NFC North Predicted Finishes, Strengths, Weaknesses

With Matt LaFleur and Aaron Rodgers, the Green Bay Packers have dominated the NFC North. Will that trend continue?

GREEN BAY, Wis. – Green Bay Packers coach Matt LaFleur is the king of the North. In his three seasons at the helm, he has led the team to three NFC North championships. His 15-3 record against the NFC North (or the old NFC Central) is the best of all-time, his .833 winning percentage far distant of Bears legend Mike Ditka (58-25; .699).

Green Bay’s reign dates further than LaFleur. Since realignment in 2002, there have been 20 NFC North champions. Green Bay has won 12.

A big part of Green Bay’s success has been Aaron Rodgers. The last two seasons, he’s thrown 38 touchdown passes and zero interceptions against division foes. Of the top six single-season passer ratings against division teams in NFL history, Rodgers owns four spots – including his record 137.5 last season.

At some point, the tide will turn. Perhaps not this year, though, with Green Bay being the established power and everybody else retooling. At FanDuel Sportsbook, the Packers are -155 to win the division. Those odds are far shorter than the Minnesota Vikings (+240), Detroit Lions (+950) and Chicago Bears (+1200). At SI Sportsbook, Green Bay is +1000 to win the Super Bowl, the fourth-shortest odds. Everybody else is in the second half, with Minnesota +3300, Detroit +8000 and Chicago +10000.

Looking ahead, our NFC North insiders – Bill Huber of Packer Central, Will Ragatz of Inside the Vikings, Gene Chamberlain of Bear Digest and John Maakaron of All Lions – get you ready for the 2022 NFL season with predicted finishes for each of the division teams along with their strengths and weaknesses.

1. Green Bay Packers. Projected Wins: 12.0

Biggest Strength

Rashan Gary (USA Today Sports Images)

For years, we could start and end with Aaron Rodgers. The four-time MVP, including each of the last two seasons, is one of the great quarterbacks in NFL history. But the defense is where there’s true power. It is a unit without a weakness in the starting lineup. The defensive line is so good that first-round pick Devonte Wyatt might not see the field. Rashan Gary is a star at outside linebacker. All-Pro De’Vondre Campbell and first-round pick Quay Walker will provide elite play at inside linebacker. There’s no better cornerback corps than Jaire Alexander, Eric Stokes and Rasul Douglas. The safety tandem of Adrian Amos and Darnell Savage is strong, too. If they can stop the run, good luck moving the chains on third-and-long.

Biggest Question

David Bakhtiari (USA Today Sports Images)

Three letters: ACL. Five-time All-Pro left tackle David Bakhtiari suffered a torn ACL at practice on Dec. 31, 2020. He missed almost all of 2021 and has practiced only a few times in 2022. If he can return to anywhere close to his vintage form following three surgeries, the Packers will be thrilled. Elgton Jenkins, a Pro Bowl guard in 2020, capably replaced Bakhtiari last year until suffering his own ACL. He’s penciled in at right tackle. With Bakhtiari and Jenkins, the offensive line will give Aaron Rodgers the time to survey a suspect receiver corps led by veterans Allen Lazard, Sammy Watkins and Randall Cobb. If they’re not healthy? The makeshift line, which included Yosh Nijman at left tackle and Royce Newman at right tackle, struggled in preseason action.

2. Minnesota Vikings. Projected wins: 8.75.

Biggest strength

Justin Jefferson (USA Today Sports Images)

The Vikings’ skill-position talent can go toe to toe with that of any team in the league. Justin Jefferson enters his third season hoping to stake his claim as the best wide receiver in the NFL, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him approach 2021 Cooper Kupp numbers in coach Kevin O’Connell’s offense. Dalvin Cook is still a Tier 1 running back whenever he’s healthy. Adam Thielen is dynamite in the red zone, K.J. Osborn is emerging as a valuable No. 3, and Irv Smith Jr. is a breakout candidate at tight end after missing all of last year. Then there are depth players like Alexander Mattison, Ty Chandler and Jalen Reagor to round out the attack. O’Connell has all kinds of weapons at his disposal.

Biggest question

Chandon Sullivan (USA Today Sports Images)

Will the secondary be good enough? The NFL is a passing-dominated league. Much of the Vikings’ success will come down to how well Kirk Cousins plays, but Cousins is established as an above-average quarterback, and he should thrive in this offense with O’Connell and Jefferson and so many other dangerous targets. Minnesota’s season may hinge on its ability to stop the pass on the other side of the ball. Patrick Peterson, Cameron Dantzler and Chandon Sullivan is a largely uninspiring cornerback group, which could be an issue. Safety should be a solid group with Harrison Smith, Cam Bynum and Lewis Cine, but the corners have plenty to prove. If that unit doesn’t step up, the talent on the Vikings’ front seven will only mean so much.

3. Detroit Lions. Projected wins: 6.75.

Biggest Strength

Jamaal Williams (USA Today Sports Images)

The Lions should be able to run the football better in 2022 thanks to their offensive line, which includes three first-round picks (left guard Taylor Decker, center Frank Ragnow and right tackle Penei Sewell) and a Pro Bowler (right guard Jonah Jackson). The unit has the potential to propel Detroit’s offense into the top-10 in several statistical categories. The front office has contributed significant financial resources to the offensive side of the football, so they must deliver. Expect the running back tandem of D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams to be used in the passing game, too. Quarterback Jared Goff should be able to keep defenses off-balance with the play-action pass, which could open up the downfield passing game to free-agent addition to D.J. Chark and rookie Jameson Williams (when healthy).

Biggest Question

Jeff Okudah (USA Today Sports Images)

Bolstered by first-round pick Aidan Hutchinson, this group is very young and will be counting on second-year players to help shoulder the load. Alim McNeill should become more of a force along the interior of the defensive line. Linebacker Derrick Barnes has all the tools physically to play the position well, though reading plays and recognizing his coverage/gap responsibility is evolving. The biggest question mark will be whether cornerback Jeff Okudah stay healthy and contribute at a high level. He is returning from an Achilles tear and had a decent preseason. The No. 3 overall pick in 2020, Okudah has played in only 10 career games and intercepted only one pass. Okudah and Amani Oruwariye have the potential to form a quality cornerback tandem.

4. Chicago Bears. Projected Wins: 5.75

Biggest Strength

Robert Quinn (USA Today Sports Images)

The Bears can still rush the passer and present a formidable defensive front. They went 6-11 with 49 sacks last year and completely gutted the defensive line because of their new system, yet come away now with this being the team’s greatest asset. Robert Quinn and Trevis Gipson combined on 25 1/2 sacks, and former Colts end Al-Quadin Muhammad is the third edge rusher and coming off a six-sack season. Justin Jones showed enough burst as a three-technique in preseason to indicate he can be the inside attacker this scheme requires, and signing former Vikings tackle Armon Watts on waivers after a five-sack season fortified their interior depth. One of the big worries was they had gone too small to find one-gap attackers, but they retained Angelo Blackson, signed Mike Pennel and added Watts to address possible run-stopping issues.

Biggest Question

Lucas Patrick (USA Today Sports Images)

While everyone will point at their receivers and the rash of injuries running through that sketchy group, the offensive line is easily their greater concern. They brought in former Packers lineman Lucas Patrick at center and he hasn’t been at a single practice since July due to a broken thumb. Teven Jenkins has never been a guard after some would suggest he was barely a tackle. The left tackle is Braxton Jones, a Day 3 rookie from Southern Utah. Even right tackle Larry Borom can’t be called a solid performer after only eight NFL starts. They hope their running game and play-action passing keep opponents from gearing up to rush for Justin Fields, yet they may not even be able to run block with that line let alone pass block. Fields’ biggest asset will be his mobility, even if he has improved as a passer.