Latest Packers Playoff Probabilities, Possibilities After Week 14

Here are the updated playoff standings and playoff probabilities, plus a look at the closing schedule, for the Green Bay Packers.

Green Bay Packers running back Josh Jacobs (8) breaks through the line before being tackled at the Detroit Lions. / Kimberly P. Mitchell / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

GREEN BAY, Wis. – The Green Bay Packers’ hopes of winning the NFC North almost certainly died with their loss at the Detroit Lions on Thursday night, but their playoff hopes are as strong as they were at this time last week.

The Packers in essence have a three-game lead in the race for the final spot in the NFC playoffs. With four games to go, Green Bay is 9-4 and leads the Washington Commanders (8-5) by one game for the sixth seed. The Los Angeles Rams (7-6) are the last team out in the NFC. The Packers have a two-game lead over the Rams but, really, it’s three games because of their head-to-head victory.

The big change in the NFC happened in the NFC South. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-6) beat the Las Vegas Raiders for their third consecutive win. They leaped over the Atlanta Falcons (6-7), who lost to the Minnesota Vikings for their fourth consecutive defeat.

The Packers will play at the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday night for what could be a wild-card preview. Green Bay is a 2.5-point favorite at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Seattle improved to 8-5 after winning at the slumping Arizona Cardinals for its fourth consecutive win.

Updated Packers Playoff Probability

According to The New York Times, the Packers have a 98 percent probability of making the playoffs. Even if they were to lose at Seattle, they’d have a 96 percent probability.

According to NFL.com, the Packers’ playoff probability is 96 percent. Indeed, the playoff field is practically set. While the seeds could be juggled, Green Bay is at 96 percent and Washington is at 80 percent; the Falcons are at 37 percent and the Rams are at 30 percent.

At Fox Sports, the Packers have a 97 percent chance to reach the playoffs. In light of their narrow loss at Detroit: “They'll almost certainly have to go through Detroit if they want to get to the Super Bowl, and that task doesn't seem as daunting to them as it probably did before.”

At Playoff Status, the Packers have a 97 percent chance to qualify for the playoffs. Broken down by seed, it’s 19 percent for No. 5, 59 percent for No. 6 and 19 percent for No. 7.

NFC Playoff Bracket

If the season were to end today, the Lions would be the No. 1 seed and the wild-card matchups would be the No. 7 Commanders at No. 2 Eagles, the No. 6 Packers at No. 3 Seahawks and the No. 5 Vikings at No. 4 Buccaneers.

Green Bay will play at Seattle on Sunday night. After losing five of six games, the Seahawks after their bye have won four in a row. They are only 3-4 at home.

The Packers trail the Vikings by two games for No. 5, but if Green Bay sweeps its final four games and Minnesota loses to Green Bay and at Detroit, the Packers would move up. That would mean a wild-card game at Tampa Bay, which has won three in a row.

Clearly, the Packers need to avoid the No. 7 seed, which would mean a trip to Philadelphia. Following a 2-2 start, the Eagles have won nine consecutive games. However, because they had a Week 5 bye, the wild-card game would mark their 14th consecutive week with a game.

Latest NFC Standings

1.. Detroit Lions: 12-1 (first place, NFC North)

2. Philadelphia Eagles: 11-2 (first place, NFC East)

3. Seattle Seahawks: 8-5 (first place, NFC West)

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 7-6 (first place, NFC South)

5. Minnesota Vikings: 11-2 (second place, NFC North)

6. Green Bay Packers: 9-4 (third place, NFC North)

7. Washington Commanders: 8-5 (second place, NFC East)                                        

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8. Los Angeles Rams: 7-6 (second place, NFC West)

9. Atlanta Falcons: 6-7 (second place, NFC South)

10. Arizona Cardinals: 6-7 (third place, NFC West)

11. San Francisco 49ers: 6-7 (last place)

12. Dallas Cowboys: 5-7 (third place, NFC East; vs. Bengals on Monday)

13. New Orleans Saints: 5-8 (third place, NFC South)

14. Chicago Bears: 4-9 (last place, NFC North)

15. Carolina Panthers: 3-10 (last place, NFC South)

16. New York Giants: 2-11 (last place, NFC East)

Packers Closing Schedule

After getting carved up by Jared Goff on Thursday night, here’s a look at the Packers’ final four opponents and their quarterbacks.

Week 15: at Seattle Seahawks (8-5)

Seattle has won four in a row. Geno Smith is only 18th in rating, but he is No. 1 in the NFL in completions, attempts and yards and fifth in completion percentage.

Week 16: New Orleans Saints (5-8)

New Orleans has won three of its last four games, though only 14-11 at the Giants on Sunday. Derek Carr is 10th in passer rating with 15 touchdowns vs. five interceptions but might have suffered a broken left hand, which would probably end his season.

Week 17: at Minnesota Vikings (11-2)

Minnesota has won six in a row. Sam Darnold threw five touchdown passes for the Vikings, who outscored the slumping Falcons 21-zip in the fourth quarter. Darnold is third in passer rating and touchdown passes, sixth in yards and seventh in completion percentage.

Week 18: Chicago Bears (4-9)

So much for a coaching change. The Bears got drilled 38-13 at San Francisco for their seventh consecutive loss. Caleb Williams’ passer rating the last four games, starting with the loss to Green Bay: 95.0, 103.1, 97.8 and 116.9. He has not thrown an interception in seven games.

Latest Green Bay Packers News 

Here's what gives the #Packers plenty of hope, despite their loss to the Lions on Thursday night.https://t.co/aYENr882cE

— Bill Huber (@BillHuberNFL) December 9, 2024

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