Green Bay Packers Tough Decisions: Allen Lazard

With the spread of the McVay-Shanahan-LaFleur offense, will a "goon" like Green Bay Packers receiver Allen Lazard be a man in demand as a restricted free agent?

GREEN BAY, Wis. – A key offseason is here for the Green Bay Packers. The decisions that general manager Brian Gutekunst makes in the next five weeks to navigate through a $50 million hole in the salary cap will determine whether the Packers will contend for a Super Bowl in 2022.

This series of stories focuses on the critical decisions that lie ahead. Part 2 focuses on receiver Allen Lazard.

WR Allen Lazard: 2022 Status – Restricted free agent

The NFL is a copycat league, which is evident with the NFL’s offensive revolution.

A huge chunk of the league will be running a Green Bay Packers-style offense in 2022. Eight of the NFL’s 32 head coaches are from the Sean McVay-Kyle Shanahan coaching tree. That includes Green Bay Packers coach Matt LaFleur and the two coaches who will be squaring off in Sunday’s Super Bowl, McVay and the Cincinnati Bengals’ Zac Taylor.

The list of teams that will run the McVay-Shanahan-LaFleur offense keeps growing. Nathaniel Hackett, the Packers’ offensive coordinator the past three seasons, is the new coach of the Broncos. Mike McDaniel, who had been Shanahan’s offensive coordinator in San Francisco, is the new coach of the Dolphins. Rams offensive coordinator Kevin O’Connell is expected to be introduced as the new coach of the Vikings after the Super Bowl.

That list doesn’t include Luke Getsy, the former Packers quarterbacks coach and new Chicago Bears offensive coordinator. The Titans under Mike Vrable and the Jets under Robert Saleh also run that offense.

For teams that are enamored with LaFleur’s version of the offense, they might want a receiver like Lazard. So, why not go out and try to sign Lazard, who is slated to be a restricted free agent?

Lazard is a terrific role player. In the passing game, he caught 40 passes for 513 yards and eight touchdowns. He finished with a flourish. Over the final five games of the regular season, he caught 21 passes for 290 yards and five touchdowns. More than just a receiver, Lazard is ready, willing and able to do the dirty work as a blocker on running plays and screens. The running game was 0.21 yards better per play when he was on the field.

“I like to call him our goon, and he’s an enforcer,” coach Matt LaFleur said this season.

“In the run game, you can really feel his presence,” LaFleur said. “But that also helps create some big-time plays in the passing game when he’s going in and he’s digging out safeties, just like you saw last year in the playoff game vs. the Rams. That was one of the longest plays they had given up all season long. So, he’s got that big-play potential.”

That showed up this season. Lazard caught 5-of-10 passes thrown 20-plus yards downfield, according to Pro Football Focus. By comparison, Marquez Valdes-Scantling 6-of-22 deep targets.

A restricted free agent, Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst will consider two options. The first is the right-of-first-refusal tender of $2.433 million. That tag would allow the Packers to match any offer Lazard would sign. If they were to choose not to match that offer, they would not receive compensation because Lazard was not drafted.

The other option is to give Lazard the second-round tender of $3.986 million. Once again, the Packers could match any offer. If they were to choose not to match that offer, they’d get a second-round pick in return. Chances are that draft compensation would keep away any suitors and ensure Lazard’s return. It also would come with a hefty price considering the Packers’ cap problems.

Last offseason, the Packers used the second-round tender on tight end Robert Tonyan. He did not receive an offer from another team so he stayed with Green Bay. Ultimately, for cap purposes, they agreed to restructure the $3.38 million tender by inserting four void years onto the end of the contract to lessen the immediate cap hit. (He’ll count $469,800 against the cap through 2025 even if he’s not on the roster.) Given the team is staring at a $50 million hole in the 2022 cap, chances are the Packers will use the same approach.

Also In This Series

Got a lengthy series of stories focusing on key offseason personnel decisions coming up. Batting leadoff, what should the Packers do with Cobb, Amos, Turner and Lowry? There's a lot of cap savings in that group.https://t.co/JxXXS0QYLM

— Bill Huber (@BillHuberNFL) February 9, 2022

Grading the Receivers

Davante Adams ($16.78 million cap charge; ranking No. 3 among WRs)

Adams is a face-of-the-franchise type of player. In a perfect world, you want your absolute best players to dominate with production, lead with presence and generally do everything on and off the field the right way. That’s Adams.

Adams set franchise records with 123 receptions for 1,553 yards (12.6 average). Eight of his 11 touchdowns came during the final seven games, when the offense really took off. Everyone in the stadium knew where Aaron Rodgers wanted to fire the football and it usually didn’t matter. Rodgers can make any receiver look good, it’s true, but Adams can make any quarterback look good. When you combine a great quarterback and a great receiver with great chemistry, you get what you saw week after week after week.

According to Pro Football Focus, 91 receivers were targeted at least 49 times. Adams ranked 13th in catch rate, third in yards per route (2.92), 18th in drop rate (four drops; 3.1 percent) and 15th in passer rating (114.5). Adams wanted to be more of a force after the catch, so he forced 13 missed tackles compared to only four in 2020 and 15 the previous three seasons combined. He also tied for fifth with 12 receptions on passes thrown 20-plus yards downfield.

Adams is scheduled to be a free agent. If he hits the market, he’ll be the No. 1 available player. Arizona’s De’Andre Hopkins is the highest paid receiver with an average salary of $27.25 million. It’s an outlier contract. Tennessee’s Julio Jones is a distant second with a $22 million average, and only Hopkins, Jones, the Chargers’ Keenan Allen and Dallas’ Amari Cooper average $20 million per season. Moreover, Adams will turn 30 on Christmas Eve. Still, it is the priceless connection between Rodgers and the indomitable Adams that makes the offense go.

Grade: A-plus.

Randall Cobb ($2.69 million cap charge; ranking No. 57 among WRs)

Cobb was brought back at the urging of Aaron Rodgers. He caught 28-of-39 targets (71.8 percent) for 375 yards (13.4 average) and five touchdowns.

In the grand scheme of things, he wasn’t worth the money – and certainly won’t be worth the money next year, when his cap number soars to $9.5 million. But he did deliver when needed and showed he can still play. He had two-touchdown games against Pittsburgh and Arizona, and he was a huge part of the offense in a key win over the Rams before suffering a core-muscle injury that sidelined him for the final six games. He was as fired up as anyone at Lambeau Field when he returned for the playoff game, then inexplicably wasn’t targeted by Rodgers until the final minutes.

Cobb had zero drops, trailed only Adams in yards per pass route (1.49) and had the best passer rating when targeted (144.2). He’ll turn 32 during training camp. The Packers can save almost $6.75 million by moving on and giving Amari Rodgers a shot in the slot.

Grade: C.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($2.24 million cap charge; ranking No. 66 among WRs)

As a fifth-round pick in 2018 who hit certain playing-time requirements, Valdes-Scantling got a nice bump in salary (to $2.183 million) as part of the NFL’s proven-performance escalator. After leading the NFL with a 20.9-yard average in 2020 and a big-time training camp this summer, expectations were high entering the season. Limited to 11 games (seven starts) by injuries, he caught 26-of-55 passes (47.3 percent) for 430 yards (16.5 average) and three touchdowns. According to PFF, he had zero drops but also didn’t break any tackles.

With elite size and speed, Valdes-Scantling’s niche is as a deep threat. On passes thrown 20-plus yards downfield, he caught only 6-of-22 (27.3 percent) with one touchdown this season compared to 9-of-30 (30.0 percent) and five touchdowns last season, according to PFF. Aaron Rodgers never quite got dialed in to MVS’s game-breaking speed.

Valdes-Scantling faces an interesting free agency. He is a proven deep threat. He cut his drops from seven to zero. And, until missing six games this season (plus the playoff game), he had never missed a game in his career. But it’s a what-have-you-done-for-me-lately league. Finishing 83rd among receivers in yards isn't the ideal way in which to hit the open market.

Grade: C-minus.

Amari Rodgers ($890,891 cap charge; ranking No. 127 among WRs)

A third-round pick out of Clemson, Rodgers came with some impressive credentials. He was ultra-productive at a national powerhouse, Clemson. His father is Tee Martin, the Tennessee football legend and Ravens receivers coach. He was mentored as a kid by Cobb. His rookie season, though, was not very good.

On offense, he was shoved to the back burner because of the return of Cobb. He caught 4-of-8 passes for 45 yards (11.3 average) with zero touchdowns and one drop. On special teams, he averaged 8.3 yards per punt return and 18.1 yards per kickoff return. On punt returns, simply catching the ball was an adventure at times, though he got better in that phase at the end of the season and wound up with seven returns of 15-plus yards. A make-or-break offseason could await.

Grade: D-minus.

Allen Lazard ($850,000 cap charge; ranking No. 138 among WRs)

Lazard is coming off the best season of his career. He caught 40-of-60 passes (66.7 percent) for 513 yards (12.8 average) and eight touchdowns. The catches, yards and touchdowns all set career highs. He finished the season with a flourish. In the first 11 games, he had only one game of more than three catches. In the final six games, he had five-plus receptions for 70-plus yards three times. His five touchdown catches over the final five games were surpassed league-wide only by Adams.

Lazard is renowned for doing the dirty work. Defenders are so wary of his blocking that they can get blown by in the deep game. He caught 5-of-10 passes thrown 20-plus yards downfield, according to PFF. That was only one less reception than Valdes-Scantling while getting a dozen fewer deep targets. He did have three drops, giving him a drop rate of 7.0 percent that was the worst among the Big 4 receivers but not all that far off the league median of 5.4 percent.

Lazard will be a restricted free agent. He’s been good enough that he could attract interest from other teams. To limit that interest, the Packers could give him the second-round tender, which will be worth almost $4 million. That’s a big chunk of change given the team’s cap problems. The team could do what it did with tight end Robert Tonyan last year, when it gave him that second-round tender, then restructured it with void years to provide cap relief.

Grade: B-plus.

Malik Taylor ($780,000 cap charge; ranking No. 164 among WRs)

Taylor caught two passes for 14 yards at the end of the 38-3 loss to New Orleans in Week 1. He never saw the ball the rest of the season on offense. Heck, he barely saw the field the rest of the season. In 10 games, he played 32 snaps on offense – 15 in Week 1 and never more than five thereafter. About his only noteworthy play was fumbling a kickoff out of bounds at the 5 in Week 14 against Chicago.

Grade: F.

Equanimeous St. Brown ($613,889 cap charge; ranking No. 191 among WRs)

A sixth-round pick in 2018, St. Brown failed to make the roster but wound up playing in 13 games. He caught 9-of-17 passes (52.9 percent) for 98 yards and finished third on the team with seven tackles on special teams. Aaron Rodgers praised St. Brown for his attitude and performance throughout the season but it wasn’t enough to get the ball thrown his direction. He finished last on the team with 0.66 yards per pass route, according to PFF. With that, St. Brown will join a few of his teammates in free agency. On one hand, the Packers might want him back for some stability. On the other hand, he might want a fresh start after not getting many chances following a rookie season of 21 receptions.

Grade: C-minus.

Juwann Winfree ($173,333 cap charge; ranking No. 252 among WRs)

A sixth-round pick by Denver in 2019, Winfree turned heads with a string of excellent practices while the veterans stayed away from the offseason workouts. He caught the first eight passes of his career, which he turned into 58 yards, but fumbled twice. Those were the only fumbles by a Packers receiver on offense the entire season. He also had one of the nine drops charged to Green Bay’s receivers.

Grade: F.