The 53-man projection, Version 3

The Packers must cut their roster to 53 players by 3 p.m. Saturday. Here's our guess at what the roster will look like as the Packers start getting ready for the Bears on Sunday.

Led by general manager Brian Gutekunst and coach Matt LaFleur, the Green Bay Packers have started the arduous, painstaking job of getting their roster down to 53 players, a task that probably won’t be completed until close to Saturday’s 3 p.m. deadline. Based on Thursday’s preseason game, here is our final 53-man projection.

QUARTERBACK

Who makes it (3): Aaron Rodgers, Tim Boyle, DeShone Kizer.

Who does not: Manny Wilkins.

Change from last week: None.

Reasoning: The Packers could go with Kizer or Boyle as the lone backup to Rodgers and put Wilkins on the practice squad as an unofficial third quarterback. Like I’ve written before, though, Rodgers’ injury history is hard to ignore. What happens if Rodgers were to suffer a significant injury and then the lone backup got hurt? Sure, you could say the season would be over, anyway, but this defense is good enough to keep the team in games. So, I’ll stick with three. Boyle, who led the NFL in preseason passer rating and preseason touchdown passes, put up 52 points to Kizer’s 17 in their four games. It’s a production-based league and that is hard to ignore. “All I can do is play ball right now and put good film out there, and I think I’ve done that well enough to put myself in a good spot,” Boyle said after the game. “But, from here on out it’s a waiting game.”

RUNNING BACK

Who makes it (4): RB Aaron Jones, RB Jamaal Williams, RB Dexter Williams, FB Danny Vitale.

Who does not: RB Tra Carson, RB Keith Ford, FB Malcolm Johnson, FB Tommy Bohanon.

Change from last week: Dexter Williams is in; Carson is out.

Reasoning: Williams finished the preseason with a bang, including a 21-yard gain on a screen that set up the winning touchdowns. Still, he’s a work in progress. On the first possession of the third quarter, it appeared he missed a blitz pickup, which resulted in Kizer getting leveled. Carson remains the best all-around back because he can contribute as a runner, blocker and receiver. But he should also be an easy practice-squad stash. Williams’ explosiveness could help the team in a small role behind Jones and Jamaal Williams. “You always want a little more,” Gutekunst said earlier in the week. “Dexter’s coming now. I think you’ve seen his growth since he first got here. Obviously, when you put the ball in hands, I mean, he’s got some dynamic stuff to him. I think there was a lot of things that maybe on our level are a little bit more important – pad level, blocking, doing some of the little things special teams-wise that he wasn’t used to. But he’s grown in that area. But every time we give him the ball, he seems to do something good with it.”

RECEIVER

Who makes it (6): Davante Adams, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Geronimo Allison, Jake Kumerow, Allen Lazard, Trevor Davis.

Who does not: Equanimeous St. Brown (injured reserve), Darrius Shepherd, J’Mon Moore, Malik Taylor, Teo Redding.

Change from last week: None.

Reasoning: This projection is based on who will be on the practice field for Sunday or Monday and not who survives Saturday. St. Brown was carted off the field against Oakland with an ankle injury and is a candidate to be placed on short-term injured reserve. To be eligible, he must start the season on the 53-man roster. So, the guess here is that St. Brown will make it on Saturday and be placed on IR on Sunday. Shepherd’s fumble on a kickoff return against Kansas City might have doomed his roster chances, but it makes sense to take advantage of his underdog background and put him on the practice squad. After all, considering a total of 101 receivers were gobbled up on draft weekend and Shepherd was not among them, it’s hard to imagine the Packers couldn’t get him on the practice squad. While receiver is a dime-a-dozen position, Lazard’s 6-foot-5, 227-pound frame is relatively unique and gives him a chance to contribute as a role player. His size would help offset the loss of the equally towering St. Brown.

TIGHT END

Who makes it (4): Jimmy Graham, Marcedes Lewis, Robert Tonyan, Jace Sternberger.

Who does not: Evan Baylis, Pharoah McKever.

Change from last week: None.

Reasoning: Assuming Sternberger’s ankle injury isn’t serious – he said it’s not, for what it’s worth – it’s almost impossible to see this shaking out any other way. Graham will be the starter, Tonyan will contribute regularly and Lewis will do the dirty work as the unit’s only proven blocker. Sternberger was sidetracked after missing a couple weeks with a concussion suffered in a joint practice against Houston. At this point, the third-round pick will be a regular on the game-day inactive list.

OFFENSIVE LINE

Who makes it (8): LT David Bakhtiari, LG Lane Taylor, C Corey Linsley, RG Billy Turner, RT Bryan Bulaga, OT Alex Light, G Elgton Jenkins, G/C Lucas Patrick.

Who does not: G/C Justin McCray, G Cole Madison, G Anthony Coyle, T Gerhard de Beer, T/G Adam Pankey, T Yosh Nijman.

Change from last week: Taylor is in; McCray is out.

Reasoning: Kudos to Gutekunst and LaFleur for giving the starting job to Taylor. Most times in the NFL, a talented draft pick gets the nod over a relatively high-priced veteran. Doing so is a loss in the short term with the hope of gaining in the long term. To my eye, Jenkins wasn’t clearly better than Taylor, so the Packers did the right thing with an eye on today instead of tomorrow. McCray and Patrick are similar players in terms of experience and guard/center versatility. So, Thursday’s playing time was telling: Patrick did not play and McCray played all 55 snaps. While Light has gotten better and better throughout camp and also was deemed too important to play on Thursday, if a quality offensive tackle pops free on Saturday, the Packers no doubt would be interested. Madison, a fifth-round pick last year, and Nijman, an undrafted rookie with excellent athleticism, should be easy practice-squad stashes.

DEFENSIVE LINE

Who makes it (5): Kenny Clark, Dean Lowry, Montravius Adams, Tyler Lancaster, Kingsley Keke.

Who does not: Fadol Brown, James Looney, Deon Simon, Olive Sagapolu.

Change from last week: None.

Reasoning: The only wild card entering this week was Brown. He made some plays last year as a late-season addition and was heavily involved in the defense until suffering a calf injury that kept him out of the first three preseason games. His ability to play inside and outside fits defensive coordinator Mike Pettine’s scheme. Maybe he dominated on the practice field when reporters weren’t present this week, but he had an uneventful 15 snaps against the Chiefs. Besides, with outside linebackers Za’Darius Smith and Rashan Gary set to be part of the defensive line mix, is there any point in keeping six defensive linemen? Lancaster, an undrafted free agent last year who opened the season on the practice squad, is now deemed too important to play in the final preseason game. Keke has impressed at every turn and might wind up being a fifth-round steal.

OUTSIDE LINEBACKER

Markus Jones

Who makes it (5): Za’Darius Smith, Preston Smith, Rashan Gary, Kyler Fackrell, Markus Jones.

Who does not: Randy Ramsey, Greg Roberts, James Folston.

Change from last week: Reggie Gilbert (trade) is out; Jones is in.

Reasoning: With Gary and, especially, Za’Darius Smith moonlighting as interior rushers on third-and-long, it’s probably a necessity to keep at least five. While Fackrell had the breakout season with 10.5 sacks last season, Gilbert actually had as many pressures with 21, according to Pro Football Focus. He also led the outside linebacker corps in snaps per tackle last year. That didn’t stop Gutekunst from shipping him to Tennessee for a seventh-round pick. That perhaps opens the door for the aforementioned fifth. I had the athletic but raw Ramsey pegged as that possibility last week but it’s hard to overlook the sight of Jones splitting a double team, nailing the quarterback and creating Ty Summers’ pick-six. As a senior at Division II Angelo State, he piled up an astounding 17.5 sacks and national-best 36.5 tackles for losses. “It meant the world,” he said after the game. “Especially from a Division II and to come into where I am now, it’s just a blessing. Thank God for everything that happened up until now and all the support from everyone. It’s just surreal. Hard work is noticed no matter what.”

INSIDE LINEBACKER

Who makes it (5): Blake Martinez, Oren Burks, James Crawford, Ty Summers, TBA.

Who does not: Curtis Bolton (injured reserve), Brady Sheldon.

Change from last week: Summers is in.

Reasoning: Burks avoided surgery on a partially torn pectoral muscle and shouldn’t miss too much of the regular season. That’s the good news. The bad news is the Packers might have to find some veteran depth for the interim, because Crawford has played one regular-season defensive snap and Summers hasn’t played any. Then again, maybe Summers’ play the last couple of games and the desire to use safety Raven Greene as a linebacker lessens the need. With Chicago running back Tarik Cohen coming up on Thursday, Greene figures to have a prominent role. Crawford makes it on special teams; he forced a fumble vs. Kansas City.

CORNERBACK

Who makes it (7): Jaire Alexander, Kevin King, Tramon Williams, Josh Jackson, Tony Brown, Ka’Dar Hollman, Chandon Sullivan.

Who does not: Kabion Ento, Nydair Rouse, Jackson Porter, Jocquez Kalili.

Change from last week: None.

Reasoning: King missed the final 11 practices of training camp and didn’t play in the preseason with a hamstring injury. He’s in no danger of not making the team but the team’s patience has to be running short. Jackson missed the first 11 practices of camp and has been slow to make an impact upon his return. The Packers have been doomed by a lack of cornerback depth the past three seasons but Brown – who was held out of Thursday’s game – has been the biggest surprise of training camp and Hollman earned rave reviews since the spring. Of 184 cornerbacks with at least 25 coverage snaps this preseason, Hollman entered Thursday’s game ranked seventh with 0.14 yards allowed per coverage snap, according to Pro Football Focus. He struggled against the Chiefs’ quick receivers, though. Sullivan defended five passes in the preseason and can play safety, which gives him the edge for a last roster spot.

SAFETY

Who makes it (3): Adrian Amos, Darnell Savage, Raven Greene.

Who does not: Ibraheim Campbell (PUP), Will Redmond, Natrell Jamerson, Tray Matthews.

Change from last week: Will Redmond is out.

Reasoning: The signing of Campbell solidified this week’s release of Josh Jones. However, he didn’t practice this week as he battles back from last year’s torn ACL. If he stays on PUP, he’ll have to sit out at least the first six weeks of the season. Redmond and Jamerson can play cornerback, slot and safety, and Matthews can play the dime linebacker role, so the versatility here stands out. Redmond had seven tackles against the Chiefs but also an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty. In a hotly contested battle for roster spots, that might not help his cause. Matthews, who had six tackles and a sack-fumble vs. Kansas City, is an intriguing option.

SPECIALISTS

Who makes it (3): K Mason Crosby, P JK Scott, LS Hunter Bradley.

Who does not: K Sam Ficken.

Change from last week: None.

Reasoning: Before LaFleur closed all but the opening periods of the final four training camp practices, Ficken was 34-of-42 (81.0 percent) on field goals while Crosby was 16-of-17 (94.1 percent). “Mason has been a premier kicker in this league for a long time,” Gutekunst said. “Obviously, he's handled this stadium and this weather and you can't ignore that stuff.” That doesn’t mean Crosby is in the clear, though – and his missed extra point didn’t help. His cap charge of $4.85 million makes him the most-expensive kicker in the NFL. Coming off a poor season and with changes at coach and special-teams coordinator, Crosby doesn’t have much of a safety net. The same is true for Bradley, who hasn’t had any awful snaps in camp but hasn’t always been on the money.