‘Aggressive’ Packers Defensive Coordinator Jeff Hafley? Here’s Data

Is new Packers defensive coordinator aggressive in terms of blitzing and coverage? Here is what the numbers say from his tenure at Boston College.

GREEN BAY, Wis. – The Green Bay Packers hired Jeff Hafley as defensive coordinator. He purportedly will bring an “aggressive” approach to Green Bay.

Heck of a football coach@packers defense will be much much more aggressive https://t.co/ioahlnynAA

— Dan Orlovsky (@danorlovsky7) February 1, 2024

Or, at least a “much, much more aggressive” scheme than the one directed by Joe Barry the previous three seasons.

AJ Hawk on #PMSLive talking about the Jeff Hafley hire ⤵️

“Everyone loves how aggressive he is, how aggressive his scheme is—

seems like a good hire man, really does” pic.twitter.com/DNIpX5y3hc

— Hogg (@HoggNFL) February 2, 2024

The numbers, however, paint at least a slightly different picture.

Pro Football Focus sent a treasure trove of Hafley-related data to Packer Central, including numerous tendencies from the 2023 season in which Boston College finished with a 7-6 record and ranked 70th (out of 130 teams in FBS) in total defense, 96th in yards per play and 83rd in points allowed per play.

Here are some of those numbers and the rankings in the 14-team ACC over his four-year tenure as coach as well as in 2023:

• 9th in blitz rate on pass plays (38.8%)

• 2nd in blitz rate on third-down passes (55.5%)

In 2023, according to the PFF data, Boston College was:

• 7th in blitz rate on pass plays (36.4%)

• 5th in blitz rate on third-down passes (46.8%)

If you were to project based on those numbers, Hafley’s goal is to lean on his defensive front to make plays on first and second down, where they were 10th in blitz rate at 32.4 percent but fourth in defensive-line stunt rate at 24.6 percent, in hope of getting to third-and-long, where he will attack.

Blitzing, of course, isn’t the only way to measure aggressiveness. Indeed, by that measure, the Packers under Barry were one of the more aggressive defenses in the NFL. According to SportRadar, the Packers were No. 25 in blitz rate in 2021 but No. 5 in 2022 and No. 10 in 2023.

Another way is to look at coverage. With Barry, it was predominantly a two-shell zone defense meant take away the big play. It was a decidedly unaggressive way to play defense. This presumably will be the big change, with Hafley leaning heavily on single-high approaches.

According to PFF, Boston College played press coverage 45.0 percent of the time. Packer Central did not have data for Green Bay’s press-man reliance, but it certainly was not to that level. However, in the 14-team ACC, BC’s 45.0 percent ranked only ninth.

It’s that number that makes any projection a challenge. College football is a different game, starting with the quarterbacks. Put simply, most college quarterbacks aren’t accurate enough to consistently beat press-man coverage. So, most defenses play a lot of it, confident that their defensive backs will eventually make a play on a wayward throw.

Presumably, Packers coach Matt LaFleur hired Hafley to play with the same general style as at Boston College. However, like any good coach, Hafley will have to adjust and adapt to the realities on the ground.

Will he have the cornerbacks necessary to play a steady diet of press-man coverage against the high-quality quarterbacks and elite receivers that populate the NFL? Will he have the ground-covering safety necessary in order to put an extra man in the box to stop the run?

Hafley’s defenses at Boston College ranged from mediocre to bad. However, you’re only as good as your personnel, and schools like Boston College face an uphill climb in today’s NIL world to compete from a personnel perspective. 

When the Packers were struggling on offense through the first half of the season, LaFleur preached process over results. The process was sound, so he thought the results would come. He was right.

That’s the bet with Hafley. LaFleur loves the process. We’ll see if the results will follow.

McDuffie Eager to Play Again Under ‘Aggressive’ Hafley