One Day to Kickoff: 1 Big Packers vs. Vikings Preview

Expectations vs. Vegas. Marrying plays. Jones, Cook and shoddy run defenses. Third down and a typically young roster. All of that and much more in our gigantic Week 1 preview.

GREEN BAY, Wis. – The 2019 Green Bay Packers were one of the biggest surprises in the NFL in going 13-3, winning the NFC North and reaching the NFC Championship Game.

If the 2020 Packers have comparable results, they’d once again be a big surprise.

For all they accomplished last season, little is expected of the Packers. At Westgate SuperBook, the Packers are 2/1 to win the NFC North. Their Week 1 opponent, the Minnesota Vikings, is the favorite at 3/2. After seemingly not addressing the major needs, the Packers drifted from 20/1 to win the Super Bowl to 30/1.

Not even Packers fans have much in the way of expectations. The Packers are one of the most popular franchises in the NFL and, therefore, generally one of the most popular among bettors. However, their over/under win total recently dipped from 9.0 to 8.5.

“Green Bay is one of the more public teams,” Ed Salmons, the vice president of risk management at SuperBook, said this week. “There’s so much Midwestern money that comes in on Minnesota and Green Bay. We’ve seen some Minnesota money this year but we really haven’t seen a lot of Green Bay money yet. By us opening that season wins total at nine, some of our sharper players have bet the under on that and I’m not surprised. So, we went to 8 1/2 to get some under money. We agree with the sharp players as far as Green Bay being one of those teams that’s just due for a regression.”

Regression. That’s the operative word surrounding the Packers entering this season. Green Bay went 13-3 on the strength of an 8-1 record in one-score games. It was blessed with a relatively healthy roster. Incredibly, it was outgained on the season. The first two of those facts are hard to replicate. The third shows a team that wasn’t nearly as dominant as its record would indicate.

“If you look at what Green Bay was before last year started as far as their wins, the other lucky team last year was Seattle. When a team wins 11 games and their net point differential was like plus-12, that’s just pure luck,” Salmons said. “I think two years ago, the Bears were like plus-30 in turnovers – some insane amount. History and regression has taught that just throw that out and it’s a random event and they’ll play back to where they should be.”

Quarterback Aaron Rodgers has heard the naysayers and doubters. If the Packers are underdogs, it’s a role Rodgers will embrace.

“I like where we’re at as far as kind of flying under the radar even though we went 13-3 last year,” Rodgers said. “We’ve got a chance to prove what kind of team we are to start the season out on Sunday, and I look forward to the opportunity.”

Happy Marriage: While the reasons for regression are obvious, there are logical reasons why the Packers should be Super Bowl contenders.

That starts with this being Year 2 together for Rodgers and coach Matt LaFleur. As an offense, the Packers were actually a bit worse under LaFleur than they were during the final year under coach Mike McCarthy. If Green Bay’s going to be appreciably better on offense, the improvement will have to come within ostensibly the same group of players and coaches as a year ago.

The hoped-for improvement begins with LaFleur’s commitment to run the offense he wants to run. LaFleur arrived in Green Bay intent on stringing together a bunch of players that look the same but are different. For the easiest possible example, imagine Aaron Jones in the backfield and Marquez Valdes-Scantling motioning from left to right. On Play 1, it’s a handoff to Jones but the potential jet sweep to Valdes-Scantling freezes the defense for a moment. On Play 2, everything looks the same but it’s a handoff to Valdes-Scantling. On Play 3, Rodgers fakes the handoff and throws the ball.

“In this offense, it’s marrying up the pass game with the run game and making everything the same – releases when you’re running routes to running off the ball when you’re running the ball,” tight end Marcedes Lewis said. “Everything has to look the same. When you can do that, it gives a defense trouble because they have no idea what you’re doing.”

It’s a goal the offense didn’t meet often enough last year, though. The key for improving it is the marrying up of something else. LaFleur this week said Rodgers has “pretty much got free rein” to control the game at the line of scrimmage. So, it’s the marrying up of what Rodgers sees on a particular play with LaFleur’s big-picture game plan.

Perhaps that’s where Rodgers’ second year with LaFleur will pay the greatest dividends.

“I think he’s got an excellent handle on what we’re trying to get done and why,” LaFleur said on Friday. “And I think you have to have that from that position, especially when you do have that ability to get us in and out of certain plays and whatever it might be. But he’s an extension of our coaching staff, and he’s put in a lot of time and a lot of work and, obviously, he’s played the game at the highest of levels for a long, long, long, long time. We’re obviously very, very fortunate to have a guy of that caliber, not only as a player and the talent level but just the way his mind works. I’ve never been around anybody that can pick stuff up as quickly as he can. And not only that, but to process what’s going on out on the field, because that, there are so many different variables that you’ve got to pay attention to when you’re out there in the heat of the battle.”

Rodgers found positives in the online offseason that perhaps outweigh the hundreds of lost practice reps. Long conversations via Zoom with LaFleur, offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett and quarterbacks coach Luke Getsy led to a wider understanding of the offense and stronger bonds between coaches and quarterback.

“He’s been super-creative this offseason,” Rodgers said of LaFleur.

Good-Bye, Old Friend: Packers left tackle David Bakhtiari grew to relish his twice-yearly battles against Minnesota defensive end Everson Griffen. However, the Vikings allowed Griffen to sign with Dallas in free agency. Last week, they replaced him by acquiring Yannick Ngakoue from Jacksonville. They’ve met only once, in 2016, when Ngakoue was a rookie. In 50 snaps, he had two tackles and one quarterback hit.

“I do have to lean on my memory of Yannick as a rookie but, obviously, I think he’s come a long way since his rookie year,” Bakhtiari said. “So, just kind of watching some old film of him trying to get a refresher, while also getting refreshed on the Minnesota Vikings’ overall scheme.”

Bakhtiari’s come a long way over the years, too, both physically and mentally. To be sure, his strength and technical refinement have played a role in him being a four-time All-Pro, but his wealth of experience has given him, in his words, a “photographic memory” to use in his preparation.

“At this point, you pick up on a lot of tendencies and you start grouping things together,” he said. “I’ll use the Vikings, for example, when they did (acquire) Yannick, my mind immediately went to the Jacksonville game and I had flashes of about four plays that really stuck in my head and the type of things he was doing. It kind of threw me for a loop when they told me his size and measureables. I was like, ‘That’s a lot different than what I remember,’ but that was in 2016 so that’s four years ago. You go to the film and you can really pick up little nuances and it explains a lot to you.”

Clamping Down on Cook: Vikings running back Dalvin Cook finished 10th in the NFL with 1,135 rushing yards and fourth with 13 rushing touchdowns last season. He had at least 110 rushing yards in five of the first seven games, including 154 yards on 20 attempts in Week 2 at Lambeau Field.

He’ll face a run defense that finished 24th last season with 4.67 yards allowed per carry and got blown off the field by San Francisco in the NFC Championship Game. Minnesota likes to run the football (fourth in attempts last season), so it’s game plan probably is not a secret.

With mostly the same personnel, Green Bay’s four-pronged approach to an improved run defense includes fundamentals, scheme and the addition of linebacker Christian Kirksey, who gives the Packers more range than Blake Martinez provided.

“He just loves football, passionate, natural leader,” defensive coordinator Mike Pettine said. “Guys gravitate to him, and we saw that when we drafted him in Cleveland. Here’s a guy that’s had some time in the league and he just knows the NFL game now. Some of the guys come in as rookies and they have no idea. We say that they don’t know that they don’t know, but you learn. And he certainly, to the surprise of no one, has made it as long as he has in the league because of just who he is. He’s a professional, he takes care of himself, he’s everything that you’re looking for. He’s smart, he’s tough. I know he’s had his [injury] issues but we’re certainly looking forward to getting the best of him this year.”

The fourth prong is mentality. “Having a good run defense is about attitude,” Kirksey said. There’s more to it than that, obviously, but that’s the starting point.

“You have to have that attitude, you have to have that mentality,” Pettine said. “You have to want to stop the run. You have to take it personal when teams are able to run the ball on you. So, the mentality is a big part of it. There’s a lot of different things you can do schematically but, whatever we’re doing, we’ll always say to the players, ‘It’s not necessarily what we’re playing. It’s how we’re playing it.’ And we want to get to the point, just from a technique, fundamentals mentality standpoint, that we can line up in the most basic front and basic coverage and still be able to stop the run just for those reasons. And then when you throw a scheme on top of it that’s designed to defend a certain team, then hopefully your results will be real positive.”

Mr. Jones vs. Minnesota: Jones ran circles around the Vikings last season, too, with 116 yards and one touchdown in Week 2 and 154 yards and two touchdowns in Week 16.

“Just in the type of back that he is, he’s able to find quick seams that Minnesota, they close seams down pretty well (but) he was able to slip through a few things and break off a few runs,” running backs coach Ben Sirmans said. “But every year it’s different. Obviously, we had some success last year, but this is a different year and, obviously, we know they’ll be ready to stop the run game.”

For all the focus on Green Bay’s run defense, Minnesota’s run defense will be under the microscope, too. That unit had been anchored the past few seasons by massive defensive tackle Linval Joseph. Joseph signed in free agency with the Chargers, with Minnesota countering by adding a similar but younger player in free agency in Michael Pierce. Pierce, however, opted out, and that’s left with Minnesota with Shamar Stephen and Jaleel Johnson as the No. 1 tandem at defensive tackle. Ngakoue is a step down from Griffen as a run defender, as well. Their play will be key in letting ace linebackers Eric Kendricks and Anthony Barr do their thing.

“Kendricks and Barr inside have been very consistent for so many years,” Rodgers said. “Really good, heady football players, smart, tough, instinctive. I’ve always felt like Kendricks is a guy who plays at a Pro Bowl level every single year, but a lot of times in the league, especially at that position, it’s tough to get in when you’re competing against some of these other guys who’ve got big names and have had big-time careers. But I think Eric has had a fantastic career. He’s around the ball. He’s good in coverage. He’s a really smart, sure tackler.”

Lots of Losses: Joseph and Griffen weren’t the only departures. Gone are the top three cornerbacks from last year, as well. With Danielle Hunter on injured reserve, Vikings coach Mike Zimmer’s defense has more questions than usual after a sixth consecutive season of finishing in the top 10 in points allowed.

Not that he minds. Like any competitor, Zimmer likes the challenge.

“I remember one year in Dallas we had a lot of no-name guys and we finished fourth in the league in defense,” he said in a Zoom with Packers reporters. “That’s just part of NFL football. Guys are going to move onto other teams or they’re going to retire or are you going to pick some guys and move on from ‘em. So, that part is really not new. We’ve been very, very fortunate that we had a number of guys that we had for that long and it was obviously a good thing. 

“But a little bit, yeah, it does – it kind of rejuvenates you as a coach to kind of prove that you can still do this with other players than what you’ve had in the past. It’s kind of fun to work with young guys that eager to learn. Not saying anything against the guys that we had, because I loved all those guys, too, but yeah, it is kind of exciting.”

Third Down: A key for Green Bay’s offense, not only on Sunday but this season, will be performing better on third down. During the second quarter of last season, when Green Bay ranked second in the NFL with 32.5 points per game, it ranked 11th in third-down efficiency at 44.7 percent. During the second half of the season, it plunged to a 27th-ranked 33.9 percent. Not surprisingly, that showed up on the scoreboard with a 23rd-ranked 20.1 points per game and just one game of more than 24 points.

“We’ve got to be better in situational football,” LaFleur said. “And specifically on third-down situations, in order to stay on the field.”

Defensively, Minnesota was No. 1 in the NFL on third down in 2017 and 2018 before tumbling to No. 19 last season.

A key for the Packers will be the play of Allen Lazard. Even though he really didn’t see the field until the fourth quarter of Game 6 against Detroit, he finished second on the team in third-down receptions (13). He had more third-down catches that resulted in first downs (12) then fellow receivers Geronimo Allison (six) and Marquez Valdes-Scantling (five) combined.

“I’m not trying to be a third-down specialist, so to speak. I think I’m an every-down specialist,” Lazard said. “I expect the ball every play, and it just happens to be that third down, I get more targets. Obviously, I’ve been able to capitalize on that situation, but that’s something I’ve been doing throughout my entire career, going back to college, high school. Just going out there with that attack mind-set.”

Smith Triplets: From Week 1 at Chicago, when Preston Smith (1.5) and Za’Darius Smith (1.0) combined for 2.5 sacks and six quarterback hits, to Week 16 at Minnesota, when Za’Darius Smith had 3.5 sacks, the Smith Bros. made mincemeat of the Packers’ division rivals.

That group could be even stronger with the potential emergence of last year’s first-round pick, Rashan Gary. In the last trip to Minneapolis, Gary played only 15 snaps. He figures to have a much bigger role after a strong training camp.

“R.G. has been doing a lot of great things,” Za’Darius Smith said. “I was out for a couple weeks and he got a chance to really run with the 1s and get a lot of live reps. And, man, I can tell you this man, he’s explosive man and coming on. And I really think it could be a trio. We might have to change his last name.”

Round 3: This will be LaFleur’s third game against Zimmer, with LaFleur victorious in both matchups last season. As will be the case against Chicago’s Matt Nagy and Detroit’s Matt Patricia, as well, the cat-and-mouse game between coaches will only get more intriguing as his career progresses.

“I just think you approach it like you do every other game,” LaFleur said. “Certainly, the more familiar somebody is with what you’re trying to get done, it does make it more challenging. Then again, it’s a double-edged sword for both of us. You try not to overthink it. You try to think about what is it exactly we’re going to be facing, and how do you put your players within the scheme and attack the scheme to try to get a favorable outcome.”

Surprise! Packers are Young: In an examination of the rosters that emerged on Saturday night by Philly Voice NFL writer Jimmy Kempski, the average member of the Packers is 25.5 years old. For the second year in a row, that meant Green Bay had the NFL’s fifth-youngest roster. Green Bay ranked 10th in 2018 (25.7), 11th in 2017 (25.7) and third in 2016 (25.4).

Seven of the team’s nine draft picks made the roster, with third-round tight end Josiah Deguara perhaps the most likely to earn an immediate role. However, with an abbreviated training camp and without any preseason games, there is some uncertainty.

“I think they’ve earned their roles up to this point,” LaFleur said of the young, unproven players on the roster. “But, certainly, things change on a weekly basis, and the more that you see somebody out there and the more trust you get in a particular player, the more you’re going to give them, and the more confident you are they’re able to go out there and execute. Ultimately, that’s what it’s about. It’s about trying to make sure these guys understand what’s going on so they can go out there and perform to the best of their ability.”

Streaking: The Chiefs made it six consecutive season-opening wins on Thursday. The next-longest streak belongs to Green Bay with five in a row. Minnesota has won four in a row.

"I don’t know how you can play this game and not get butterflies before every game,” Rodgers said. 

“It’s maybe a little bit more in the first game, but it’s that excitement, it’s the love, the love meets the excitement. You know they’re putting 15 on that clock. Period says ‘1’ and you’re about to head to the field. It’s a pretty special feeling, especially the older you get as you realize how long you’ve been at this, how much you’ve learned over the years. A lot of memories kind of flood your brain quickly from other opening games or certain games at certain fields, so it will be definitely an exciting time to start the season off.”

It’s a Big One: The 54 Super Bowl winners went 44-9-1 in Week 1 on their way to winning the championship.

Since 1978, when the NFL went to the 16-game schedule, and excluding the strike-interrupted 1982 season, teams that are victorious in Week 1 reach the playoffs 52.2 percent of the time. The losing teams, on the other hand, make the postseason at only a 24.0 percent clip. In fact, more Week 1 winners won division championships (196) than Week 1 losers reached the playoffs (148).

Noteworthy Numbers: Here are five numbers to remember for Sunday.

- 1: This will be the first time Green Bay has opened the season at Minnesota.

- 7: In Week 16, Green Bay held Minnesota to seven first downs, the fewest gained by the Vikings at home since 1971.

- 47-18-1: That’s Rodgers’ career record against NFC North teams, which includes last year’s six-game sweep and also includes a 14-8-1 mark vs. the Vikings. “Obviously, that’s the best way to ensure a playoff spot is to dominate your division,” Rodgers said. “We’ve won the division title six times in my 12 years. We’ve won it with as few as eight wins and as many as 15. We won the Super Bowl without winning the division and we’ve made the playoffs without winning the division, as well. But it is definitely the easiest way to secure a home playoff spot. The NFC North has always been characterized by a number of really strong defenses and elite players, especially on that side of the ball. We know that, especially in two of our stadiums, it can get really cold in the winter time. There was a premium on ball security and dominate the line of scrimmage, and we’ve done a good job taking care of the football over the years and we’ve won some really important games in some cold-weather environments.”

- 52.9 and 58.8: Those were the passer ratings by Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins against Green Bay last season. Those were by far his worst performances of the season. His third-worst game was an 87.8 vs. Seattle. Every other game was at least 91.

- 46,946: Rodgers this season can become the 11th player in NFL history with 50,000 career passing yards.

The Last Word Goes To: LaFleur, who downplayed the lack of fans in the stands. “These guys are professionals and they love to compete. There’s a reason that they’ve made it to this level and it’s not because of some people sitting in the stands. It’s because they’ve gone out there and consistently performed at a high level. That’s the expectation. I do think when you’re out there, you’ve having fun, you’re making plays, it just kind of happens organically. That’s what we’re looking for. We’re looking for guys that want to go out there and compete and just have fun doing it.”

Countdown to Kickoff Series

Five Days: Five Keys to Game

Four Days: Four Questions from Behind Enemy Lines

Three Days: Three Reasons for Concern

Two Days: Two X-Factors