Dillon Needs To Show He’s Big-Time, Not Just Big

The big plays remain missing for powerful Packers running back AJ Dillon.

GREEN BAY, Wis. – In 2021, Green Bay Packers running back AJ Dillon was effective but not explosive. Headed into organized team activities in 2022, running backs coach Ben Sirmans talked about the key to Dillon breaking off more big runs.

In 2022, Dillon was effective but not explosive. Headed into organized team activities in 2023, Sirmans talked about the key to Dillon breaking off more big runs.

“I think the biggest thing for him is obviously running with that good pad level,” Sirmans said on Thursday. “I gave him a couple of mechanical drills to do that kind of focus more on his knee lift when guys are coming at him (low). In our room, we always talk about accelerate on contact. And even when he was hit low, if he accelerated through the contact point, he usually either got tackled going forward or he broke through the tackle.”

Football Outsiders has a stat called success rate. Success rate mirrors Green Bay’s win/loss grading system. For instance, a first-and-10 run that gains 4 yards is a win (to the Packers) or a success (to Football Outsiders).

In 2021, of 50 running backs with at least 100 rushes, Dillon ranked first in success rate. In 2022, of 42 backs with at least 100 carries, Dillon ranked fifth.

So, when Dillon got the ball, he generally kept the Packers in good down-and-distance situations. That’s important – and will be even more important considering the youth-laden passing game that will be directed by Jordan Love.

Now, just like a year ago, the key for Dillon isn’t just turning something into something more; it’s turning something into something bigger. That means juking past the linebacker or barreling through the defensive back with more regularity.

In 2021, of that group of backs with 100 carries, Dillon had the lowest percentage of 10-yard runs. In 2022, Dillon’s 10-yard run rate improved from 4.8 percent to 8.1 percent. That’s progress but still only 35th out of 42.

Last season, Dillon ranked 27th in the NFL with 185 carries and 32nd with 15 runs of 10-plus yards. For reference, his tag-team partner, Aaron Jones, ranked 15th with 214 carries and sixth with 31 runs of 10-plus yards, a 10-yard run rate of 14.5 percent.

Dillon – aka Quadzilla because of his ridiculously muscular legs – is incredibly difficult to bring down. However, being tough to bring to the turf doesn’t always equate to breaking tackles and dragging defenders for extra yards. For Dillon, too often, it simply meant absorbing more punishment.

According to Sports Info Solutions, Dillon broke a tackle or forced a missed tackle on 8.1 percent of his runs in 2022. Among the 42 backs with 100 rushing attempts, that ranked 36th.

With Dillon entering the final season of his rookie deal and playing for a new contract, he needs to show he’s a big-time runner and not just a big runner.

That process will begin with the start of OTAs on Monday.

“The biggest thing we always talk about is you can’t let your legs die when you get hit, which gets back to that accelerating on contact,” Sirmans said. “We do different drills, but a big part of it is a mind-set that even though this guy’s coming at me pretty low, I’m not going to allow him to bring me down. And then some of those mechanical drills that I gave him to work on in the offseason, I think those things should help him.”

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