Five Reasons Why Packers Can Win Super Bowl

The Packers are "just kind of an average team that knows how to win," and can continue to win all the way to Miami

GREEN BAY, Wis. – With an inconsistent offense and a defense that gives up too many explosive plays, it’s easy to argue that the Green Bay Packers won’t win this year’s Super Bowl.

“We’ve won five in a row, but no one here is going to say we’re on a tear because you guys like telling us how we’re just kind of an average team that knows how to win,” quarterback Aaron Rodgers said. “But the key point is the win part.”

Here are five arguments why the Packers will extend their winning streak to eight and hoist the Lombardi Trophy on the evening of Feb. 2.

The Rodgers factor

With back-to-back games with a completion percentage of less than 50 percent, Rodgers is coming off a dubious first in his incredible career. However, he put together an excellent second half to rally the Packers at Minnesota, made the key throws to help propel a big second-half rally at Detroit and is having a better season than you might think.

Experience matters. Rodgers, New England’s Tom Brady, New Orleans’ Drew Brees and Seattle’s Russell Wilson are the four quarterbacks in the playoff field who have played in (and won) a Super Bowl. Rodgers is the only one with a first-round bye. Backed by perhaps the best combination of running game and defense in his 12 years as the starter, Rodgers will be difficult to beat if he can get the offense going before halftime. The timing has “been off for a lot of the year,” Rodgers said, so it will be about finding the plays that have worked and making them work.

“This team I think is balanced as opposed to some of the earlier teams. I think we do a good job of winning the one-score games,” he said after the Detroit game. “I think when we have to make plays, we get stops, turnovers and then we make it happen on offense. That’s kind of the identity of this offense. It hasn’t been pretty at times but, when we have to make plays, we’ve made plays. Now, we have the opportunity to host a second-round game at home and hopefully it’s below 30. But I think we’re going to be a tough team to deal with in the playoffs.”

Jones and Adams

Other than perhaps New Orleans’ Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas, there might not be a better running back-receiver duo in the playoffs than Green Bay’s Aaron Jones and Davante Adams. Good players win games. Great players win big games.

Adams and Jones are great players.

Since coming back from his toe injury, Adams has three games with least 93 yards with three topping 100. The Packers won all four of those games. Jones has six games of 100-plus scrimmage yards. Actually, all six of those games went for more than 140 yards. The Packers are 6-0 in those games.

Everyone knows that the offense must run through No. 17 and No. 33. The defense knows it and the Packers know it. It will be up to coach Matt LaFleur to use the bye to find new ways to get this playmakers the ball.

Stingy on defense

With outside linebackers Za’Darius Smith and Preston Smith contributing 25.5 sacks and Adrian Amos and first-round pick Darnell Savage fixing the safety corps, general manager Brian Gutekunst’s heavy investment on the defensive side of the ball paid huge dividends.

While the defense hasn’t been great on a down-to-down basis, the name of the game is keeping teams out of the end zone and creating big plays. So, while it finished just 18th in total defense, Green Bay finished ninth with 19.6 points allowed per game. That’s a vast improvement over 2018 (25.0 points, 22nd), 2017 (24.0, 26th), 2016 (24.3, 21st) and marks only the third time in 10 seasons that it allowed less than 21 points per game.

“We had some games that we still had stretches where were a little rough around the edges and we were just in search of that put-it-all-together game, and then obviously that happened on Monday,” defensive coordinator Mike Pettine said last week after the Minnesota game. “But as we told our guys today, ‘That can’t be a one-time thing.’ I mean, this is something to build off of. We always use the phrase, ‘You guys were caught on tape.’ Like, ‘We know you can do it. That’s the standard.’”

For what it’s worth, when Green Bay allowed a 12th-ranked 20.2 points per game in 2014, it reached the NFC Championship Game; when it allowed a second-ranked 15.0 points per game in 2010, it won the Super Bowl.

Clutch performers

With an 8-1 record in one-score games, the Packers had the best winning percentage and second-most wins in the league in games decided by eight points or less. In the back-to-back wins over Minnesota and Detroit to end the season, the Packers overcame poor first halves to win. Obviously, turnovers and inefficient play in the first half against a playoff opponent is a losing recipe, but the Packers showed their mettle in beating Minnesota by two touchdowns and overcoming a two-touchdown deficit at Detroit. This is a team that won’t be fazed if it’s staring at a touchdown deficit entering the fourth quarter.

“There’s an expectation that if we get the ball in two-minute, we’re going to score,” Rodgers said. “That belief carries a lot of weight in those situations. The calmness with which we operate in those situations, I think, allows us to really focus and personally allows me to get in my zone as far as what plays I want to get to.”

Improving special teams

Through Week 12, Green Bay’s special teams ranked 26th in the league and were 10th among the 12 teams that wound up in the playoffs. However, this unit is on the upswing. In our five-category rankings, Green Bay over the final five weeks:

- Improved from 21st to 17th in starting field position on a kickoff return.

- Improved from 21st to 18th in opponent starting position following a kickoff.

- Improved from 29th to 21st in opponent net punting average.

- Fell from 21st to 24th in net punting average.

- Fell from fourth to fifth in field-goal percentage.

The Packers have the eighth-best special teams in the playoff field, though that ranking is obviously hurt by past sins. What returner Tyler Ervin did in his four games to fix the first and third of those categories has been incredible. Meanwhile, Green Bay’s kickoff coverage – the second category – has become a strength. It’s allowed just 19.5 yards per return the past eight games compared to 29.2 yards the first eight games.

Special teams can be especially valuable in the playoffs, when the margin for error is slimmer. Coordinator Shawn Mennenga’s units are peaking at the right time.