Aaron Jones’ Free Agency and the Truth About Big-Budget Running Backs

The Packers might not have gotten to consecutive championship games without Aaron Jones, but at no position is past performance more irrelevant than at running back.

GREEN BAY, Wis. – Aaron Jones is one of the great running backs in the NFL. With a fifth-ranked 3,017 total yards and a second-ranked 30 total touchdowns over the past two seasons, he was an integral part of the Green Bay Packers’ run to back-to-back NFC Championship Games.

Coming off his first Pro Bowl season, Jones is headed to free agency at the right time. Even with COVID-19 taking a big bite out of the salary cap, he is expected to command top dollar when the free-agent negotiating period begins on March 15. At a cost of about $8 million, Green Bay could keep him with the franchise tag, though there’s a reason why it used a second-round pick on running back AJ Dillon last year.

Dillon showed flashes as a rookie, specifically during a strong performance vs. Tennessee in Week 16. However, for a team looking to finally get over the hump and reach a Super Bowl, it’s impossible to argue the Packers would be a better team without the running and receiving skills that Jones brings to the offense.

Cap concerns notwithstanding – and those concerns are real but not insurmountable – there’s peril in paying second-contract money to a running back, whether it’s a long-term commitment or the one-year price of the franchise tag.

From one perspective, teams seem to understand the risk. Over the past 14 offseasons, only six running backs were tagged. By comparison, six specialists (five kickers and one punter) were tagged in 2012 alone. Then again, despite the hazard, massive second contracts continue to be doled out to players at a brutally physical position in which production can fall suddenly and unpredictably.

That risk is obvious, which no doubt is why general manager Brian Gutekunst drafted Dillon even with Jones and Jamaal Williams in the backfield. A total of 10 running backs are averaging at least $7 million per season, including seven with lofty price tags of at least $12 million per season. It could be argued only three of those players were worth the price in 2020.

The list:

Christian McCaffrey, Carolina ($16.02 million per year): Coming on the heels of his league-leading 2,302 total yards and 19 total touchdowns, McCaffrey signed a four-year deal worth just over $64 million before the 2020 draft. Injuries, however, limited him to only three games.

Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas ($15 million per year): The fourth pick of the 2016 draft, Elliott had a miserable season. Without quarterback Dak Prescott to provide balance, he had 979 rushing yards, 1,317 total yards, eight total touchdowns and 4.8 yards per touch. Those were all the worst of the two-time rushing champ’s career.

Alvin Kamara, New Orleans ($15 million per year): Kamara inked a five-year, $75 million extension after Week 1. He set career highs with 932 rushing yards, 83 receptions, 1,688 total yards and 21 total touchdowns. He averaged 6.3 yards per touch. In four seasons, he’s been selected for four Pro Bowls.

David Johnson, Houston ($13 million per year): Johnson led the NFL with 2,118 total yards and 20 total touchdowns in 2016. He’s scored 24 total touchdowns the past four seasons combined. In 12 games in 2020, he rushed for 691 yards, posted 1,005 total yards and scored eight touchdowns.

Dalvin Cook, Minnesota ($12.6 million per year): A day before the opener against Green Bay, Cook signed a five-year extension worth $63 million. The money was well spent. Despite missing two games, he rushed for 1,557 yards and 16 touchdowns and finished with 1,918 total yards.

Derrick Henry, Tennessee ($12.5 million per year): Henry’s the baddest running back on the planet. Given a four-year, $50 million contract in July, he rushed for 2,027 yards and 17 touchdowns in 2020 to be named the NFL’s Offensive Player of the Year.

Joe Mixon, Cincinnati ($12.0 million per year): Mixon signed a four-year, $48 million extension before the season but played in only six games because of a foot injury. His 4.0 yards per touch was the worst of his career. He was coming off back-to-back seasons of 1,168 and 1,137 rushing yards.

Kenyan Drake, Arizona ($8.47 million per year): Drake rushed for a career-high 955 yards in 2020 but also had a career-low 4.1 yards per touch. In five years, he’s never touched 1,200 total yards or scored more than 10 touchdowns.

Melvin Gordon, Denver ($8.0 million per year): In six years, the former Wisconsin star has one 1,000-yard season. That was in 2017, the only time he’s started more than a dozen games. He averaged 4.6 yards per touch last year.

Saquon Barkley, Giants ($7.8 million per year): The second pick of the 2018 draft had two big seasons but suffered a torn ACL in Week 2 of 2020.

It’s against that backdrop that Gutekunst must weigh Jones’ big-play diversity vs. the reality that there’s never a guarantee that Year 5 for a running back will be anywhere near Years 3 and 4. Player pay will always be about balancing past performance and projecting it to the future. At no position is past performance more irrelevant than at running back, where injuries can turn stars like McCaffrey and Mixon into cheerleaders, and studs like Johnson, Todd Gurley and Le’Veon Bell can become duds in the blink of an eye.