pass the Philadelphia Eagles, who are 10-2 and have the head-to-head tiebreaker.

Here’s Philadelphia’s closing schedule:

vs. Carolina Panthers (3-9), vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-3), at Washington Commanders (8-5), vs. Dallas Cowboys (5-7), vs. New York Giants (2-10).

The Eagles are rolling with eight consecutive wins. The Panthers, Cowboys and Giants look like easy wins on paper. That means Philadelphia must lose those back-to-back games against the Steelers and Commanders.

No. 2 Seed Isn’t Bad

Even if Green Bay wins the NFC North but finishes behind Philadelphia, the No. 2 seed would be a big prize.

That would mean the Packers would host the No. 7 seed (presumably the NFC East runner-up) while the Lions and Vikings would have to hit the road for the wild-card round. The No. 2 also would get a divisional-round home game. How about Lions-Packers, Round 3, at Lambeau Field?

NFC Playoff Standings

1. Detroit Lions: 11-1 (first place, NFC North)

2. Philadelphia Eagles: 10-2 (first place, NFC East)

3. Seattle Seahawks: 7-5 (first place, NFC West)

4. Atlanta Falcons: 6-6 (first place, NFC South)

5. Minnesota Vikings: 10-2 (second place, NFC North)

6. Green Bay Packers: 9-3 (third place, NFC North)

7. Washington Commanders: 8-5 (second place, NFC East)                                        

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8. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 6-6 (second place, NFC South)

9. Arizona Cardinals: 6-6 (second place, NFC West)

10. Los Angeles Rams: 6-6 (third place, NFC West)

11. San Francisco 49ers: 5-7 (last place)

12. Dallas Cowboys: 5-7 (third place, NFC East)

13. New Orleans Saints: 4-8 (third place, NFC South)

14. Chicago Bears: 4-8 (last place, NFC North)

15. Carolina Panthers: 3-9 (last place, NFC South)

16. New York Giants: 2-10 (last place, NFC East)

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Bill Huber
BILL HUBER

Bill Huber, who has covered the Green Bay Packers since 2008, is the publisher of Packers On SI, a Sports Illustrated channel. E-mail: packwriter2002@yahoo.com History: Huber took over Packer Central in August 2019. Twitter: https://twitter.com/BillHuberNFL Background: Huber graduated from the University of Wisconsin-Whitewater, where he played on the football team, in 1995. He worked in newspapers in Reedsburg, Wisconsin Dells and Shawano before working at The Green Bay News-Chronicle and Green Bay Press-Gazette from 1998 through 2008. With The News-Chronicle, he won several awards for his commentaries and page design. In 2008, he took over as editor of Packer Report Magazine, which was founded by Hall of Fame linebacker Ray Nitschke, and PackerReport.com. In 2019, he took over the new Sports Illustrated site Packer Central, which he has grown into one of the largest sites in the Sports Illustrated Media Group.