Five Days to Kickoff: 5 Packers-Jaguars Keys to Game

There are many reasons why the Green Bay Packers are 13.5-point favorites against the Jacksonville Jaguars. It starts with Aaron Rodgers against a bad defense.

GREEN BAY, Wis. – There are many reasons why the Green Bay Packers are 13.5-point favorites for Sunday’s home game against the Jacksonville Jaguars.

First and foremost, it’s quarterback Aaron Rodgers against a Jaguars defense that ranks 31st with 30.9 points allowed per game. They’re especially awful against the pass, checking in 31st in opponent passer rating, 31st in yards per completion and 30th in completion percentage.

The key will be protecting Rodgers. Jacksonville has a league-low eight sacks but has applied quite a bit pressure, ranking fifth in quarterback knockdown rate, according to Pro Football Reference. Defensive coordinator Todd Wash blitzed Houston quarterback Deshaun Watson on half his dropbacks last week.

“What is your pressure plan? How are you going to get the ball out of the quarterback’s hands? What are you going to do up front in terms of if they have something within their scheme that can give you problems?” Packers coach Matt LaFleur said on Monday. “I’ve got a lot of respect for Todd Wash. He’s been at this thing for a long time and does a great job with the defense. We’ve got to be mindful of that and make sure we look at everything and understand how to get the ball out of the quarterback’s hands yet still gain yards and have success.”

Rodgers is No. 1 in the NFL in passer rating but just No. 21 when under pressure, according to Pro Football Focus. If given time, Rodgers should have a big day against a defense that has allowed four 300-yard passers.

Here are the rest of this week’s five keys to the game.

2. Mr. Robinson

Including Green Bay’s AJ Dillon, 18 running backs were drafted this year. None of them were James Robinson. Nonetheless, his 580 rushing yards trail the rookie leader, Kansas City’s Clyde Edwards-Helaire, by just 6 yards. Overall, he’s third with 18 carries of 10-plus yards and 10th with 3.00 yards after contact per carry, according to Pro Football Focus.

Everyone knows the Achilles heel to Green Bay’s defense. The Packers are 21st with 4.53 yards allowed per carry. While it hasn’t been bludgeoned for a lot of long gains, it hasn’t made many big plays, either, with only one team producing fewer stuffs (a tackle at or behind the line vs. the run). If it can’t do better against Robinson, it could become a long afternoon.

3. Baby Chark, Doo-Doo-Doo

At 6-foot-4 and with 4.34 speed in the 40, Jaguars D.J. Chark has a rare blend of size and speed that makes him a game-breaking threat. Including the 73-yard touchdown early last week against Houston, Chark has caught 7-of-15 deep passes this season. That’s tied for the seventh-most in the league. Rookie quarterback Jake Luton might lack Gardner Minshew’s polish and accuracy but he’s got a live arm.

Even with starting corner Kevin King missing the last four games, the Packers’ secondary has been excellent against receivers. Only three teams have allowed fewer yards than Green Bay, thanks in large part to the dominance of Jaire Alexander. The status of King (quad) and Alexander (concussion) will be worth monitoring.

4. Turnstile Taylor

Jacksonville selected offensive tackle Jawaan Taylor early in the second round of the 2019 draft. In time, maybe he’ll play to those expectations. However, he remains a work in progress. Of 55 offensive tackles to play at least 50 percent of the pass-protecting snaps this season, the Jags’ right tackle ranks 52nd in PFF’s pass-blocking metric with five sacks and 32 total pressures.

Za’Darius Smith and Preston Smith had some impactful rushes against San Francisco on Thursday night and could be primed to do so again if the Packers can take an early lead.

5. Red Zone

For as poorly as the Jaguars’ defense has played this season, it’s surprisingly strong in the red zone. Jacksonville is ninth in red-zone defense (57.6 percent) while Green Bay’s red-zone offense is seventh with a touchdown rate of 74.2 percent. Until a failure in the second half at San Francisco, the Packers had scored touchdowns on 12 consecutive red-zone trips and 17 of 18.