NFL Draft Littered with First-Round Drops at Receiver

The last decade of NFL drafts shows that for every Justin Jefferson there's an A.J. Jenkins.

GREEN BAY, Wis. – The Green Bay Packers need an instant-impact receiver. Their two picks in the first round offer the best opportunity to get that critical mission accomplished.

Still, even in what’s considered a strong class of receiver prospects, history shows that finding the right player to replace All-Pro Davante Adams will be a lot easier said than done.

To be sure, the rookie success of Ja’Mar Chase and Justin Jefferson show that it’s possible.

“Those guys are freaks,” coach Matt LaFleur said this week at the NFL Spring Meetings.

Of course, Chase was the fourth pick of the 2021 draft, so his immediate success isn’t relevant to the conversation.

Over the last decade’s worth of drafts, from 2012 through 2021, a total of 21 receivers were selected between No. 18 (four picks before Green Bay’s spot at No. 22) and No. 32 (four picks after Green Bay’s spot at No. 28).

Of that group, only two receivers finished their rookie season with 1,000-plus yards. One was Jefferson, the 22nd pick of the 2020 draft by Minnesota who dominated his rookie campaign with 88 receptions for 1,400 yards in seven scores. The other was Kelvin Benjamin, the No. 28 pick of the 2014 draft by Carolina who turned 73 receptions into 1,008 yards and nine scores.

Calvin Ridley (No. 26 by Atlanta in 2018) and DeAndre Hopkins (No. 27 by Houston in 2013) also topped 800 yards as rookies.

Contrast that to four big-time draft duds, whose woeful rookie seasons foreshadowed failed careers.

A.J. Jenkins, the 30th pick of the 2012 draft by San Francisco, was a healthy scratch for most of his rookie season and dropped his only target. Laquon Treadwell, the 23rd pick of the 2016 draft by Minnesota, caught one pass in nine games. Josh Doctson, the 22nd pick of the 2016 draft by Washington, missed most of his rookie season due to an Achilles injury and caught only two passes. N’Keal Harry, the 32nd pick of the 2019 season by New England, missed the first half of the season with an ankle injury and caught only 12 passes.

The Year 1 success of Chase and Jefferson perhaps has created unrealistic expectations that the Packers can replace at least a sizable portion of Adams’ production with a rookie.

“No, I don’t think it’s easier to find” an impact rookie, LaFleur said. “If you look at the history of that position, there’s a lot of mistakes that are made within the draft. Shoot, if you look traditionally at the Green Bay Packers, we’ve had a lot of success with second-round picks from that room and guys that were picked later in the draft. There’s only a few Ja’Marr Chases in the world. I do think we have seen in the last couple years guys being able to transition and make an impact earlier in their career than ever before.”

That is true. In the five drafts from 2012 through 2016, 12 receivers were selected between No. 18 and No. 32. They averaged 34.3 receptions. In the five drafts from 2017 through 2021, nine receivers were selected in that range. They averaged 49.0 receptions.

Moreover, Carolina’s D.J. Moore (No. 24 in 2018) had 788 receiving yards as a rookie to set the stage for three consecutive seasons of 1,100-plus yards. Atlanta’s Ridley (No. 26 in 2018), who has been suspended for the 2022 season for gambling on NFL games, scored 10 touchdowns as a rookie and generated 1,374 yards in 2020.

Of course, the Packers have a pair of picks in the second round, as well. The remarkable history of Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb and Adams shows the Packers don’t have to put all their eggs in their first-round basket.