Countdown to Kickoff: Packers at 49ers Preview

Run defense matters. Or does it? Plus, four keys to the game, three reasons to worry, two X-factors and a prediction in a pear tree.

GREEN BAY, Wis. – The Green Bay Packers’ putrid run defense bit them in the butt on Sunday against Minnesota, no different than it did at San Francisco in last year’s NFC Championship Game.

With Dalvin Cook running for 163 yards on a miserably windy day last week, the last-place Vikings upset the first-place Packers. For all the focus on Green Bay’s limited arsenal of playmakers, it was a cruel reminder of the team’s greatest weakness from last season and its inability to bolster it for this season.

The Packers enter Thursday’s game against the 49ers ranked 22nd in the NFL with 4.65 yards allowed per carry. Last year, they were 24th with 4.67 yards allowed per carry.

With a roster built to stop opposing quarterbacks rather than running backs, perhaps a case could be made that defensive coordinator Mike Pettine should load the box to take away the run and force the opposition to throw the ball at Jaire Alexander and Co.

“I don’t think you can give any offense the steady diet of just one thing,” Pettine disagreed on Wednesday. “We do have a ton of faith certainly in Jaire. Jaire, I challenge somebody to find a corner who’s having a better season than he is. And certainly Sully (Chandon Sullivan) has been very productive for us from the nickel spot and Kevin (King) was playing at a high level and unfortunately got hurt. …

“Yeah, there are times where it’s a calculated risk and you put those guys on an island. I just don’t think you can give a team a steady of look of ‘Hey, listen, we’re going to put those guys one-on-one on the outside for an entire game’ and say, ‘We’ve got to stop the run.’ I think you’ve got to change it up, you’ve got to disguise it.”

While a bad run defense might seem disqualifying for any championship contender, it’s worth noting last year’s Super Bowl champions, the Kansas City Chiefs, ranked 29th in the NFL with 4.93 yards allowed per carry. In 2018, the New England Patriots ranked 29th with 4.91 yards allowed per carry but won the Super Bowl.

On the opposite side, the previous three champions played excellent run defense. The 2017 Philadelphia Eagles ranked seventh with 3.76 yards allowed per carry, the 2016 New England Patriots ranked eighth with 3.85 yards allowed per carry and the 2015 Denver Broncos were first with 3.28 yards allowed per carry.

That’s not to say Green Bay’s struggles against the run are irrelevant. It is to say, like most things in the NFL, there’s no tried and true factor that separates the champions from the also-rans.

With that as a leadoff, here are our usual weekly features boiled down to one story.

Four Keys to the Game

1. Protecting Rodgers: San Francisco defensive coordinator Robert Saleh likes to blitz. Generally, the Packers feel pretty good about that with the blitz-pickup skills of running backs Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams. However, Jones might not play and Williams won’t play. Green Bay’s running backs could be Dexter Williams and Tyler Ervin. Neither have a pass-protecting track record. Williams’ poor pass-protection in camp is why he didn’t make the roster. While a running back by trade, Ervin spent all of his training camp playing receiver. Will they be ready mentally and physically?

“They test any back that’s going to be back there,” offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett said on Wednesday. “We have to be ready for everything they’re going to do. There’s a lot of stuff you have to prepare for on a short week, too. That’s probably the biggest test is guys having to go in there and just execute any play. We’ve just got to hope that they’ve been looking in their books. Up to this point, it sure looks like they have. I’m excited to see both those guys get out there.”

2. Turnovers: The Packers have forced a league-worst four turnovers. The 49ers have turned over the ball 11 times, tied for eighth-most. Nick Mullens, who is replacing injured quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, has thrown 12 interceptions in 10 career starts, including two against Philadelphia last month.

3. Pettine vs. Shanahan: In 2014, Packers defensive coordinator Mike Pettine was coach of the Browns and 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan was his offensive coordinator. After the season, Shanahan resigned. He made those reasons abundantly clear.

“It wasn’t a PowerPoint presentation,’’ Shanahan said in 2017. “It was all on paper. I gave a number of points — 32 of them. I gave them to the head coach, told him he could do whatever he wanted with those, whether he gave them to the owner or the general manager. I’m sure that he did. I just wanted to be up front about it.”

Pettine said Shanahan “quit.”

This will be their fourth matchup in their current posts. Green Bay won 33-30 in 2018, when C.J. Beathard was the Niners’ quarterback, and the 49ers won 37-8 and 37-20 last year. That’s 34.7 points by Shanahan’s offenses. Pettine’s defense must do much, much better in Round 4.

4. Bring the Juice: The Packers were upset last week due in part to a lack of juice. “Just not feeling the energy and we were admittedly flat. There just wasn’t that – especially playing defense, you have to be at a certain emotional level, and we weren’t there,” Pettine said.

It would be easy for the Packers to take this game for granted. The 49ers are a decimated bunch. With the odds stacked against them, the Niners certainly will be charged up for this game. Green Bay must match that energy and show its dominance from the start.

Three Reasons to Worry

1. Niners’ Running Game: Yes, the 49ers will be without running back Raheem Mostert, left tackle Trent Williams and center Ben Garland. That doesn’t mean their running game will be feeble, though. Veteran running back Jerick McKinnon is one of the Niners’ top weapons with a 4.4-yard average, 21 receptions and five total touchdowns. San Francisco ran roughshod over Green Bay in the NFC Championship Game. That wasn’t only because of Mostert, who embarrassed the Packers with 220 rushing yards and four touchdowns. It was because the Niners dominated the trenches. Green Bay’s defensive front seven has shown no signs of dominating this season. It’s worth nothing the 49ers are first in the NFL with 14 rushing touchdowns and the Packers are last in the NFL with 10 rushing touchdowns allowed.

2. Niners’ pressure: Injuries have taken a bite out of San Francisco’s pass rush, with Nick Bosa, Dee Ford and Ziggy Ansah on injured reserve. However, Kerry Hyder has picked up the slack with 4.5 sacks. And Arik Armstead, who led the Niners with 10 sacks last year and dominated the Packers with three sacks in the two matchups, remains in the lineup.

Rodgers’ passer rating when pressured this season is a woeful 63.1 on a meager 20-of-54 passing.

3. One-Dimensional?: If Jones is out, do the Packers have enough firepower to run the football? A sixth-round pick last year, Dexter Williams has five carries for 11 yards. In his fifth season, Ervin has 10 rushes for 68 yards – with 43 of those yards coming on four attempts this season, when he’s played mostly receiver. Can the Packers run the ball enough to keep the 49ers off-balance? Or can Rodgers replicate Russell Wilson’s success? With Seattle down its top two running backs last week, Wilson threw for 261 yards and four touchdowns in a 37-27 win.

Two X-Factors

1. Green Bay – LB Krys Barnes: One lasting memory from the Packers’ loss in the NFC Championship Game was veteran linebacker Blake Martinez continually being outflanked by the 49ers’ dominant running attack. Barnes, an undrafted rookie, figures to be the main man in the middle of Green Bay’s defense in this matchup. While the Niners won’t have Mostert and his 5.9-yard average, the scheme, three-fifths of the offensive line and standout fullback Kyle Juszczyk are intact.

2. San Francisco – CB Jason Verrett: Verrett was the Chargers’ first-round pick in 2014. When healthy, he was very good. Problem was, he was rarely healthy. From 2014 through 2019, he played in only 26 of a possible 96 games. Half of those games came in 2015, when he intercepted three passes and was selected to the Pro Bowl. He played in four games in 2016, one in 2017, zero in 2018 and one in 2019, his first year with the Niners. This year, he’s started six games. According to Pro Football Focus, of 74 cornerbacks with at least 50 percent playing time, Verrett ranks fourth in snaps per reception and third in yards per snap.

One Prediction

Take nothing for granted. The 49ers demolished the Packers in both matchups last season. Coach Kyle Shanahan is a brilliant offensive mind and Robert Saleh is one of the top defensive coordinators in the NFL. They’ll figure out a way to make the game interesting.

Still, let’s not overthink it, either. Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, running back Raheem Mostert, tight end George Kittle, receivers Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk, left tackle Trent Williams, defensive linemen Nick Bosa, Dee Ford and Solomon Thomas and cornerback Richard Sherman aren’t just starters. They are 10 quality starters. None of them will play.

If Green Bay doesn’t win this game, then general manager Brian Gutekunst’s stand-pat approach at the trade deadline will have been proven correct. One player can’t fix a team, especially one that loses to a team down many of its best players.

Prediction: Packers 31, 49ers 17. (Record: 5-2).