After Compensatory Picks, Packers Should Spend in NFL Free Agency

The Green Bay Packers haven’t been aggressive in NFL free agency since 2019. Here’s why it’s time for GM Brian Gutekunst to open the checkbook.

GREEN BAY, Wis. – The Green Bay Packers were awarded three compensatory picks on Friday. Since the advent of the comp-pick system three decades ago, only two teams have been awarded more selections than the Packers.

Here’s the simplified version of how it works: Teams that lose more and better unrestricted free agents than they sign can qualify for a compensatory pick or picks. Typically, the higher the annual salary, the better the compensation. Street free agents – veterans who have been released – do not count on the formula.

For the draft-and-develop Packers, their roster-building strategy has resulted in 52 additional draft picks. While there were more misses than hits, Ron Wolf selected Marco Rivera and Scott Wells. Ted Thompson landed Josh Sitton and Aaron Jones. Brian Gutekunst added Zach Tom.

As Gutekunst plots his offseason path toward improving a team that reached the playoffs behind quarterback Jordan Love, compensatory picks should be the furthest thing from his mind.

They probably will be, too.

This is the year for Gutekunst to party like it’s 2019, when he signed Za’Darius Smith, Preston Smith, Adrian Amos and Billy Turner in a big-time shopping spree.

Last offseason, Allen Lazard signed a four-year, $44 million contract with the Jets, the biggest contract for any free-agent receiver. The Packers picked up a fifth-rounder in return on Friday. In 2022, the Packers received a fourth-rounder for losing center Corey Linsley to the Chargers on a five-year, $62.5 million deal. In 2021, they received a fourth-rounder for losing linebacker Blake Martinez to the Giants on a three-year, $30.75 million contract.

The Packers won’t lose anyone of that magnitude from their 12-player pool of unrestricted free agents this offseason. Remember, the lower the price tag, the lower the level of compensation.

From a potential-compensation perspective, Green Bay’s top free agents this offseason are guard Jon Runyan and safety Darnell Savage. Runyan is a proven blocker with a track record of toughness and pass protection. He will be an immediate starter, wherever he signs. Savage was a first-round pick in 2019; draft grades matter, even several years after the fact. His spurts of high-end play and obvious athleticism should make him a commodity. Running back AJ Dillon and slot defender/All-Pro returner Keisean Nixon should have markets, as well.

However, none of those players are going to get a budget-busting contract.

Last offseason, for a point of reference, the Houston Texans signed safety Jimmie Ward away from the 49ers on a two-year deal worth $6.5 million per season. The 49ers were given a sixth-round pick on Friday.

One executive thought Runyan and Savage would be the most expensive of Green Bay’s free agents but at probably $5 million per season.

With that, Gutekunst should make at least a couple splash signings this offseason. Signing a safety such as the Giants’ Xavier McKinney for $10.4 million per season – that is Spotrac’s projection – would be more than worth the sixth-round comp pick the Packers could have coming for losing Savage.

So, Gutekunst should get as far below the salary cap as possible, load up with as many difference-makers as possible in a 2019-style spending spree, and then get back into the routine of harvesting compensatory picks.

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