Packer Central

Huge Packers-Saints Point Spread Is Incredibly Rare

The Packers are on the verge of making the playoffs. The Saints are on the verge of losing a 10th game and probably will be starting a rookie quarterback. So, the Packers are enormous favorites on Monday night.

Bill Huber

Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love looks to pass against the New Orleans Saints last season.
Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love looks to pass against the New Orleans Saints last season. / Dan Powers-Imagn Images
In this story:

GREEN BAY, Wis. – The Green Packers are 14.5-point favorites for Monday night’s home game against the New Orleans Saints.

The game opened at 13.5 but has crept up to 14.5 at FanDuel Sportsbook. The spread is 14 at DraftKings Sportsbook as well as BetMGM, Caesars and other sportsbooks.

How rare is it to have that lopsided of a spread?

Only once since 2000 have the Packers been a bigger favorite, according to Stathead. That was in 2012, when they were 16-point favorites at home against the Jacksonville Jaguars, who were 1-5 at the time and on their way to a 2-14 finish. Green Bay won 24-15.

The Packers were 14.5-point favorites against the Detroit Lions in 2010 (28-26 win), 14-point favorites against the St. Louis Rams in 2011 (24-3 win) and 14-point favorites against the Lions in 2009 (26-0 win).

During the Matt LaFleur era, the Packers were 13.5-point favorites against the Jacksonville Jaguars in 2020 (24-20 win) and Lions in 2019 (23-20 win).

As at least 9.5-point favorites, the Packers under LaFleur are 10-0, though they covered the spread only four times.

During the Jordan Love era, the largest spread for the Packers was a mere 6 over the Giants last season. Green Bay lost 24-22.

As at least a 3-point favorite, Love is 10-3. That includes 7-1 this year; the exception was as a 3-point favorite against the Vikings in his return from a knee injury.

It will be LaFleur’s job to get the Packers ready to face a team that is not expected to have its starting quarterback (Derek Carr), star running back (Alvin Kamara) and top receiver (Chris Olave).

The Packers, with a chance to clinch a playoff berth, can’t look past the Saints, LaFleur said.

“This is the National Football League. You’d better get yourself ready to go; otherwise, you’re going to get your ass kicked,” he said on Friday. “I don’t care who you’re playing.”

While the Saints are only 5-9, they are 3-2 under interim coach Darren Rizzi. They were a two-point conversion away from beating the Washington Commanders last week with rookie quarterback Spencer Rattler coming off the bench..

“I’ve got a lot of respect for these guys,” LaFleur said. “If you looked at what they’ve been able to accomplish in a short period of time [under Rizzi]. Look at the game last week and their ability to come back. They had a chance to win the game on the last play of the game. So, to me, every week’s the same.”

During Rizzi’s five games, the Saints are No. 1 in the league in points allowed. In the 20-19 loss to Washington, they had eight sacks.

“It’ll be a good matchup,” Love said. “They definitely have a solid D-line with some good guys over there that do a good job rushing the passer. Like you said, they had a lot of success with the sacks. So, just something you’ve got to be conscious of, but our O-line’s been doing a great job keeping me protected, giving me enough time.”

This is the second-largest point spread in the NFL this season. Only the Baltimore Ravens’ game at the New York Giants two weeks ago had a larger spread, with Baltimore as 16.5-point favorites winning 35-14.

The Buffalo Bills, who will host the New England Patriots on Sunday, are also 14.5-point favorites this week.

The Packers hadn’t been more than 5.5-point favorites all season; they beat the 49ers and Cardinals and covered and they beat the Bears but did not cover.

The Packers are 7-0 against teams with a losing record this season.

“It always comes back to us, no matter who we’re playing,” LaFleur said. “We have not played a complete game, I would say, in all three phases in the same game. There’s been moments in every phase, but it always comes back down to focusing on yourself.

“And I don’t care who you’re playing in this league, you’re always competing against yourself and just wanting to put your best ball out there and then let the results go where they may.”

The Saints haven’t been an underdog of more than 13 points since 2000.

Teams this season are 9-1 when double-digit favorites.

Latest Green Bay Packers News 

Packers-Saints Friday injury report | NFC North power rankings and previews | Packers-Saints game preview | He’s “almost like Wolverine” | Packers-Saints Thursday injury report | He is the Packers’ No. 1 receiver | Packers-Saints: Matchups | Packers-Saints: TV, history, trends, notes | Edgerrin Cooper makes Player of the Week history | Weather could factor for Packers-Saints | Three paths to the playoffs for Packers | On SI NFL Power Rankings and draft report card | Packers On SI NFL Power Rankings | Big update in latest NFC, Super Bowl odds | Best third-place team ever?

Published |Modified
Bill Huber
BILL HUBER

Bill Huber, who has covered the Green Bay Packers since 2008, is the publisher of Packers On SI, a Sports Illustrated channel. E-mail: packwriter2002@yahoo.com History: Huber took over Packer Central in August 2019. Twitter: https://twitter.com/BillHuberNFL Background: Huber graduated from the University of Wisconsin-Whitewater, where he played on the football team, in 1995. He worked in newspapers in Reedsburg, Wisconsin Dells and Shawano before working at The Green Bay News-Chronicle and Green Bay Press-Gazette from 1998 through 2008. With The News-Chronicle, he won several awards for his commentaries and page design. In 2008, he took over as editor of Packer Report Magazine, which was founded by Hall of Fame linebacker Ray Nitschke, and PackerReport.com. In 2019, he took over the new Sports Illustrated site Packer Central, which he has grown into one of the largest sites in the Sports Illustrated Media Group.