Deep Thoughts on the Packers’ Passing Game

Without a marquee receiver or deep threat, the Green Bay Packers have been forced to dink-and-dunk, an approach that is getting increasingly more difficult.

GREEN BAY, Wis. – Here’s the long story, short, on the Green Bay Packers’ passing game.

Entering Week 6, Aaron Rodgers’ average completion has traveled 3.83 yards downfield, according to the NFL’s official stats. Of 32 qualifying quarterbacks, that’s the shortest in the league by a significant margin. Arizona’s Kyler Murray is 31st with 4.05 yards; 25 quarterbacks are at least 1.4 yards further.

This isn’t an all-or-nothing passing attack. It’s a short-or-nothing attack.

Overall, Rodgers is 12th in the NFL with 114 completions.

According to Pro Football Focus, Rodgers ranks:

- 16th with six completions thrown 20-plus yards downfield

- 20th with 17 completions thrown 10 to 19 yards downfield

- 19th with 52 completions thrown from the line of scrimmage to 9 yards downfield.

You know what’s coming next. He is No. 1 with 39 completions thrown behind the line of scrimmage. That’s 34.2 percent of his completions.

The problem with relying on the really-short game is the Packers aren’t loaded with great run-after-catch threats. Obviously, running back Aaron Jones is excellent anytime he’s got the ball in his hands, but he’s on pace to catch 48 passes – four fewer than last year. Rookie Romeo Doubs has shown some signs, which is why eight of his 22 receptions have come behind the line. So has fellow rookie Christian Watson, but he’s been perpetually slowed by a hamstring injury.

However, combined, every Packers receiver and tight end has forced seven missed tackles out of 95 receptions. Four individuals have forced more, according to PFF. Throw in Jones and fellow running back AJ Dillon, the total is 10.

The more Green Bay’s offense becomes dependent on running the ball and short passes, the more defensive coordinators – such as the Giants’ Wink Martindale on Sunday in London – are going to dare Rodgers to make a play down the field. At this point, that looks like a winning bet, with Rodgers ranking 29th with a 27.3 percent completion rate on passes 20-plus yards downfield, according to PFF.

That’s a sharp but predictable downturn. Rodgers completed 39.1 percent of his deep attempts in 2021 and 41.6 percent in 2020, when he was No. 1 in deep yards and No. 3 in deep touchdowns. When you lose a premier receiver like Davante Adams, who can win at any distance and monopolizes so much of the defense’s attention, and a premier deep threat like Marquez Valdes-Scantling, who had to be accounted for on every snap, it turns out that creating big plays becomes a lot more difficult.

Rodgers missed on all his deep shots against the Giants, so his average completion in that game traveled a feeble 2.8 yards downfield.

If nothing else, Watson should have been that guy to take over Valdes-Scantling’s stretch-the-field role. But he is out again with a hamstring injury, his rookie season having taken one detour after another.

So, Rodgers has been left with two unappealing options. Keep throwing it short and hoping his receivers can maximize the available yardage – tougher to do as defenses crowd the line – or keep launching it deep and hoping enough plays are made to make defenses back off.

“We just want to be efficient,” Rodgers said on Wednesday. “However we’re getting the ball down the field is how we’re going to do it. We’d obviously like to hit some of those chunk plays. A lot of them have been off-schedule stuff, second-, third-window stuff, on-the-move stuff. We’ve got to start hitting some of those in-the-pocket things when we get opportunities, but a lot of it’s just been the little details on some of the routes and me and the receivers not being on the same page.”

Better pass protection would help Rodgers see the field and throw with better fundamentals to improve his accuracy. Sticking with the run would create more play-action opportunities.

“Let’s just face it: The further you throw the ball down the field, the less percentage it is that it’s going to be complete,” coach Matt LaFleur said on Monday. “I’m sure you always would like to throw the perfect ball on every play, and that’s just not going to happen every time. I think there’s some things we can do from a protection standpoint to maybe give Aaron a tick more time to him being balanced in the pocket and then the wideouts creating separation. I think everybody can improve.”

Rodgers, obviously, is part of that “everybody,” but a scout of an upcoming opponent thought the Packers would be “0-5 without A-Rod.”

With no consistent ability to throw the ball downfield, the Packers have played one awful half on offense in each of the five games. Rodgers and the receivers need to get “on the same page,” to use Rodgers’ words after Sunday’s game, more often. The pass protection needs to be better. Doubs needs to grow into a bigger role. The question is, can the Packers do those things at a high enough level to beat the NFL’s good teams?

Time is running out.

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