A Must-Win, Or Pretty Darned Close, for Packers

The Green Bay Packers, so good at bouncing back, must beat the Chicago Bears on Sunday to avoid an 0-2 start and a daunting history.

GREEN BAY, Wis. – Week 1 was a big game for the Green Bay Packers. By losing it, Week 2 becomes downright vital.

How important is Sunday night’s game against Chicago Bears?

Since 2002, when the NFL expanded to 32 teams and created eight four-team divisions, Week 1 winners are more than twice as likely to qualify for the playoffs as Week 1 losers. Of the teams that won their opener, 166 reached the playoffs and 112 won their divisions. Of the teams that lost their opener, 78 reached the playoffs and just 48 won their divisions.

Having gotten trounced by the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday, the pressure is on the Packers to bounce back against Chicago. History says it’s critical. According to the league, since 1990, 42.0 percent of teams that started 1-1 qualified for the playoffs compared to only 11.3 percent of teams that started 0-2.

That makes this game a must-win – or pretty darned close. Fortunately for the Packers, history is on their side. Under fourth-year coach Matt LaFleur, the Packers have not lost back-to-back games within the same regular season.

“Just flushing it. Not getting too low with the lows and not too high with the highs,” receiver Allen Lazard said of the team’s bounce-back success. “I think that’s just kind of been the mantra that’s always been here. It’s the standard of going out there and no one really cares about the last play, the last quarter, the last game. It’s always about going out there and doing your best and helping the team win. Chicago doesn’t care. They’re not going to come in here playing any softer or taking it a little bit lighter, so we can’t feel sorry for ourselves. We’ve got to be able to get back to .500.”

Of course, having the four-time MVP slinging the football is one way to avoid losing streaks. Over the past three seasons, when quarterback Aaron Rodgers has lost a start, he’s bounced back by throwing 22 touchdowns and zero interceptions.

“I think for a lot of us, we just haven’t had bad games back-to-back too many times, coaches and players,” Rodgers said.

As the mandatory financial disclaimer states, past performance is no guarantee of future results. Just because the Packers have always rebounded under LaFleur doesn’t mean they’ll rebound again.

After all, the team that regrouped with a seven-game winning streak after getting crushed by the Saints last year isn’t the same team that must regroup again. That team had a well-stocked group of veteran pass catchers, led by indomitable Davante Adams. This team isn’t nearly as loaded on the perimeter and could be down three starting linemen.

“I think that’s just life in the National Football League. If you live on what you did yesterday, whether you win or you lose, you’re not going to get better,” LaFleur said. “We’re always going to be very, very critical and hard on ourselves from a coaching standpoint, from a player standpoint, and try to make the necessary adjustments, try to make the necessary corrections and try to avoid this in the future as best we can. This league is a humbling league.”

Interestingly, according to the NFL, dating to 1990, there have been more division winners that started 1-1 (111) than 2-0 (106). That was Green Bay last year. However, only 15 teams that dropped their first two games won the division and just 30 qualified for the postseason.

Here’s the reality confronting the Packers: In the two seasons with the 14-team playoff format, exactly zero teams reached the playoffs after starting 0-2.

“I think that for us is priority No. 1, that it’s a North Division game,” LaFleur said. “It is a great rivalry, though, and you can feel the energy when you go into the stadium. The fans love it. But, certainly, the fact that it’s a North opponent is absolutely critical — and a team that is one game up on us right now.

“This is definitely a very, very, very important game really for both sides but especially for us.”