Here’s What Computer Models Say About Packers’ Playoff Chances

With two games remaining, the Green Bay Packers need to win out and get some help to capture one of the final NFC wild-card spots.

GREEN BAY, Wis. – To punch their ticket to the NFC playoffs, the Green Bay Packers need to win their final two games and get a little help.

Given the play of their defense, winning at the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday night and knocking off the surging Chicago Bears at home in the finale will be difficult enough for the Packers (7-8).

Plus, the Packers will need a little help. The Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks are 8-7 and in sixth and seventh place, respectively, in the NFC.

The Rams will play at the Giants (5-10) on Sunday and the 49ers (11-4) in the finale. That San Francisco leads the chase for the No. 1 seed in the NFC by tiebreakers could work to Green Bay’s advantage.

The Seahawks will host the Steelers (8-7) on Sunday and visit the Cardinals (3-12) in Week 17.

Here’s what the latest computer models say about Green Bay’s playoff chances.

DraftKings Sportsbook: Green Bay’s playoff odds are +190. By implied probability, that means it has a 35.5 percent chance of reaching the playoffs. That’s far better than any of the computer models, but the Seahawks are -330 (76.7 percent) and the Rams are -245 (71.0 percent).

New York Times: 29 percent chance to make the playoffs. The Times’ model is interesting because you can plug in different combinations of wins and losses. If the Packers can beat the Vikings, that would increase to 59 percent. If the Packers can follow that with a victory in the finale over the Bears, that would improve to 95 percent.

Pro Football Focus: 29 percent to make the playoffs. By its modeling, it ranks 17th in remaining strength of schedule (compared to 24th in strength of schedule for the first 15 games). In the race for the final two playoff spots in the NFC, the Seahawks (70 percent) and Rams (66 percent) are huge favorites over Green Bay. The Seahawks remaining strength of schedule is 30th.

Playoff Status: 29 percent to make the playoffs. Interestingly, that is broken down to 13 percent for the sixth seed and 16 percent for the seventh seed. For the final spots, the Seahawks are 74 percent, the Rams are 59 percent and the Vikings are 28 percent.

ESPN’s Power Football Index: 28.4 percent to make the playoffs. From there, they have a 7.2 percent chance of advancing to the divisional round. Just like everywhere else, the Rams (75.1 percent) and Seahawks (71.8 percent) are the strong favorites to claim the final spots.

The Athletic: 27.8 percent to make the playoffs. Ranking 21st in remaining strength of schedule, with games against the Vikings and Bears, gives them a chance to overcome their 10th-place standing in the NFC.

However, the Rams (68.4 percent) and Seahawks (67.3 percent) are the heavy favorites to earn the final two spots in the NFC. By percentage chance, Green Bay is eighth and Minnesota is ninth.

NFL.com: 26 percent to make the playoffs. That would move to 56 percent with a win over the Vikings. The Seahawks have a 70 percent chance to make the playoffs (40 percent if they lose to the Steelers on Sunday) and the Rams have a 64 percent chance of reaching the postseason (25 percent if they lose to the Giants).

Power Rankings Guru: 24.6 percent to make the playoffs. They rank 18th in remaining strength of schedule.

Number Fire: 22.5 percent to make the playoffs. Like everywhere else, that lags well behind the Rams (72.0 percent) and Seahawks (66.8 percent). Green Bay has a 0.1 percent chance of winning the Super Bowl.

Team Rankings: 21.6 percent to make the playoffs. Seattle is 68.4 percent and Los Angeles is 64.7 percent to claim the final wild-card spots.

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