Prediction: Why Aiyuk Fits Packers in First Round

A receiver? A defensive lineman? An offensive lineman? Who will Green Bay Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst select on Thursday?

GREEN BAY, Wis. – The combination of quarantine, home-school teacher and 10 weeks of NFL Draft research have me thinking like the great Don Henley.

“The more I know, the less I understand.”

I’ve researched more than 300 prospects. I’ve written profiles on 188 players (with the intention of adding more to the receivers on Friday morning). I’ve talked to/texted with a bunch of scouts who long ago had grown weary of working from home rather than on the road or at team headquarters. I’ve done a bunch of mock-draft simulations.

With all of that, Henley’s words ring true.

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On WBAY-TV’s annual “Cover 2” draft special, I did a seven-round mock draft. I selected TCU’s Ross Blacklock for three reasons. First, he’s good and is worthy of being taken 30th. Second, because the defensive line depth doesn’t last as long as it does at other positions, I wanted to get one before the talent pool ran short. Third, the Packers also need a receiver and offensive tackle (among other positions) and those draft classes are excellent, so I figured there would be value in Day 2.

Video: TCU's Ross Blacklock

I recorded my TV segment on Monday night, a few hours after general manager Brian Gutekunst held a conference call. I reflected on that call on Tuesday morning. These two quotes hit me.

First, Gutekunst was asked about this year’s receiver class.

“It’s a deep class this year. I think that’s been talked about at length,” he said. “But, at the same time, you don’t really know when the runs are going to happen. It’s going to go one of two ways: Either it’s going to go fast or everyone is going to think they can get guys later and it’s going to go slow, but we’ll see how it goes. It is a deep class, but I don’t think you can just count on things and wait and expect to get a really good player. So, if there’s guy we think can play and can help us, I don’t think we’ll wait too long.”

Second, I asked Gutekunst about whether he and coach Matt LaFleur had discussed the need to get a receiver who can thrive in the slot.

“We’ve had a lot of conversations, not necessarily about getting that kind of player, but the preferences he had and some of the different positions he runs out there,” Gutekunst said. “So, we’ve talked about it a bunch. We’re both kind of aligned in, in a perfect world, you’d like to draw them up exactly with the skill-set of the position you want them to play. But that’s usually just the way it works. Guys have to be able to do everything, and if they're better at one thing than the other, that's fine. But in this game, injuries and things that happen. They’ve got to be able to play pretty much everywhere, and that may take time from a learning perspective. I think at the end of the day, we’d all rather have well-rounded football players that can do a lot of things than maybe somebody that’s just really good at one particular thing.”

Boiling those two statements down, if there’s a receiver available in the first round who can play in the slot but isn’t only a slot receiver, Gutekunst might pounce.

Arizona State’s Brandon Aiyuk is that receiver.

Video: ASU's Brandon Aiyuk

Aiyuk recorded 65 receptions for 1,192 yards and eight touchdowns during an All-American senior season. Several other numbers stand out:

First, it’s hands. He ranked eighth in the draft class by catching 90 percent of catchable passes, according to Sports Info Solutions. With 9 3/4-inch hands, he dropped only five of 104 targets, according to SIS.

Second, it’s his run-after-the-catch ability. He averaged 10.9 YAC per catch – second only to Oklahoma’s CeeDee Lamb in the draft class – and finished sixth among our top 32 receivers with one broken tackle for every 4.64 receptions, according to Pro Football Focus. “With my running back background, I feel like after I catch the football, I transition back into that running back I used to be,” he said. According to PFF, Aiyuk forced 14 missed tackles in 12 games. All of Green Bay’s receivers combined forced nine in 16 games.

Third, it’s the length that allows him to play so much bigger than his 5-foot-11 5/8-inch frame. Of the receivers at the Combine, he ranked sixth with 33 1/2-inch arms and tied for fifth with an 80-inch wingspan. The receivers who matched or surpassed Aiyuk’s wingspan were all at least 6-foot-3 5/8. He also had a 40-inch vertical, further increasing his catch radius. “Playing above the rim,” he said. “I measured in at 5-11, so I think the wingspan helps that out. People have questions about getting able to go get the jump balls, but with the vertical of mine and my wingspan, I feel like it’s no different than somebody being 6-3, 6-4.”

Fourth, Aiyuk can play in the slot but isn’t “just” a slot. According to SIS, he lined up in the slot 28 percent of the time in 2019. Of those, he caught all 24 catchable passes for 392 yards. He averaged 11.5 yards per target, which ranked third in the draft class. Aiyuk has the quickness, run-after-catch and short-area explosion of a slot receiver but the length that puts him in the class with the tall receivers Gutekunst has favored in his tenure as GM.

Fifth, it’s special teams. On kickoff returns, he averaged 31.9 in 2019 and 27.1 yards for his career; on punt returns, he averaged 16.1 yards (one touchdown) in 2019 and 11.7 yards for his career.

So, with the assumption that linebackers Kenneth Murray and Patrick Queen are off the board and a high-impact receiver provides more impact than a defensive lineman (Blacklock) or offensive lineman (USC’s Austin Jackson), my guess is Aiyuk is Gutekunst’s guy.