Green Bay Packers Tough Decisions: Aaron Rodgers

With Aaron Rodgers, the Green Bay Packers have a chance to win a Super Bowl. Without Rodgers, the Packers have a chance to rebuild quickly.

GREEN BAY, Wis. – A key offseason is here for the Green Bay Packers. The decisions that general manager Brian Gutekunst makes in the next few weeks to navigate through a $50 million hole in the salary cap will determine whether the Packers will contend for a Super Bowl in 2022.

This series of stories focuses on the critical decisions that lie ahead. Part 6 focuses on quarterback Aaron Rodgers.

QB Aaron Rodgers: 2022 Status – Under Contract

There are big decisions. And then there are big decisions. Franchise-altering decisions. League-altering decisions

The Packers’ decision on Rodgers is the biggest a franchise could possibly make.

With Rodgers, the Packers will have a chance to compete for a championship in 2022. Without him, they probably will not.

With Rodgers, they’ll presumably get some instant salary-cap relief via a contract extension but be paying through the nose for the four-time MVP over the long term. Without Rodgers, they’ll save $19.8 million against the cap.

With Rodgers, the Packers will reload as best they can despite their major cap problems. Without Rodgers, they’ll try to rebuild on the fly.

The pros of keeping Rodgers, who is entering his final season under contract, are obvious. In a league filled with hot-shot young quarterbacks, Rodgers has won back-to-back MVPs.

While he admittedly did not play well in the playoff loss to San Francisco, the Packers probably would not have reached the playoffs without him throwing 37 touchdowns vs. four interceptions. With ACL tears sidelining their best offensive linemen (David Bakhtiari and Elgton Jenkins) and their standout tight end (Robert Tonyan), the Packers still won 13 games for an unprecedented third consecutive season.

However, it is fair to wonder: If the Packers couldn’t get to the Super Bowl this year, when they seemingly had everything in their favor with homefield advantage, “Packers weather” for the divisional playoff game, fans in the stands and the return of some injured players, will they be able to navigate through their massive cap problems and get to the Super Bowl in 2022 or 2023? Those cap problems are going to make it incredibly difficult to retain all their top players, let alone add to the roster.

An argument could be made that the Packers should bite the bullet and start a new chapter. One high-ranking NFL executive, who is on the fast track toward becoming a general manager, said the Packers should expect to get in return two first-round draft picks and a starter.

And if the Packers aren’t going to keep Rodgers, they might as well use the franchise tag on receiver Davante Adams and trade him, too. Another league executive said the Packers should be able to get two first-round picks for Rodgers and two firsts (or a first and a second, depending on draft slot) for Adams. That’s the potential for four first-round picks (plus their own first-round picks) and a chance for a financial reset.

With a quality offensive line, an excellent tandem in the backfield and the ingredients for a good defense, the Packers would be competitive most weeks. Then, it would be up to general manager Brian Gutekunst to figure out the team’s quarterbacking future and put those first-round picks to use to get the team back into the ranks of championship contenders.

Gutekunst hasn’t aced the draft but his previous first-rounders were turned into Jaire Alexander, Rashan Gary, Darnell Savage, Jordan Love and Eric Stokes. Even if Love winds up being a total flop, which is quite possible given his performances at Kansas City and Detroit, it’s hard to quibble with the rest of his first-round haul.

Signs point to Rodgers coming back, perhaps as early as Tuesday with a speculated appearance on The Pat McAfee Show. First, there are words. Team President Mark Murphy and coach Matt LaFleur have said they want Rodgers back. Then, there are actions. Tom Clements was pulled out of retirement to coach the quarterbacks. Coach Matt LaFleur has no history with Clements; Rodgers spent 11 seasons with Clements.

If the team thought Love was the worthy successor to Rodgers, it might have traded Rodgers already so it could recalibrate its financial situation. If the team wasn’t scarred from the Brett Favre divorce in 2008, it might have made the change. If the team wasn’t afraid to rebuild after three decades of sustained success have spoiled its fans, it might have decided to start anew.

Instead, the team seems poised to roll with Rodgers until his legendary right arm falls off and hope that the 12th time’s the charm in finally getting back to a Super Bowl. A return to the NFL championship game seems infinitely further away than it was a month ago, but still a whole lot closer than it would be with someone else at quarterback.

Ranking the Packers’ Offseason Needs

No. 11: Running Back

With Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon, the Packers have one of the top one-two punches in the NFL. So long as Kylin Hill recovers from the ACL tear sustained at midseason, the Packers don’t even have a long-term need if they decide to move on from Jones after the 2022 season.

No. 10: Safety

Adrian Amos and Darnell Savage form a high-quality tandem but the depth is lacking. Henry Black wasn’t good enough as the No. 3 safety in 2021 and former seventh-round pick Vernon Scott fell off the face of the earth. Amos will be entering his final season under contract with a cap charge of almost $12 million. A well-deserved extension would kill two birds with one stone. Savage also will be entering his final year under contract, unless the team flips the switch on the fifth-year option. So long as Amos and Savage return, the need really is for depth.

No. 9: Quarterback

Signs point to Aaron Rodgers’ return to the team he’s led since replacing Brett Favre in 2008. Maybe Tom Clements is hungry for a paycheck, but it’s hard to believe a 68-year-old coach with no ties to Matt LaFleur would come out of retirement to coach Jordan Love and Kurt Benkert. If Rodgers is coming back, it presumably will be with a new contract. How long is that contract? And if it phases Love out of the equation altogether, is it time for the Packers to draft the next quarterback-in-waiting?

No. 8: Specialists

Questions, questions and more questions.

Those start with kicker Mason Crosby. Crosby is entering his final season under contract with a cap number of $4.735 million that will rank seventh among kickers. He is coming off a dismal season in which his 73.5 percent success rate on field goals ranked next-to-last among kickers with at least 20 attempts. He’ll turn 38 before the start of the season and the Packers can save almost $2.4 million by making a change. JJ Molson, who spent the year on the practice squad, has a big leg but wasn’t even a reliable kicker at UCLA.

Punter Corey Bojorquez, who was excellent to start the season but struggled down the stretch, will be a free agent. With a booming leg, it’s easy to see how he could be a man in demand.

Long snapper Steven Wirtel figures to be back with a challenger.

No. 7: Cornerback

When Jaire Alexander went down with a serious shoulder injury, the Packers tried but failed to land All-Pro Stephon Gilmore. Incredibly, not much more than an hour after Gilmore signed with Carolina, the Packers announced the signing of Rasul Douglas off Arizona’s practice squad. Gilmore was really good for the Panthers but Douglas was great. He ranked among the NFL leaders with five interceptions even though he started only nine games. It will be interesting to see how he’s viewed around the NFL when free agency begins. Will he be seen as the journeyman he had been? Or will he be seen as a lockdown corner? Slot corner Chandon Sullivan and injury-prone Kevin King also will be free agents. So, while Alexander and Eric Stokes could form a marquee duo, the depth is really lacking with only Shemar Jean-Charles, Kabion Ento and Kiondre Thomas under contract.

No. 6: Offensive Line

So long as David Bakhtiari finally gets past the ACL injury that ruined his 2021 season, the Packers are in good shape. Valuable veteran guard/center Lucas Patrick will be a free agent, as will veteran right tackle Dennis Kelly, and there’s a chance versatile right tackle Billy Turner will be released to save about $3.36 million against the cap. Even without those three players, the Packers could line up with a quality front of Bakhtiari at left tackle, Jon Runyan at left guard, Josh Myers at center, Royce Newman at right guard and Yosh Nijman at right tackle. Then, when 2020 Pro Bowler Elgton Jenkins returns from his ACL tear, he could be plugged in, really, at any position. Clearly, the Packers would need another tackle if they lose Turner and Kelly.

No. 5: Outside Linebacker

This one is tied to the fate of Za’Darius Smith and Preston Smith. In terms of 2022 cap, Za’Darius Smith ranks fourth among edge rushers ($27.66 million) and Preston Smith ranks 13th ($19.72 million). Getting rid of both players would take care of more than half the team’s cap problems but also leave behind a paper-thin depth chart topped by Rashan Gary and Tipa Galeai/Jonathan Garvin. Chances are, the Packers will release Za’Darius Smith – he’s already scrubbed the Packers from his social-media accounts – and extend Preston Smith. Releasing Za’Darius Smith would save $15.28 million against the cap. Extending Preston Smith could easily cut his cap charge in half. Even with Gary and Preston Smith as the starting duo, the Packers would need more. Galeai and Garvin did next to nothing as the next men up in 2021. If the price is right, the Packers could re-sign veteran Whitney Mercilus.

No. 4: Receiver

So, signs point to Rodgers coming back. Would Rodgers come back without Davante Adams? That seems unlikely. So, let’s pencil in Adams returning on the franchise tag and with an eventual extension. Allen Lazard figures to be back as a restricted free agent, but Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Equanimeous St. Brown are set to be unrestricted free agents and Randall Cobb could be a cap-saving cut. So, the need here is rather large even with the best-case scenario of Adams coming back to “murder” opposing defensive backs for 2022 and beyond. The worst-case scenario looks something like this: Lazard, Juwann Winfree and Malik Taylor at receiver and Amari Rodgers in the slot. Rodgers might instantly retire if that’s the case.

No. 3: Tight End

The bad news is Robert Tonyan’s torn ACL robbed the team of a top weapon for the second half of the season. The good news is the injury likely means a lesser price tag to retain one of Rodgers’ trusted targets. After all, had he come close to replicating his 2020 production (88.1 percent catch rate, zero drops, 11 touchdowns), he might have gotten a big contract in free agency. While he’s under contract for 2022, Marcedes Lewis’ future is a mystery, too. He’s a reliable blocker and beloved leader. He also had a killer fumble against San Francisco, his position coach went to Denver and he will turn 38 in May. Josiah Deguara, a third-round pick in 2020, looks like a good role player but not a front-line performer.

No. 2: Defensive Line

The Packers have a true centerpiece with Kenny Clark. There’s nothing but questions, otherwise. The Packers could release Dean Lowry and save $4.08 million against the cap. Goodness knows they have cap problems and Lowry just isn’t an $8 million player. On the other hand, Tyler Lancaster will be a free agent and Kingsley Keke was released in January. That leaves Clark, TJ Slaton and Jack Heflin as the only other defensive linemen certain to be under contract. Even if Lowry and Lancaster return, the Packers need more up front. Then again, they always need more up front but never add any true contributors.

No. 1: Inside Linebacker

The Packers found an All-Pro in the free-agent bargain bin when they signed De’Vondre Campbell in June. The odds of lightning striking twice is somewhere between slim and none. Campbell was excellent and the Packers obviously would love to have him back. Will they be able to afford him? That depends largely on how he’s viewed by the other 31 teams. Will he be seen as the quality starter who wasn’t worth a significant investment when a free agent in 2020 and 2021? Or will he be seen as one of the best linebackers in the NFL? In other words, will he be viewed as a three-year, $20 million player or a three-year, $30 million player? If they can’t re-sign Campbell, this position immediately becomes the obvious starting point for every mock draft. The Packers just can’t go into a season with Krys Barnes and Ty Summers as the starters.