USATSI_14358720 — Photo by Jerry Habraken/USA Today Sports Images

2 Days Until Training Camp: 2 Potential Disasters

Here are the two worst-case scenarios for the Green Bay Packers with the first practice of their 2023 training camp set for Wednesday.

Author:
Bill Huber
Updated:
Jul 24, 2023 2:52 PM EDT
Original:
Jul 24, 2023

In this story:

Green Bay Packers

GREEN BAY, Wis. – In 2008, when the Green Bay Packers made the controversial decision to trade Brett Favre and hand the keys to the offense to Aaron Rodgers, they plunged from 13-3 to 6-10.

That’s seven fewer wins. Imagine if the Packers, who missed the playoffs with an 8-9 record last season, have the same difficulties in transitioning from Rodgers to Jordan Love.

With some obvious and ingrained strengths, such a horrendous flameout seems unlikely.

But not impossible.

With two days until the first practice of training camp, these are the two worst-case scenarios for the 2023 Packers.

1. Run Defense

With a defensive line consisting of a former Pro Bowler (Kenny Clark), two proven veterans (Dean Lowry and newcomer Jarran Reed), an ascending run-stopper (TJ Slaton) and a first-round pick (Devonte Wyatt), the Packers last season finished 26th with 139.5 rushing yards allowed per game and 28th with 4.95 yards allowed per carry.

By yards per carry, it was the second-worst season in franchise history. Their eight games of 150-plus rushing yards allowed were third-most in the league. Their 65 runs of 10-plus yards allowed were sixth-most.

Even when the Packers rallied to the cusp of the playoffs, the run defense was abysmal. It ranked 25th with 4.90 yards allowed per carry during the final five games.

All of that ineptitude came with three veterans on defensive line.

Now what?

Reed returned to the Seahawks. Lowry signed with the Vikings. Slaton and Wyatt, last year’s primary backups, are moving into the starting lineup. The rest of the depth chart, combined, has played zero regular-season snaps.

Is fourth-round pick Colby Wooden big enough and strong enough to stop the run? Is sixth-round pick Karl Brooks, who mostly played on the edge against Mid-American Conference foes, going to be stout enough against proven NFL blockers? Is 2022 seventh-round pick Jonathan Ford, a healthy inactive for every game as a rookie, ready to contribute?

Maybe this will be a case of addition by subtraction. Or, maybe this will be subtraction by subtraction. Maybe a leaky run defense will become the equivalent of running water through a kitchen colander.

If the Packers can’t stop the run, it’s going to be a long, long season. With a strong pass rush and excellent cornerbacks, Green Bay’s defense is built to, A, play from ahead and, B, to play from third-and-long. With Jordan Love and a green-as-grass passing game, it might not be playing from ahead with any regularity. With an unproven defensive line, will it at least get opponents into third-and-long?

2. Jordan Love

Without a great quarterback, it’s hard to be a great team. Without an average quarterback, it’s hard to be average.

Of the bottom 16 teams in passer rating last season:

- They averaged 6.3 wins.

- Two finished over .500 (Baltimore 10-7, and Pittsburgh, 9-8).

- One made the playoffs (Baltimore).

- Zero won a playoff game.

So, even if Joe Barry’s defense plays like it did down the stretch and even if Rich Bisaccia’s special teams grows into a powerhouse, the fate of the Packers will rest on the shoulders of Love.

That’s all obvious.

Jordan Love (Photo by Jeff Hanisch/USA Today Sports Images)

If the Packers finish, say, 3-14 because Love is a skittish interception machine, it won’t be the end of the world. While the on-the-field product will be a disaster, they’ll be in the mix to draft USC’s Caleb Williams or North Carolina’s Drake Maye. In a way-too-early look at the 2024 NFL Draft, one scout said Williams is the best quarterback prospect since Joe Burrow and Maye might not be far behind.

So, if the Packers are truly awful because Love isn’t good enough, it could be a one-year blip on the radar with another franchise quarterback on the way.

How this season would be a true disaster is if Love is just kind of OK. When the Packers went 6-10 in 2008, Rodgers finished fourth in passing yards and passing touchdowns and sixth in passer rating. By midseason, he had earned a six-year contract extension.

If Love finishes 20-something in passer rating and is no better in Week 18 than in Week 1 and the Packers go 6-11, this truly will be a lost season. The 2020 first-round pick used on Love will have been wasted. The lost opportunity to add receiver Tee Higgins to a team that had reached the NFC Championship Game in 2019 could haunt the team for years. Three years of grooming Love for this moment will have gone down the drain.

It all will have been a colossal waste of time, with no immediate hope of a brighter future. One losing year could turn into how many losing years?

The New York Jets have been terrible for years, churning through one bad quarterback after another. That’s why they probably overpaid for Rodgers.

After winning the Super Bowl in 2015, the Denver Broncos burned through five primary quarterbacks in a span of six years before risking it all to get Russell Wilson.

After the 2013 season, the Chicago Bears gave Jay Cutler a seven-year contract because, well, what else were they supposed to do? Cutler, flawed as he was, was better than the alternative.

The Packers have bet a lot on Love. A dumpster fire of a season might be hard for fans to swallow but it at least would provide an opportunity to rise from the ashes. A mediocre season filled with uninspiring quarterback play would be the worst-case scenario for a franchise that has thrived upon the golden right arms of back-to-back quarterbacking legends.