Latest NFL Playoff Probabilities: Packers Know What’s at Stake at Lions

For the Green Bay Packers, Thursday’s game against the Detroit Lions will be their last chance to stay alive in the NFC North. Here are the latest playoff standings and probabilities.

Detroit Lions linebacker Jack Campbell (46) tries to tackle Green Bay Packers returner Keisean Nixon last month. / Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

GREEN BAY, Wis. – Between the end of practice and the start of his Sunday news conference, Green Bay Packers coach Matt LaFleur watched a bit of the Minnesota Vikings’ game against the Arizona Cardinals.

“You’ll have to tell me what happens,” LaFleur said.

Only a moment earlier, Aaron Jones scored the go-ahead touchdown for the Vikings and Shaq Griffin intercepted Kyler Murray to clinch a 23-22 win for Minnesota.

“Uh,” LaFleur said. He hung his head for a moment. Only he knows if the dejection was real.

The good news: The computers say the Packers have all but locked up a playoff spot. According to The New York Times and ESPN the Packers have a 99 percent chance to reach the playoffs. At NFL.com, it’s 96 percent.

Now the bad news: The Packers have won three consecutive games but haven’t been able to make up a bit of ground in the NFC North.

State of the NFC North

With Week 13 complete in the North and the Packers getting ready for a battle against the first-place Detroit Lions on Thursday night, here are the division standings:

Detroit Lions: 11-1 and have won 10 in a row.

Minnesota Vikings: 10-2 and have won five in a row.

Green Bay Packers: 9-3 and have won three in a row.

Chicago Bears: 4-8 and have lost six in a row.

For the Packers, this is their last stand. Their last chance to not just make a run at a division championship but earn homefield advantage with the No. 1 seed.

Packers safety Xavier McKinney embraced the magnitude of the game.

“This game’s important. I understand that, we understand that as a team,” he said. “We got a tough division, as you can see – the Vikings won today again. This game is going to be important for us moving forward toward the end of this thing, and we’re going to treat it as such and we’re going to get ready and prepare the right way and be ready to go Sunday. Or Thursday.”

The top three teams in the North have won a combined 30 games. With the Sunday night and Monday night games to be played, the most wins for any four-team division are the AFC West’s 28.

By total record, the NFC North is 34-14 while the AFC West is 28-20.

“I still think Chicago is no slouch of a team,” center Josh Myers said. “The entire North has been just incredibly competitive this year. It’s been fun to watch. There’s a lot of good teams. It’s challenging to play in.”

The Packers would be running away with the NFC West and NFC South titles. Instead, they’re in third place.

“I guess it’s just a tribute to the toughness of the North,” tight end Tucker Kraft said. “Teams in the North, we’re just playing tough football. We’re trying to win our division, get that first-round bye.”

NFC Playoff Standings

1. Detroit Lions: 11-1 (first place, NFC North)

2. Philadelphia Eagles: 10-2 (first place, NFC East)

3. Seattle Seahawks: 7-5 (first place, NFC West)

4. Atlanta Falcons: 6-6 (first place, NFC South)

5. Minnesota Vikings: 10-2 (second place, NFC North)

6. Green Bay Packers: 9-3 (third place, NFC North)

7. Washington Commanders: 8-5 (second place, NFC East)                                        

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8. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 6-6 (second place, NFC South)

9. Arizona Cardinals: 6-6 (second place, NFC West)

10. Los Angeles Rams: 6-6 (third place, NFC West)

11. San Francisco 49ers: 5-6 (last place, NFC West; at Buffalo on Sunday night)

12. Dallas Cowboys: 5-7 (third place, NFC East)

13. New Orleans Saints: 4-8 (third place, NFC South)

14. Chicago Bears: 4-8 (last place, NFC North)

15. Carolina Panthers: 3-9 (last place, NFC South)

16. New York Giants: 2-10 (last place, NFC East)

Packers Closing Schedule

Here are the final five games for the Packers. Their remaining opponents have a .600 winning percentage, tied for sixth-toughest, according to Tankathon. Detroit (.638) is the third-toughest and Minnesota (.617) the fourth-toughest.

Three of their final five games are on the road. The Lions have won 10 consecutive games, the Seahawks have won three straight and the Vikings have won five in a row.

Week 14: at Detroit Lions (11-1)

Week 15: at Seattle Seahawks (7-5)

Week 16: New Orleans Saints (4-8)

Week 17: at Minnesota Vikings (10-2)

Week 18: Chicago Bears (4-8)

Only that first game – a rivalry rematch at Ford Field – matters for now.

“We’re ready to go get a win on Thursday,” quarterback Jordan Love said.

Latest Green Bay Packers News 

Quay Walker had a breakout game against San Francisco. Could he do it again against the Dolphins?

Yes.

Now, he can do it again when the #Packers face the Lions on Thursday? Here's @JacobWestendorf on the rising linebacker.https://t.co/werDEwRdkN

— Bill Huber (@BillHuberNFL) December 1, 2024

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