Have Injuries Really Been a Pain to Packers?

Why are the Green Bay Packers struggling with a 3-5 record? Injuries are one reason. But are they a big reason? Here’s the data.

Why are the Green Bay Packers struggling with a 3-5 record. Injuries are one reason. But are they a big reason? Here’s the data.

GREEN BAY, Wis. – Before the Green Bay Packers’ Week 7 game at Washington, left tackle David Bakhtiari went through a pregame workout but didn’t play. Before last week’s game at Buffalo, left guard Elgton Jenkins went through a pregame workout but didn’t play. Then, on his sixth snap after a two-game absence, receiver Christian Watson exited with a concussion.

“Yeah, it’s just one of those deals, man,” coach Matt LaFleur said on Monday, a touch of exasperation in his voice.

Injuries have been part of the story this season. The Packers enter Sunday’s game at the Detroit Lions with a 3-5 record. Along with shoulder pads and ice packs, they’ll be packing a four-game losing streak. Speaking at his locker on Wednesday, quarterback Aaron Rodgers pointed to injuries several times.

“I do feel like we need to get healthy,” he said. “When we’re at our full strength, which we really haven’t been this season, whether it’s been Dave not playing early in the season, Elgton not playing early in the season, we haven’t really had the 11 we thought like we were going to play with for an extended time. When we get those guys, I feel like we have the team to get the job done.”

In one way, Rodgers is right. Injuries have been a significant factor. In another way, he’s wrong. The Packers actually have been one of the heathiest teams in the NFL.

First, Rodgers’ perspective.

Bakhtiari, the former All-Pro, has started five games and played 51.0 percent of the offensive snaps. Jenkins, the former Pro Bowler, has started six games and played 75.6 percent of the snaps.

A couple weeks ago, the Packers were prepared to roll out a new offensive line that featured Bakhtiari at left tackle, Jenkins at left guard, Josh Myers at center, Jon Runyan at right guard and Yosh Nijman at right tackle. With the surprise inactive status of Bakhtiari and Jenkins, they still haven’t used that line in a game. Bakhtiari and Jenkins are two of the best in the business. They were replaced the last two weeks by rookie Zach Tom.

At receiver, the main five-man quintet of Allen Lazard, Randall Cobb, Sammy Watkins and rookies Watson and Romeo Doubs was on the field together for only the Week 2 game against Chicago. Lazard has missed two games, Watson has missed three, Watkins spent four games on injured reserve and Cobb will miss at least two more games while on injured reserve.

Without Jenkins, Lazard, Cobb and Watson against Buffalo, the Packers walked into Sunday night’s shootout at the powerhouse Buffalo Bills with a Nerf gun. Bills quarterback Josh Allen had his primary receivers, Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis. The only two receivers with whom Rodgers has real chemistry, Lazard and Cobb, were inactive.

“We’ve got to get our guys healthy,” Rodgers said. “When we have our starting five out there out front, I feel like we have the guys in place to be able to block it up and take some shots downfield.”

However, the reality is the Packers haven’t been especially injured. Man Games Lost is a subscription site that tracks injuries in the NFL and other major professional sports. Green Bay players have missed only 49 games due to injuries, fourth-fewest in the NFL. Its relative health has been obvious on the weekly inactives list. Generally, there have been more healthy players listed as inactive than injured players.

Sometimes, it’s not the volume of players that are injured but the quality of those players. Even there, the Packers haven’t been especially afflicted. By Lost-av, a metric that measures the 2021 quality of players, the Packers have been the eighth-healthiest. By Lost-wav, which measures the career quality of those players, the Packers have been the ninth-healthiest.

Life is good in comparison to last year, when only Baltimore was more impacted than Green Bay by injuries based on lost-av.

What’s the disconnect between Rodgers and the data? Easy. While the offense has been hit by injuries, the starting defense has been relatively unscathed. Only former All-Pro cornerback Jaire Alexander, who missed most of the Week 3 game against Tampa Bay and was out the following week against New England, has missed a game due to injury. Linebacker De’Vondre Campbell’s knee injury could double the number of games lost by starters to two.

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