Five Days Until Kickoff: Five Packers-Buccaneers Keys

The Green Bay Packers will host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the NFC Championship Game on Sunday. Here's the recipe for reversing what happened in Week 6.

GREEN BAY, Wis. – It will be Aaron Rodgers vs. Tom Brady with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line when the Green Bay Packers host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday.

This will be Brady’s 14th conference championship game. He’s won six Super Bowls and is No. 1 all-time in touchdown passes. The phrase “Greatest of All-Time” has been rendered meaningless because it’s tossed around so frequently. But Brady is the unquestioned GOAT.

Rodgers’ lone Super Bowl win came in 2010. Brady’s played in five Super Bowls, winning three, since Rodgers’ triumphant night in suburban Dallas.

Rodgers knows the reality. The team didn’t draft Jordan Love to collect seven-figures paychecks for running the scout team. Due to COVID’s impact on the salary cap, the team probably can’t afford to re-sign All-Pro center Corey Linsley and Pro Bowl running back Aaron Jones. A great quarterback always has a chance to win a championship but this might be Rodgers’ last chance to win a Super Bowl for the Packers.

That’s an immense amount of pressure. How Rodgers handles the internal pressure will be just as important as how he handles the pressure from the Bucs’ defense.

2. Fine Line

In the first matchup, Tampa Bay’s defensive front ran roughshod over the Packers. After allowing a total of three sacks in the first four games, Green Bay yielded five. After averaging 150.8 rushing yards per game to start the season, the running game was met with a brick wall of Buccaneers. If not for Jamaal Williams’ 25-yard run early in the game and AJ Dillon’s 20-yard run late in the game, the Packers would have averaged just 2.6 yards per carry. To add injury to insult, All-Pro left tackle David Bakhtiari suffered broken ribs.

Bakhtiari’s out following a torn ACL but the line has continued a run of strong performances. Against Los Angeles’ top-ranked defense, Green Bay averaged 5.8 yards per carry before taking a knee to end the game and Rodgers was hit just once on 36 dropbacks. The game might be won or lost right here, because the Bucs' defensive line and linebackers are excellent.

3. Who Will Get Open?

It was an all-around bad day for Green Bay’s offense in Week 6. The protection was bad, the running game was ineffective and receivers weren’t getting open. The Saints had the same trouble on Sunday. Prolific Michael Thomas, who set an NFL record with 149 receptions last season, had zero catches on four targets.

According to Zebra Sports, which powers the league’s Next Gen Stats, here’s what the Bucs’ corners did against the Saints.

▪ Jamal Dean: two receptions allowed for 15 yards on five targets.

▪ Sean Murphy-Bunting: three receptions allowed for 7 yards and one interception on five targets.

▪ Carlton Davis: one reception allowed for 16 yards on four targets.

If the Green Bay passing attack can’t do better than that on Sunday, its season will come to a disappointing end.

4. Taking Away Brady’s Bombs

Brady was first in the NFL with 36 completions and second with 1,233 yards and 11 touchdowns on passes thrown 20-plus yards downfield, according to Pro Football Focus. Brady continually pushed the ball downfield in his first season with the Buccaneers. With Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown at receiver, Brady averaged 9.08 air yards per attempt – tops in the league, according to the league’s official stats.

Green Bay’s pass defense, led by cornerback Jaire Alexander, has been superb at limiting big plays. Last week, Rams quarterback Jared Goff didn’t throw a single pass 20-plus yards downfield. In Week 17, Chicago’s Mitchell Trubisky was 2-of-4 for 76 yards but intercepted once. Tennessee’s Ryan Tannehill didn’t attempt any deep passes. Carolina’s Teddy Bridgewater was 1-of-3 for 37 yards. Detroit’s Matthew Stafford was 1-of-3 for 21 yards. That’s four deep completions over the past five games. That’s winning defense.

Green Bay hasn’t allowed a deep touchdown since Jalen Hurts came off the bench for the Eagles in Week 13.

5. Two-Headed Monster

Tampa Bay has an excellent one-two punch in the backfield with Ronald Jones and Leonard Fournette. They both had strong games against a New Orleans run defense that ranked fourth in yards allowed per carry. Jones, who rushed for 978 yards and averaged 5.1 yards per carry in 14 games, carried 13 times for 62 yards (4.8 average). Fournette, who had 1,000-yard seasons with Jacksonville in 2017 and 2019, carried 17 times for 63 yards (3.7 average). The 228-pound Fournette seems like an especially strong option on a cold day at Lambeau Field.

Green Bay’s run defense had been trending the right way but gave up 90 yards on 18 carries (5.0 average) by the Rams’ Cam Akers. If the Packers can slow Tampa Bay’s running game, it can perhaps limit the Bucs’ play-action attack. Brady ranked third in the NFL with a play-action passer rating of 124.4 and second with 10.2 yards per play-action attempt.