How Cold Will It Be For Packers-Dolphins on Thanksgiving?

With winter descending on Green Bay, the Packers and Miami Dolphins will battle on Thursday night at Lambeau Field.

Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami Dolphins froze in last year's playoff loss at the Kansas City Chiefs. / Denny Medley-Imagn Images

GREEN BAY, Wis. – It will be cold for the Green Bay Packers’ Thanksgiving night game against the Miami Dolphins.

But not so cold that the Dolphins are going to freeze at Lambeau Field.

According to WBAY-TV meteorologist Steve Beylon, it will be about 28 degrees with a wind-chill index of 18 and maybe a few flurries at kickoff of Thursday night’s game. A west-northwest wind will range from 10 to 15 mph.

The weather might not be much of a benefit for the Packers, who failed to handle the cold and rain against the Detroit Lions a few weeks ago.

The weather will be a factor the Dolphins have to handle, though. The high in Miami for Thursday is expected to hit 83, or more than 50 degrees warmer than in Green Bay.

The Dolphins’ cold-weather history will be a storyline this week.

According to Stathead, the Dolphins haven’t won a game with a kickoff temperature below freezing since 2013. They’ve lost six consecutive games in freezing weather.

The Dolphins have been bounced from the playoffs the last two years in cold-weather games.

In last year’s playoffs, the Dolphins lost 26-7 at Kansas City. That game was inhumanely cold with a kickoff temperature of minus-4 for the Saturday night game. Tua Tagovailoa was 20-of-39 passing for 199 yards, including a 53-yard touchdown pass to Tyreek Hill, but Miami failed to score on its final eight possessions.

In the 2022 playoffs, the Dolphins lost 34-31 at Buffalo. With a kickoff temperature of 27, backup quarterback Skylar Thompson threw for 220 yards but Miami managed only 231 yards and couldn’t recover from an early 17-0 deficit.

A few weeks earlier, Miami lost a regular-season game in Buffalo 32-29. It was 29 for the primetime kickoff. Tagovailoa was 17-of-30 passing for 234 yards and two touchdowns, good for a passer rating of 104.0, as Miami gained 405 yards. So, in weather much closer to what they’ll face in Green Bay, the Tagovailoa-led offense functioned just fine.

The Dolphins want to show they can handle the elements. With a 5-6 record, their season might depend on it.

“I'm eager for those moments, just like you’re eager to settle the score,” Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel said after his team posted its third consecutive victory, 34-15, over the Patriots on a 73-degree day in Miami. “If you believe that you're not just a front-running team, you have to win when there's some adversity going on.

“It doesn't bother me in any way, shape or form. We have some plans on how to attack this week, but I relish that opportunity because, yeah, there's one way to correct that. I know there's a locker room full of people that believe and are eager to set that narrative straight, but there's only one way to do it, and there's only one way you'd want it to be done is you want to go earn that sentiment or maybe some take-back from some people that have strong opinions, or they're going to be right and it's your choice as a team.”

It was 43 degrees at kickoff for Green Bay’s 38-10 victory over the 49ers on Sunday.

“I don’t think this is cold,” said running back Josh Jacobs, who rushed for three touchdowns. “I think this is smooth. So, they keep saying it’s not that cold yet. It don’t feel that cold yet, so we’ll see.”

Was he looking forward to more of a true cold-weather test?

“I like cold,” he said. “I like the cold because people don’t want to hit me. So, it’ll make it easier for me.”

Jordan Love won his only cold-weather start when the Packers beat the Chiefs 27-19 on a 31-degree night last season. Love was 25-of-36 passing for 267 yards and three touchdowns to outduel Patrick Mahomes.

The cold used to be a tremendous advantage for the Packers. Not anymore.

During the Matt LaFleur era, the Packers are 6-4 at home with a kickoff temperature of 32 or colder. That includes three stinging season-ending defeats:

- 20-16 against the Detroit Lions in the 2022 finale, which kept the Packers out of the playoffs in what wound up being Aaron Rodgers’ final game with the team. The kickoff temperature was 21.

- 13-10 against the San Francisco 49ers in the 2021 playoffs, with Green Bay being the No. 1 seed but one-and-done. It was 15 at kickoff.

- 31-26 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the 2020 NFC Championship Game. It was 29 that day.

It’s not just the weather for Miami. It’s the opponent. The Dolphins haven’t beaten a team with a winning record this season (Patriots twice, Jaguars, Rams, Raiders), and their five wins have come against opponents with a combined winning percentage of .263. That’s the lowest for any team with five-plus wins.

They have won three in a row, though. And since returning from a concussion, Tagovailoa has been on a heater. He ranks fifth in the NFL with a 106.3 passer rating.

So, McDaniel is making the weather and opponent a challenge for which to be thankful.

“Instead of complaining and wallowing in the fact that people say those things, we've been able to win some games with our backs against the wall, so to speak,” he said. “I've already told the team, there's two things that will be said until we do something about it, (and that is win games against) good teams and (in) cold weather.”

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In case you turned off the TV at the end of the game, here's what Josh Jacobs and Tom Brady had to say.https://t.co/8OqDvEJkbU

— Bill Huber (@BillHuberNFL) November 25, 2024

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