Lions, Packers Atop Way-Too-Early NFC North Odds

The Packers don’t hang “banners for division championships,” GM Brian Gutekunst said at the Scouting Combine, but here are the odds with free agency and the draft on the horizon.

GREEN BAY, Wis. – The Detroit Lions ran away with the NFC North for their first division championship since 1993. They are favored to repeat, but the Green Bay Packers are on their heels in the way-too-early odds.

According to FanDuel Sportsbook, the Lions are +145 to win the NFC North. The Packers aren’t far behind at +230. The Minnesota Vikings and Chicago Bears, both of whom have quarterback questions, are further back at +420 and +440, respectively.

By implied probability, the Lions have a 40.8 percent to win the division and the Packers are at 30.3 percent.

The Lions finished with a 12-5 record in 2023, three games better than runner-up Green Bay. Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst isn’t worried about the standings, though.

“We’ve never hung banners for division championships, so it’s never been about that. It’s a nice starting point but I think we’re always looking for bigger things,” he said at the Scouting Combine.

One thing that should help the Packers gain ground is owning five picks in the first three rounds of the draft, with two apiece in the second and third rounds. If Gutekunst can replicate last year’s success, when he snared Jayden Reed, Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft with those Day 2 picks, he’ll be able to plug many of the remaining holes on the roster.

On the other hand, the Lions have a lot more money to make moves in free agency. According to updated figures from OverTheCap.com, the Packers are about $14.2 million under the cap. They’re in a much better position than last year, but that’s still well behind the Lions’ $52.5 million. With that additional $38 million, the Lions can sign at least three more impact payers than the Packers.

Both teams will enter 2024 with familiar faces on their rosters. The Packers really don’t have any free agents they believe they must re-sign. However, while Green Bay has a new defensive coordinator with Jeff Hafley replacing Joe Barry, the Lions’ trio of offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn and special teams coordinator Dave Fipp are back.

“The continuity of the staff, the core of the staff, is no different than the core of the players who have been together now since 2021,” Lions coach Dan Campbell said at the Combine. “To me, that’s very important to have. This is the second year in a row I didn’t think I’d have them back between (Johnson) and AG and some of the other coaches. We’re fortunate.

“There’s so many things … you can skip over these steps that have already been done for a three-year period. You’re just so much more efficient and much better. And it happens with the players, too. They know what we expect. You’re out of 101; we’re in the 401.”

The only banner Gutekunst cares about is winning a 14th NFL championship. For the Super Bowl, the Packers opened at +2500 but have moved to +2200. The Lions are +1300, tied with Dallas for the fifth-shortest odds.

For all the favorites, they are set at quarterback. The Packers are bullish on Jordan Love, for obvious reasons, and the Lions believe Jared Goff can get them over the hump after losing to the 49ers in the NFC Championship Game.

“I’ve seen a quarterback who’s gotten better and better and better and has grown every year, and I would say who’s gotten better under pressure every year and really (has) just risen to the challenge,” Campbell said. “And he’s more and more confident, he’s more comfortable.

“I’ve said this before: To me, Jared Goff is a winning quarterback. You can win in this league with that guy, and you can’t say that for a lot of guys. So, I’m glad that he’s here. I’m glad he’s ours.”

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