NFC Championship Keys to the Game

Can the Packers handle George Kittle? Can the 49ers stop Davante Adams? Who will protect the quarterback? And who can get their run game going?

GREEN BAY, Wis. – Can the Green Bay Packers handle tight end George Kittle? Can the San Francisco 49ers protect Jimmy Garoppolo? Here are three keys for Sunday’s NFC Championship Game.

Running games

For both teams, the game plans will start with the run. Offensively, San Francisco’s running game sucked the life out of Minnesota’s powerful defense in last week’s divisional game. The 49ers averaged just 4.0 yards per carry but it was the repetitiveness and consistency of it. They ran the ball 47 times and had just two runs of 10-plus yards (10 and 11 yards) but no negative runs. By game’s end, all of those 3-yard runs became runs of 4 and 5 and 6 runs. Moreover, a successful running game creates opportunities in the play-action attack. According to Pro Football Focus, Garoppolo finished second in the league in play-action yards.

“The Niners are one of the best at marrying up their runs to their play passes, where there are some other teams that will fake a run that doesn’t exist,” Packers defensive coordinator Mike Pettine said. “Where I think (the 49ers) do a really good job each week of, these are our runs and these are the passes off of it. Their offense is all about fooling your eyes, and that’s why they operate at such a high level. You have to be so disciplined with what’s my key, what am I looking at. All the other stuff that’s flying around your key, you have to make sure you stay locked in.”

If the 49ers can replicate that against the Packers, they’ll take the starch out of a Packers pass rush that not only produces a lot of pressure but puts the defensive backs in position to make plays. Garoppolo is incredibly efficient, ranking fifth in completion percentage, eighth in passer rating and second in third-and-long success, but he had the highest interception rate of any quarterback in the playoff field. If the Packers can create enough third-and-longs and generate their typically strong pass rush, they’ll have a chance to produce the type of game-turning plays necessary to pull off the upset.

For Green Bay’s offense, its success will be tied almost exclusively to running back Aaron Jones. In the Week 12 game, Jones was limited to 2.9 yards per carry and wasn’t targeted in the passing game. With Green Bay facing third-and-long for much of the night – 11 plays of third-and-8 or longer – San Francisco’s pass rush dominated to such an extent that the Packers didn’t convert a third down for the first 59 minutes. Last week, the Vikings ran 10 times for 21 yards, resulting in Kirk Cousins being sacked six times and the Vikings going 2-of-12 on third down.

No. 1 targets

For Green Bay, its passing game flows through receiver Davante Adams, who is far and away the team’s best threat. Even while missing four games with turf toe, he was targeted more than the next two Packers combined. Adams tore the Seahawks to shreds in last week’s divisional game with eight catches for 160 yards and two touchdowns. But he was a nonfactor in the first matchup vs. San Francisco. While he was targeted 12 times, he caught seven passes for just 43 yards. That’s nothing new; the 49ers gave up a league-low 55 receiving yards per game to No. 1 receivers this season.

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“He’s very strong, he’s a very good route runner, he’s got great hands,” 49ers defensive coordinator Robert Saleh said. “He's got a salty to him where he's really good in double moves. He just kind of lulls you to sleep. But, he's savvy, and him and Aaron have a really good relationship. They've got a good rapport with one another, so they're very comfortable. They know where each other is going to be. Just the whole combination of the routes they have for him and all the different things they ask him to do, it's a good match.”

San Francisco’s passing attack is much more diversified but tight end George Kittle is the man who makes it go. Even while missing two games, he caught 85 passes for 1,053 yards and five touchdowns. He is dominant. According to PFF, of 27 tight ends who were targeted at least 50 times, Kittle ranked third in catch percentage (80.2), first in yards after the catch (621), second in YAC per catch (7.3), and first in missed tackles (20) and drops (one). In the first game, he caught a 61-yard touchdown to highlight his six catches for 129 yards.

“What’s so impressive about George is he doesn’t only do it in the pass game,” Packers coach Matt LaFleur said. “He is so efficient in the run game. I think he’s the most complete tight end in the National Football League.”

For Green Bay, that miserable performance capped a miserable five-game stretch in which the opponents’ No. 1 tight ends combined for 500 receiving yards. Green Bay’s defense played much better against tight ends down the stretch – a combined seven catches for 48 yards in the final four regular-season games and five catches for 47 yards against Seattle – though it’s fair to wonder if that’s real improvement or the byproduct of playing lesser tight ends.

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The edges

Both teams have dominant pass rushes. For Green Bay, it’s the outside linebacker tandem of Za’Darius Smith and Preston Smith. Za’Darius Smith finished sixth in the league with 13.5 sacks, tied for first in the league with 37 quarterback hits (league stats) and first in the league with 93 pressures (Pro Football Focus). Preston Smith finished eighth in the league with 12 sacks, making Green Bay the only team with two of the league’s top eight. They each had two sacks last week against Seattle. In Week 12, Za’Darius Smith had 1.5 sacks and Preston Smith had a half sack. Veteran left tackle Joe Staley missed that game due to injury, which could change the dynamic. Pressure’s a must for the Packers; Garoppolo ranked fourth in the league in under-pressure completion percentage (54.4) but tied for 23rd with five interceptions.

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For San Francisco, its pass rush is rooted in a fearsome front that includes five first-round picks. Off the edges, Arik Armstead had 10 sacks, Nick Bosa 9.5 (sixth with 80 pressures, according to PFF) and Dee Ford 6.5 in 11 games after a prodigious season last year for Kansas City. In Week 12, Armstead had two sacks and Bosa had one. It was a jail break after Green Bay lost right tackle Bryan Bulaga with a finger injury in the first quarter. Rodgers had a miserable night in all ways but especially under pressure. In 14 under-pressure dropbacks, he completed three passes and was sacked five times, according to PFF. As is the case with Staley, Bulaga’s return could change the dynamic.

“He’s a good player,” said left tackle David Bakhtiari, who figures to see the most of Bosa. “He’s extremely athletic, he’s powerful and I think he’s a hell of a talent. I think he’s got a very bright future in this league. I think he’s earned every accolade that he’s been given. It’s going to be a fun test. I’ve been around the league for a while now. I kind of have to say I’m getting older, even though I’m only 28. He’s a young, first-year guy. It’s going to be fun, for sure.”

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