One Big Move Will Determine Whether Packers Can Crash Chiefs’ Dynasty

Of course the Green Bay Packers can compete with the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers, who battled in a thrilling Super Bowl. But can they get past the 49ers and dethrone the Chiefs?

GREEN BAY, Wis. – There’s no reason why the Green Bay Packers should not contend for a Super Bowl championship in 2024. After all, they went toe to toe with the Super Bowl teams of 2023, beating the Kansas City Chiefs in December but losing to the San Francisco 49ers in the playoffs in January.

Obviously, a lot of things will have to break in Green Bay’s direction in order for it to hoist its fifth Lombardi Trophy. The list includes, but is not limited to:

• Jordan Love was a giant question mark when he replaced Aaron Rodgers. Not anymore. His greatness is practically taken for granted given how well he played down the stretch as well as the playoff victory over Dallas.

Greatness isn’t guaranteed, though. It must be earned. Can Love play as brilliantly for a full season as he did down the stretch? There is every reason to believe the answer is yes.

• While the Packers endured some key injuries – running back Aaron Jones, cornerback Jaire Alexander and receiver Christian Watson missed big stretches of the season – they were relatively healthy.

Including the playoffs, the offensive line started the final 15 games together. The five-man defensive line played every game. Keeping Jones on the field and feeling strong for the stretch run will be critical. Finding solutions to the hamstring injuries that sidelined Watson and cornerback Eric Stokes for big chunks of the season will be important, as well.

The new strength and conditioning coordinator will play a vital role. So, too, will luck. Niners linebacker Dre Greenlaw tore his Achilles on Sunday simply running onto the field.

• With limited money to spend in free agency, general manager Brian Gutekunst needs another big draft. Armed with five picks in the first three rounds, he’s got the firepower to add at least a few instant-impact players. Safety, cornerback, offensive line and running back must be addressed.

• Coach Matt LaFleur must find a way to beat his friend and nemesis, 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan. Shanahan’s 49ers bounced the Packers in the 2019 NFC Championship Game in San Francisco, a divisional playoff game at Lambeau Field in 2021 and a divisional playoff game at San Francisco in 2023. The 49ers might be the class of the NFC but their lead over Green Bay is anything but insurmountable.

• Whether it’s Anders Carlson or someone else, the Packers must field a reliable kicker.

All those issues take a back seat to this one: Did LaFleur hire a Super Bowl-caliber defensive coordinator when he pulled Jeff Hafley away from Boston College?

While Patrick Mahomes was the Most Valuable Player of the Chiefs’ overtime victory over the 49ers, defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo was the Most Valuable Person.

The 49ers led the Chiefs 10-0 late in the first half before Spagnuolo’s defense took over. The Chiefs during the second half allowed 117 yards and 1-of-6 on third down. The best non-quarterback offensive player on the field, 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey, was limited to 21 yards on seven carries and 7 yards on one reception.

More than the numbers, when the Chiefs absolutely, positively needed a stop, they got a stop. That’s the hallmark of all the great defenses.

At the start of the third quarter, the 49ers intercepted Mahomes and started with the ball on the precipice of field-goal range. However, the Chiefs forced a three-and-out punt to avoid falling behind by two scores.

Late in regulation, with the score tied at 16, the 49ers drove into field-goal range. On third-and-5 at the 2-minute warning, Trent McDuffie’s well-timed slot blitz forced a critical incompletion. Had the Niners converted, they could have drained most of the clock to kick the go-ahead field goal. Instead, thanks to Spagnuolo’s perfect call, Mahomes had 1:43 to answer and force overtime.

In overtime, the 49ers won the toss and drove deep into the red zone. On second-and-4 the 9, former Packers defensive tackle Mike Pennel stuffed McCaffrey. On third down, Chris Jones stormed into the backfield to force an incompletion. The 49ers settled for the go-ahead field goal, which set the stage for Mahomes’ championship-winning drive.

“The one that’s always been important to me is the points allowed,” Spagnuolo said before the game. “I don’t even worry about the total yards. We focus on the points allowed, our third down, red zone, turnovers, two-minute, all the situational things. If we can lead the league in those, the rest will take care of itself. Let’s face it, the No. 1 job of any defensive unit is to limit the amount of points that are scored. That gives your team a chance to win.”

Too often under Joe Barry, his defenses turned soft in those critical, defining moments.

In the Week 2 loss at Atlanta, the Falcons scored on four consecutive drives to win the game. In the Week 3 win against New Orleans, the Packers survived on a missed field goal. In the Week 11 victory over the Chargers, the Packers survived when rookie receiver Quentin Johnston dropped what would have been the go-ahead touchdown pass. In Week 14 at the Giants, the Packers lost on a walk-off field goal. In the Week 16 win at Carolina, the Panthers scored three touchdowns in a span of four possessions and needed 1 more second to have a shot at a game-tying field goal.

Finally, there was the playoff loss at San Francisco. The Packers led 21-17 when the Niners took possession at their 31 with 6:18 to go. The 49ers were like a hot knife threw a block of cheese. On a 12-play, 69-yard scoring drive that consumed 5:11, Brock Purdy was 6-of-7 passing and the Niners converted three times on third down, the last of which being McCaffrey’s 6-yard touchdown.

“If you don’t step up defensively in the playoffs, you don’t go very far, in my opinion,” Spagnuolo said. “No matter how good your offense is, you’ve got to give it back to them without allowing the other team many points.”

Will the Packers have that type of coordinator with Hafley? As a position coach, his NFL defenses ranged from mediocre to bad. As defensive coordinator at Ohio State, his star-studded defense was the best in that nation. At Boston College, his undermanned defenses played like, well, undermanned defenses.

His track record shows he’ll be much more like Spagnuolo than Barry on the aggressiveness scale. It’s not about blitzing, though. It’s about calling the right blitz at the right time. That’s what Spagnuolo did on Sunday to beat the brilliant Shanahan and the talented 49ers.

Standing back and getting punched in the face is a sure way to lose, especially against the elite teams that will stand between the Packers and the Super Bowl. Unlike Barry, Hafley will come out swinging. We’ll see if that’s enough for the Packers to fight their way past the 49ers and knock out the Chiefs to win that elusive 14th NFL championship.

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